A&M-LSU among top games for bettors. Can USM overcome a bad break at FAU?
Though both Mississippi schools in the SEC and the New Orleans Saints have already played, the holiday weekend is loaded with blockbuster betting attractions.
Here’s a quick look at how sharps (professional bettors) have been, and likely will be betting on game day in these TV showcases.
▪ Ohio State at Michigan (Saturday, FOX, 11 a.m.)
This potential trouble spot for national championship hopeful Ohio State has been sitting on the “dead” number of -9 all week. We say dead because so few games land on that margin. But, it’s telling that the game didn’t rise toward the key number of 10. We know sharps don’t like the Buckeyes in this price range or they would have jumped in quickly. That makes it very clear that pro bettors want Michigan, and are hoping recreational bettors lift the line. Wolverines +10 would be a sharp bet if it ever becomes available. Dog lovers may have to settle for +9.
▪ Alabama at Auburn (Saturday, CBS, 2:30 p.m.)
The market has been hopping between ‘Bama by three and 3.5 all week, suggesting percentage-driven bets. Alabama -3 draws sharp support, but so does Auburn +3.5. You regulars know three is the most important number in football betting. The math really does swing on a half-point in competitive matchups. Will the public lay points on the road with Mac Jones? That should determine where the number settles before kickoff.
▪ Texas A&M at LSU (Saturday, ESPN, 6 p.m.)
Stores opening below the key number of LSU -17 saw the line driven there in short order. Sharps clearly like the explosive Tigers at -16.5 or less. While sharp money stopped at 17, it didn’t turn toward Texas A&M yet. It might take +17.5 to bring dog lovers into the mix. High profile TV games like this often see veteran bettors waiting until the last possible second to see how many points they can get with a talented underdog.
▪ San Francisco at Baltimore (Sunday, FOX, noon)
First, let’s mention that the Ravens have moved to the top of many Super Bowl future boards since we last talked. That Monday night blowout of the Los Angeles Rams registered like a San Andreas earthquake. The Westgate in Las Vegas now has Baltimore 3/1, New England 7/2, New Orleans 4/1, San Francisco 7-1, and Kansas City 10/1 to lift the Lombardi Trophy.
Will the Ravens finally regress after five straight monster covers? Sharps aren’t betting that way. Though, those thinking about it will wait to see how many points they can get. Baltimore has been bet up from -4.5 to -6 through the week. Quants will get gradings on the favorite because its recent stats have been so spectacular. Old school guys know nothing lasts forever. They’re still licking their wounds from bucking Baltimore with the Rams this past Monday night!
▪ New England at Houston (Sunday, NBC, 7:20 p.m.)
Similar price scenario with Alabama/Auburn in that a road favorite is hopping between three and 3.5 because of the key number. New England appeals to sharps and squares at -3. Houston draws some interest with the hook. Though, both teams just lost badly in Baltimore… Houston lost a lot worse. The general public will likely give the coaching and quarterback edge to the Patriots, pending news on Tom Brady’s sore elbow.
▪ Minnesota at Seattle (Monday, ESPN, 7:15 p.m.)
These two enter the weekend in the NFC wildcard spots with stellar 8-3 and 9-2 records respectively. The winner will be a virtual lock for the playoffs. The loser will still have distance on other threats. Initial betting saw Minnesota draw the most interest at the key number of three. Should the line fall to 2.5, Seattle support would show hard. The public can’t resist the Seahawks at home (a painful urge this season). Sports books will have to figure out how they want to manage their risk.
VSiN hopes you had a great holiday feast. Those treats above sure aren’t leftovers!
Other Notes
▪ Southern Miss has been drawing support at +9 in its CUSA battle with Florida Atlantic (Saturday, NFL Network, 2:30 p.m.). That game is now trending toward closing at FAU -8.5 rather than the full nine.
Earlier this week, the Sun Herald reported on the controversial change to tie-breaking procedures should there be a three-way knot atop CUSA West with Southern Miss, UAB, and Louisiana Tech. Let’s look at the likely closing pointspreads in Saturday’s games involving those three teams…
Southern Miss +8.5 at Florida Atlantic, UAB -3 (at least) at North Texas, Louisiana Tech -20.5 (at least) vs. Texas-San Antonio. Game day action may see bettors taking favorites with obvious need like UAB and Tech.
It would be a shame if Southern Miss scored the big upset at Florida Atlantic, but failed to win its division based on a computer ratings composite nodding toward Louisiana Tech.
