A disturbance is heading for the Gulf. Here’s what South Mississippi should know

A disturbance off Florida’s east coast could dump rain across South Mississippi and Louisiana this week but, so far, has slim chances of becoming a tropical depression or storm.

Forecasters said the disturbance will sweep west across Florida and into the northeastern Gulf by Tuesday. It could develop slowly later this week, but the National Weather Service said the main risk is flash flooding.

Rain could start on Wednesday and worsen by Thursday and Friday, dousing the Mississippi Coast with 4 to 5 inches, said Megan Williams, a forecaster at the National Weather Service in Slidell. Forecasters said there is a slight risk of excessive rain on Thursday and Friday and warned residents some storms could drop up to 3 inches in one hour.

“It’s definitely a concern,” Williams said.

The National Hurricane Center said there was just a 10 percent chance the disturbance will become a tropical depression within two days, and a 30 percent chance it will strengthen within the next week.

Michael Lowry, a meteorologist in Florida, said in a Monday morning newsletter that the water from Florida to Louisiana is warmer than normal, which helps storms develop.

Still, models on Monday were not “overly enthusiastic” about strengthening, Lowry said. “But we’ll need to watch it closely since it’ll be near the coast most of the week.”

This story was originally published July 14, 2025 at 9:39 AM.