MS Gulf Coast is in the forecast cone for possible tropical storm Fred. Here’s the latest.
Update: The forecast track shifted east Sunday. Here’s the latest.
Tropical Depression Fred is expected to regenerate and return to tropical storm status late today or Sunday morning over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, with the entire Mississippi Coast now in the warning cone for a risk of tropical conditions beginning Monday, the National Hurricane Center says.
Fred is expected to move inland Monday night. Watches and warnings could be issued by Sunday in areas from Mississippi to the central Florida panhandle, the NHC says. Fred is expected to be a medium-strength tropical storm, which have sustained winds of 39-73 mph.
A Hurricane Hunter flight Saturday recorded Fred’s weakening from a combination of upper-level trough shear and interaction with land. A tropical storm warning for the Florida Keys has been discontinued.
Currently, TD Fred has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph off the west northwest coast of Cuba.
“The global models forecast the upper-level trough to move northward and weaken during the next 24 hours and indicate that Fred will re-form a closed circulation over the eastern Gulf of Mexico Sunday morning,” the NHC forecast says. “Given the strength of the upper-level trough, that forecast may well be too bullish.”
Too early to focus on TD Fred’s track
Coast residents should not focus too closely on the track because it is still uncertain but prepare for strong winds and heavy rain, especially east of Fred’s eventual landfall Monday evening or Tuesday morning.
The latest NHC advisory anticipates heavy rainfall and river flooding Sunday night into Tuesday across the northern Gulf, particularly in Florida’s Big Bend and Panhandle, and in Southern Alabama.
With the track uncertain, Fred could strengthen to a Category 1 hurricane, with sustained winds of 74-78 mph, says Gulf Coast meteorologist Rocco Calaci. If current predictions hold, he said that winds should be at tropical storm strength of 60-73 mph.
Calaci says in his Saturday weather update: “With TD Fred being weak and disorganized at the moment, the slightest change in wind can result in a huge difference of where landfall can be expected.
“Now, the models all have Destin, Florida, as the landfall area, but it’s my opinion that we will see a more western drift of TD Fred as the storm starts to re-organize. As we know, the longer any tropical feature remains over warm water, the chances of strengthening are excellent.”
Fred’s winds Saturday evening were at 35 mph.
Tropical Storm Grace the bigger concern
“If everything holds like it is, at this minute in time, which it won’t, we’re probably looking at an inch of rain,” said Jackson County emergency manager Earl Etheridge. “Is this thing going to intensify? Is it going to track to the west?”
“We won’t know until Sunday morning. It’s hard to track something they can’t find the center of.”
Etheridge and other weather-watchers are more concerned about Tropical Storm Grace, trailing Fred and on a similar path. Preliminary models have Grace moving westward, over or near Cuba, and into the Gulf on Thursday.
“That’s the one that’s got to be watched,” Etheridge said.
As hurricane season heats up, NOAA forecasts a 65% chance of an above-average number of storms after a record-breaking 2020 season. There is potential for up to 10 hurricanes, with 3-5 major hurricanes.
This story was originally published August 14, 2021 at 12:30 PM.
