Laura’s track could change as storm likely grows to ‘strong’ hurricane in Gulf, NWS says
The “cone of uncertainty” is still — uncertain — and southeast Lousiana and the Mississippi Gulf Coast should keep an eye on Tropical Storm Laura as the system moves toward the Gulf of Mexico, a National Weather Service meteorologist said Sunday night.
Laura had winds of up to 60 mph Sunday night as it poured rain on Cuba, Haiti and Jamaica, the National Hurricane Center said in its 7 p.m. update.
But the storm is expected to strengthen into a hurricane by 2 a.m. Wednesday and make landfall on the Louisiana coast later that afternoon as a Category 2, according to the NHC, and could produce up to 5 to 10 inches of rainfall, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, across the west-central Gulf Coast near the Texas-Louisiana border.
But the most important thing to look at now is Laura’s large “cone of uncertainty,” which stretches from Houston to Grand Isle, said Kevin Gilmore, an NWS New Orleans meteorologist based in Slidell.
“What we want you to pay attention to here is the size of the cone. ... We don’t want you to talk about the single point of where it could be going,” he said in a Facebook Live video published by the NWS. “The main point is that impacts across southeast Louisiana do look very possible.”
Gilmore said it’s also possible Laura could re-organize and change course in the coming days after the storm moves past Cuba’s mountainous terrain and into warm Gulf water. He said the storm could be a “stronger” hurricane by Tuesday.
Atmospheric conditions like low shear and warm Gulf waters will help Laura grow, he said.
“The system can redevelop new centers, throw models off track, and if that’s the case the model could change,” Gilmore said.
Laura will move through the Gulf soon after Hurricane Marco, which is expected to skirt the Louisiana coastline most of Monday and bring heavy rains and potential flooding and storm surge to the Mississippi Coast.
The NHC said preparing for Laura could be difficult for some coastal residents who will be impacted by Marco one to two days beforehand.
Marco is not expected to strengthen beyond a Category 1 hurricane.
“This system is dealing with wind shear, keeping system from organizing and growing in strength,” Gilmore said.
Gilmore said the Coast should have a plan and prepare to evacuate if needed, as impacts from Marco will likely be felt Monday and early Tuesday morning.
“It can cause devastating flooding on the (Louisiana and Mississippi) Coast. Listen to officials and follow evacuation orders,” he said.
This story was originally published August 23, 2020 at 8:58 PM.
