How many games will Southern Miss win in ’18? Here are projections for all 12 games.

The Southern Miss football team walks into 2018 as a squad that has a shot at another strong season after going 8-5 a year ago, but there’s also the potential that things could head south.

The quarterback position was up for grabs leaving spring practice with three different players likely in the running for the starting job — redshirt senior Kwadra Griggs, junior Keon Howard and redshirt sophomore Jack Abraham.

Howard transferred to Tulane and Griggs was placed under an indefinite suspension on Aug. 11, leaving Abraham as the likely starter for the Sept. 1 season opener against Jackson State.

While Abraham appears up to the task, he has yet to play on the FBS level. He spent his first 18 months of college at Louisiana Tech and played last season at Northwest Mississippi Community College. He’s backed up by two other players who have never played in a college game — redshirt freshman Marcelo Rodriguez and freshman Tate Whatley.

While the quarterback position offers some uncertainty for USM, there should be improved overall depth for the team across the board.

All the returning starters are lost in the secondary on defense and the first-string receiving corps will have to be replaced, but neither area should be much of a weakness.

Most projections out of Las Vegas have USM at the over/under of 6.5 wins — a reasonable figure.

I took the time to go through all 12 games on the Southern Miss schedule this season to project wins and losses and give the level of confidence I have with each pick.

Sept 1 — Jackson State — Hal Mumme is now the offensive coordinator at JSU, but last I checked, Tim Couch isn’t his quarterback. Jackson State is coming off a 3-9 season.

Projection — Win.

Confidence level — It’s a lock.

Sept. 8 — Louisiana-Monroe — The Golden Eagles traveled to ULM last season and came home with a 28-17 victory. The final score was not indicative of how much USM dominated the game. The Golden Eagles out-gained ULM 534-330 and the game was never in much doubt. ULM is considered a potential bowl squad, but I don’t see the Warhawks as much of a threat to win in Hattiesburg. Southern Miss tallied 284 rushing yards at ULM last year. While former running back Ito Smith is now an Atlanta Falcon, USM has a chance to be a dangerous team on the ground again, thanks to five solid options at running back.

Projection — Win.

Confidence level — It could flip the other way.

Sept. 15 — at Appalachian State — The Mountaineers are expected to compete for a Sun Belt Conference title this season and Vegas has their over/under for wins at 8.5. Outside of the Auburn game, this may be the toughest road trip that the Golden Eagles make this season. The Mountaineers will also be breaking in a new QB.

Projection — Loss.

Confidence level — It could flip the other way.

Sept. 22 — Rice — The Owls are in the process of learning Stanford’s power-scheme offense under first-year head coach Mike Bloomgren. Rice gave USM everything it could handle in a 43-34 game in Houston last year, but it will still be in a transitional phase in Game 4.

Projection — Win.

Confidence level — It’s a lock.

Sept. 29 — at Auburn — If USM has any shot on the road, Abraham will have to play the game of his life.

Projection — Loss.

Confidence level — It’s a lock.

Oct. 13 — at North Texas — UNT traveled to Hattiesburg last season and picked up a decisive 43-28 win, pulling away in the second half. While USM is replacing key personnel across the board on offense, UNT has good experience at its skill positions, including quarterback Mason Fine. I’d expect a better defensive effort out of USM this season, but that may not be enough on the road.

Projection — Loss.

Confidence level — It could flip the other way.

Oct. 20 — UTSA — Pete Golding is no longer the defensive coordinator at UTSA after joining the staff at Alabama. Unless the Roadrunners make significant strides on offense, I don’t expect them to win in Hattiesburg.

Projection — Win.

Confidence level — It could flip the other way.

Oct. 27 — at Charlotte — Charlotte made a big statement with a 38-27 win at USM in 2016 and then promptly fell on its face with a 1-11 campaign in 2017, losing 66-21 at Southern Miss. Charlotte coach Brad Lambert still has his job.

Projection — Win.

Confidence level — It’s a lock.

Nov. 3 — Marshall — The Thundering Herd rebounded from a 3-9 season to go 8-5 last year, but I still don’t have a good feeling about the direction of the team. Aside from Colorado State in the bowl game, Marshall couldn’t finish off good teams last year. After losing five straight to Marshall, the Golden Eagles have won two consecutive games. I give USM a slight advantage in Hattiesburg.

Projection — Win.

Confidence level — Coin’s toss.

Nov. 10 — at UAB — The Blazers thumped USM 30-12 in Hattiesburg last season and they return pretty much everyone from the 2017 squad. This will be the Golden Eagles’ most difficult road trip in C-USA.

Projection — Loss.

Confidence level — It’s a lock.

Nov. 17 — Louisiana Tech — Yes, Louisiana Tech should be a better football team than USM this season. No, I don’t think the Bulldogs will win in Hattiesburg this year. USM has won three consecutive games in a rivalry that has become one of the better series in C-USA. Abraham signed with Louisiana Tech out of Oxford High School, but never quite meshed with the staff there. He will have something to prove and the Golden Eagles have had the ball bounce their way against the Bulldogs since 2015.

Projection — Win.

Confidence level — Coin’s toss.

Nov. 24 — at UTEP — The Miners have a long way to go under first-year head coach Dana Dimel.

Projection — Win.

Confidence level — It’s a lock.

FINAL PROJECTION FOR SOUTHERN MISS: I see the Golden Eagles finishing 8-4 and 6-2 in Conference USA, but it’s hard to see them doing much better than that mark.

This story was originally published August 21, 2018 at 10:31 AM.