C-USA’s special season has 4 baseball teams hunting regionals. Who will make the cut?
If there was such a thing as a Power 5 in college baseball, Conference USA has a strong argument to make to be considered in that group for 2021.
It has been a long time since C-USA has had four teams in the mix for not just NCAA tournament bids, but also in contention to host regional sites.
The four squads carrying the load for C-USA this season are Charlotte, Southern Miss, Louisiana Tech and Old Dominion.
Those four teams have put C-USA in position to be considered the best league outside of the four traditional powerhouse baseball conferences — the SEC, Big 12, Pac-12 and ACC. The conference RPI rankings at WarrenNolan.com put Conference USA at No. 5 in the nation, behind the No. 1 SEC, No. 2 Big 12, No. 3 ACC and No. 4 Pac-12.
All four teams made it into the USA Today Coaches Poll this week — No. 17 Charlotte, No. 18 Louisiana Tech, No. 22 Southern Miss and Nov. 25 Old Dominion.
This weekend will prove crucial for all four teams with the NCAA set to announce 20 regional host sites the week of May 10, D1Baseball.com reports. That number will be cut to 16 on May 30 — the day before the full 64-team field is announced.
In the past, the 16 regional sites were announced in late May as conference tournaments came to a close, but the NCAA decided to move that up to make sure each site is properly prepared for COVID-19 protocols.
That put the pressure on all four teams this weekend if they want to make a case to bring a regional to campus.
La. Tech baseball starts to lag
For the longest, it seemed as if Louisiana Tech (28-11, 14-6) would be the team considered the standard-bearer for the league in 2021. But the Bulldogs have lost four of their past eight and their two worst losses of the season took place this past weekend when they dropped the final two contests of a four-game series with Marshall (8-24, 4-16).
After climbing as high as No. 7 in the RPI rankings in the middle of April, La. Tech is now at No. 26 with its chances of hosting diminished even though it sits in first place in the C-USA West — half a game in front of Southern Miss (26-13, 13-6).
This weekend’s series at Middle Tennessee appears dangerous for Tech, as well. The Blue Raiders (21-17-1, 10-9-1) are perfectly capable of stealing a couple more games from the Bulldogs in Murfreesboro.
Charlotte 49ers sitting pretty
The team on the rise at the moment is Charlotte, which is ranked No. 11 in the nation in RPI after taking three out of four games in a home series against Old Dominion (28-10, 14-6) and beating North Carolina 4-1 in midweek action on Tuesday.
The 49ers (30-11, 17-3) are currently projected to host by most major media outlets that cover college baseball.
Charlotte can further bolster its resume with four games at Old Dominion this weekend to cap off an eight-game run of conference games between the 49ers and Monarchs.
ODU has a case to make
After dropping last week’s series at Charlotte, ODU (28-10, 14-6) has to put together a series win this weekend if it is to get back in the hosting discussion.
A look at ODU’s schedule shows that it doesn’t have the list of quality conference or non-conference victories that USM, Charlotte and La. Tech have at this point.
However, ODU is ranked No. 18 in RPI and that could climb with a big weekend against the 49ers in Norfolk, Virginia.
Regardless, ODU is postseason bound barring some late collapse.
Southern Miss is in the hunt
Southern Miss has flirted with with being in position to host all season long, and if not for a Game 4 loss to Western Kentucky this past Sunday, Hattiesburg may be showing up as a projected regional host this week.
USM (26-13, 13-6) is not completely out of the hosting picture, but it probably needs a sweep at Rice this weekend paired with Louisiana Tech stumbling at Middle Tennessee. It also would help if Ole Miss continues to stumble headed into the first weekend of May.
It’s not hard to envision all those things happening for the Golden Eagles.
USM was ranked No. 21 in RPI as of Wednesday, and there’s no guarantee it will receive much of an RPI boost even with a sweep of Rice.
With USM’s pitching depth, it may very well be the most dangerous C-USA team entering the postseason regardless of whether it’s hosting or a No. 2 seed elsewhere.
The NCAA has threatened to prevent Mississippi from hosting championship events over new legislation that would prevent transgender athletes from competing in school sports in accordance to their gender identity, but there has been no indication that the NCAA will follow through on that threat before the law goes into effect on July 1.
Much like the flap over the Confederate emblem on the former Mississippi state flag, it may wait until political pressure picks up to enforce a postseason ban on the state.
Projecting C-USA baseball’s postseason
Charlotte is a consensus pick to host a regional in this week’s projections, and Baseball America included Louisiana Tech as the last team in as a host as the No. 16 overall seed.
Old Dominion and USM can’t be completely counted out as regional hosts, but a good deal has to break their way and they have to be aiming for a sweep this weekend.
Here’s how I see each of the teams landing in the NCAA tournament once the field is set.
▪ Charlotte projection: 49ers earn the right to host a regional at Robert & Mariam Hayes Stadium.
▪ Louisiana Tech projection: Bulldogs land in Fort Worth as the No. 2 seed in TCU’s regional.
▪ Old Dominion projection: Monarchs head to Greenville, North Carolina, as the No. 2 seed in East Carolina’s regional.
▪ Southern Miss projection: Golden Eagles travel to Starkville as the No. 2 seed in Mississippi State’s regional.
