Live updates: Sally slows down, gets better organized and is expected to get stronger
10 p.m.
Tropical Storm Sally is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday with more strengthening likely before landfall, the National Hurricane Center said in its latest update.
Hurricane conditions are expected to start by late Monday. Life-threatening storm surge, rainfall of 8-16 inches with isolated amounts of 24 inches and tornadoes are possible through Tuesday.
Sally is becoming better organized, and conditions are favorable for strengthening, the NHC said. Sally’s winds were still reported at 60 mph, but the wind shear over the storm is moving away, the NHC said, “resulting in a more favorable upper-level wind pattern for strengthening.”
Sally also slowed down slightly, now moving northwest at 8 mph. The storm could also slow down more overnight Monday, the NHC said.
“The new (10 p.m.) track forecast is slower and east of the previous one based on the initial position/motion in the latest motion,” according to the NHC release. “However, the official forecast still lies west of the consensus aids, so further adjustments may be necessary overnight.”
Storm threats include:
- extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge
- rainfall of 8-16 inches with isolated amounts of up to 24 inches
- tornadoes
- flash flooding
Changes in Watches and Warnings:
▪ Hurricane Warning extended east from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to the Mississippi/Alabama Border, including Jackson County.
▪ Storm Surge Warning extended east from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida Border, including Mobile Bay.
7 p.m.
Mississippi Gulf Coast schools have started announcing closures, and some districts will remain open Monday.
Hancock County has announced a mandatory evacuation for low-lying areas.
4 p.m.
The storm’s structure has not changed Sunday, the NHC said, but there has been an increase near convection near the center which “may be a harbinger of the expected strengthening phase.”
The wind shear is “beginning to relax” and is forecast to keep decreasing, allowing the storm to strengthen over the warm Gulf waters.
Models show Sally will continue moving west-northwest through Monday, then begin to drift north.
“It is important not to focus too much on these small track changes and to the exact forecast track itself, as impacts are expected to extend far from the center,” the NHC said.
Up to 24 inches of rain could fall on parts of South Mississippi and up to 5-10 inches of rain could extend well inland over Hattiesburg and the Pine Belt, causing flash flooding and flooded rivers.
Tornadoes also are possible.
What are the impacts of 15-25 inches of rain?
- Homes and businesses will be flooded.
- Flooding will prompt evacuations and rescues.
- Flooded roads could make travel and potential evacuations dificult.
- Some roads may erode from underneath creating hidden dangers.
- Locations that normally don’t flood will be covered in water.
— National Weather Service in New Orleans
Changes to Watches and Warnings:
▪ A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for George, Greene, Perry, Stone, Covington, Forrest, Franklin, Jefferson Davis, Jones, Lamar, Lawrence, Lincoln, and Marion counties.
1 p.m.
▪ The National Hurricane Center did not change any watches or warnings in its 1 p.m. update.
Major updates are issued every six hours with active cyclones: 10 a.m., 4 p.m., 10 p.m. and 4 a.m. Central Time. And any other changes to advisories are issued between those updates, at 7 a.m., 1 p.m., 7 p.m. and 1 a.m.
▪ Gulf Islands National Seashore has closed the Mississippi mainland and islands, with a mandatory evacuation for the Davis Bayou campground.
Closed areas include the Davis Bayou area, Petit Bois, West Petit Bois, Horn, and Ship islands, as well as the National Park Service-owned portion of Cat Island. The Naval Live Oaks mainland area of the seashore in Florida will remain open.
11 a.m
▪ Mandatory boat evacuations have been issued in marinas and harbors.
The city of Biloxi, Long Beach, Gulfport and Pass Christian issued mandatory evacuations of all boats in harbors and marinas.
In Biloxi and Gulfport, residents have until 3 p.m. Sunday to evacuate their boats as well as any trailers and vehicles.
In Pascagoula, the city is advising boaters to evacuate or secure their boats in the Inner Harbor.
In addition, Biloxi is closing vehicle and pier access for tenants or recreational or commercial boaters as of 3 p.m. Sunday.
▪ Cities all along the Coast have declared local state of emergencies in advance of the storm.
10 a.m.
Tropical Storm Sally is forecast to be a Category 2 hurricane at landfall, the National Hurricane Center said Sunday morning.
The storm is strengthening, moving faster, and wind shear that would help weaken it is expected to die down later Sunday, data from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft shows.
Models are in agreement on the track, which has shifted west overnight. The eye is predicted to hit southeast Louisiana, putting the Mississippi Coast on the east side of the storm. The east side is known as the “dirty side” and it’s more dangerous because wind and water is carried up directly from the Gulf of Mexico.
Models are not in agreement on the timing, and how fast the storm could intensify. The NHC said the intensity forecast is “extremely tricky” as Sally could rapidly strengthen just before landfall, and a Category 3 possibility “can’t be dismissed.”
Warnings and Watches
▪ Hurricane Warning: Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border, including Hancock, Harrison, Jackson and Pearl River counties and New Orleans. Hurricane conditions are expected by early Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions likely by Monday. Jackson County is under a Hurricane Watch.
▪ Storm Surge Warning: Port Fourchon, Louisiana, to the Alabama/Florida border including Hancock, Harrison and Jackson counties and Mobile Bay.
Storm surge of 7-11 feet is possible from the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, including Hancock and Harrison counties, including Biloxi, Gulfport, Bay St. Louis, Waveland, Long Beach, Pass Christian. There is 4-7 feet possible from Ocean Springs to the Mississippi/Alabama border in Jackson County.
“On top of high tide, plus add wave action, all our rivers and the Bay of Biloxi and Bay of St. Louis will be dangerous including creeks, canals and streams,” the Harrison County Emergency Management Agency said. “The sand beach, harbors and U.S. 90 will be impassable as this system moves toward us Monday evening.”
The NHC says a Storm Surge Warning means “there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, check the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov.
“This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.”
▪ Tropical Storm Warning: Mississippi/Albama border to Indian Pass, Florida, as well as Mississippi’s Amite, Pike and Walthall counties. Also from Intracoastal City, Louisiana ,to west of Morgan City
▪ Tropical Storm Watch: Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River, Florida, and south-central Mississippi including George, Greene, Perry, Stone, Covington, Forrest, Franklin, Jefferson Davis, Jones, Lamar, Lawrence, Lincoln, and Marion counties
▪ Flash Flood Watch: All of southern and part of southwest and central Mississippi, southern Alabama, southeastern Louisiana, and the Florida panhandle. Significant flash flooding and minor to isolated major river flooding is likely across portions of the central Gulf Coast from Monday through the middle of the week.
Mississippi counties include Hancock, Harrison, Jackson, Stone, George, Pearl River, Amite, Pike, Walthall, Copiah, Rankin, Scott, Simpson, Smith, Clarke, Jasper, Lauderdale, Newton, Jefferson Davis, Lawrence, Lincoln, Marion, Covington, Forrest, Jones, Lamar and Franklin.
“Tropical Storm Sally is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 6-12 inches with isolated amounts of 20 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast between the western Florida Panhandle and far southeast Louisiana from Monday into the middle of the week.
“Rainfall of 4 to 8 inches is possible farther inland over portions of Mississippi and Alabama. Sally is expected to be a slow-moving system resulting in significant flash flooding. Flash, urban and rapid onset flooding along small streams, and minor to isolated major flooding on rivers is likely.”
Estimated timing of Tropical Storm Sally
▪ Sunday evening - Flash flood watch begins and bands of rain could start arriving
▪ 8 a.m. Monday - Tropical-storm force winds arrive on the Mississippi Coast, with the eastern areas likely to feel effects first
▪ Monday evening - Hurricane conditions could begin
▪ 8 a.m. Tuesday - Estimated landfall in southeastern Louisiana, hurricane-force winds near the center of the storm.
▪ Tuesday evening - Storm will still be slowly moving over southeast Louisiana and the Mississippi Coast
Sand bag locations
Harrison County
- Harrison County Road Department at 11076 Lorraine Road
- D’Iberville Work Center at 190085 1st Ave. W
- Lyman Work Center at 15001 County Farm Road
- Woolmarket Work Center at 16395 Old Woolmarket Road
- District 4 Work Center at 8300 34th Ave. in Gulfport
- Long Beach Work Center at 605 N. Seal Ave.
- Ken Combs Pier parking lot at Courthouse Road and U.S. 90
D’Iberville at the north end of the I-110 bridge, south of Rodriguez St.
Orange Grove Community Center on Dedeaux Road, the Fire Station on 42nd Avenue
Intersection of Hewes Avenue and Glover Street
Hancock County
Beginning at 7 a.m. Sunday. If you need assistance, call the Hancock County Emergency Management Agency at 228-255-0942 or Hancock County Central Dispatch at 228-255-9191.
- Hancock County Horse Arena, 4184 Kiln Delisle Road
- Old Hancock County Complex, 3068 Longfellow Drive
- Lakeshore Community Center, 6440 Lower Bay Road
- Bayside Fire Department, 6215 West Hinds Street
- West Hancock Fire Department, 16006 Washington Street
- Diamondhead City Hall, 5000 Diamondhead Circle
Jackson County
- West Division Roads Department, N. Washington Avenue (Mississippi 609), Ocean Springs
- Forts Lake Fire Department, 10701 Forts Lake Road, Moss Point
- Escatawpa Fire Department, 3801 Sentinel Dr, Moss Point
- Fontainebleau Fire Department, 3901 Hwy. 57 South, Ocean Springs
- East Division Roads Department, 10825 Hwy. 63, Moss Point
- St. Andrews Fire Department, 1401 Elm Street, Ocean Springs
Ocean Springs - Public Works Department, 712 A Pine Drive
Gautier - Behind City Hall, Highway 90
Pascagoula - Jackson County Fairgrounds, 2902 Shortcut Road
- Moss Point - New Central Fire Station, 4204 Bellview Street
- Ocean Springs - Civic Center, 3730 Bienville Boulevard
- Latimer Community Center, 10908 Daisy Vestry Road, Ocean Springs
- West Jackson County Fire Department, 15324 Big Ridge Road, St. Martin
This story was originally published September 13, 2020 at 10:20 AM.
