Live updates: Few Coast impacts expected with Tropical Storm Fred as forecasters watch Grace

There were not any significant changes with the National Hurricane Center’s 10 p.m. update.

Ahead of Tropical Storm Fred reaching the Florida Panhandle on Monday, the Mississippi Coast may see some coastal flooding in low-lying areas and a few isolated heavy downpours , the National Weather Service in New Orleans said.

Gusting winds of 15-20 mph are possible along with a 60% chance of thunderstorms and rain showers. Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches are forecast through Tuesday morning.

Also, Tropical Depression Grace is moving through the Caribbean Sea, and will reach the central Gulf of Mexico later this week.

“The forecast for Grace is incredibly challenging,” and while the track shifted slightly south, it will be more certain after it moves into the Gulf.

4 p.m.

Tropical Storm Fred’s track has shifted even further east and Tropical Storm Grace is not likely to strengthen much over the Gulf of Mexico, the National Hurricane Center’s 4 p.m. updates show.

The intensity forecast did increase for Fred also, to 60 mph winds at landfall in the Florida Panhandle, and advisories were issued for more counties on the eastern part of the pandhandle.

But the Mississippi Coast is not likely to see much rain or wind from Fred, if at all.

“We can pretty confidently say that our areas of southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi are not gonna see any significant impacts from Fred,” National Weather Service New Orleans meteorologist Lauren Nash said in a video update.

“Maybe you get about a foot of inundation with some high-tide coastal flooding tonight, but any storms that we get tomorrow are gonna be due just to our typical summertime storms, as well is you happen to be out in Jackson County maybe you get some 10-20 mph winds tomorrow night.”

As for Tropical Storm Grace, it is still to soon to be certain of its path and the models do not agree.

The NHC’s official forecast cone now has the tip of southeast Louisiana in the cone, but it is likely to stay a tropical storm, Nash said.

“There is still a lot of wind shear over the Gulf, so it doesn’t look like this would be a major hurricane if it does make landfall along the Gulf Coast,” she said.

The timing would put landfall toward the end of the week.

Nash also reminded residents to be prepared during this time of the year.

“We’re in peak hurricane season so just make sure your hurricane kits are ready to go.”

10 a.m.

The first watches and warnings have been issued for Tropical Storm Fred, so far only in the Florida Panhandle.

Landfall is expected in the western Florida Panhandle on Monday afternoon or night, the National Hurricane Center said.

A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for Mississippi’s three coastal counties.

“Impacts from TS Fred will be minimal with only some minor coastal flooding issues possible,” the National Weather Service in Slidell said. “TS Grace is currently south of Puerto Rico and should be monitored over the coming days.”

The storm re-strengthened early Sunday and reached tropical storm status just before 8 a.m. The storm’s center reformed more toward the north, and the forecast track has shifted east about 40 miles.

Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reports show winds near 40 mph, and tropical storm-force winds extend out up to 80 miles from the center.

Gradual strengthening is expected until landfall because of some wind shear that will hinder development, and peak winds are expected to be 50 mph.

Fred is moving north-northwest through tonight and forecast to turn to the north Monday.

Tropical Storm Grace remains disorganized, and Hurricane Hunters are expected to bring back more data in a few hours.

“The future intensity of Grace is dependent on how much the circulation interacts with the islands of the Greater Antilles,” the NHC said.

Grace is expected to reach the middle of the Gulf of Mexico later in the week.

9 a.m. - Coastal flood warning

Tropical Disturbance Fred could strengthen into a tropical storm Sunday, bringing with it flooding and winds to the Gulf Coast.

South Mississippi has been in and out of the warning cone for Fred, and was just outside of the worst impacts on Sunday morning.

But that could change quickly before the storm hits land, likely sometime Monday night.

A Coastal flood advisory has been issued for 1 foot to 3 feet of coastal flooding from 7 p.m. Sunday through 7 a.m. Tuesday, officials said. Sunday morning, Fred was about 400 miles from Pensacola, Florida, moving at about 8 mph and packing winds of 40 mph.

Emergency officials throughout the Coast are meeting Sunday afternoon to discuss storm preparations.

Fred is not the only storm on the area’s radar. Tropical Storm Grace is expected to hit the Gulf later this week.

Closings

Gulf Islands National Seashore closed the Fort Pickens Area as of Saturday evening, with all campers and staff expected to leave by noon Sunday. All other areas remain open for day use. Park staff will continue to assess conditions throughout the weekend and will reevaluate all park areas Monday. For more information, please follow the parks social media accounts and website.

Sandbag locations

Bags and sand will be available. Please bring your own shovel.

Biloxi

• District 5 Woolmarket Work Center, 16395 Old Woolmarket Rd.

D’Iberville

• Near Marina under I-110 bridge
• District 1 D’Iberville Work Center, 10085 Doris Deno Ave.

Gulfport

• Fire Station #2, 1200 42nd Ave.
• Orange Grove Community Center, 14416 Dedeaux Rd.
• Intersection of Hewes Ave and Glover St.
• Harrison County Road Department, 10076 Lorraine Rd.
• District 2 Lyman Work Center, 15001 County Farm Rd.
• District 4 Orange Grove Work Center, 8300 34th Ave.

Long Beach

• District 3 Long Beach Work Center, 605 North Seal Ave.

This story was originally published August 15, 2021 at 8:49 AM with the headline "Live updates: Few Coast impacts expected with Tropical Storm Fred as forecasters watch Grace."