Live updates: There’s a new target for landfall as Sally track moves east again
Editor’s note: Find the latest Wednesday updates here.
10 p.m.
As Hurricane Sally crawled toward landfall — now in Gulf Shores, Alabama — and impacts shifted away from most of the Mississippi Coast, the National Hurricane Center issued a dire warning for those in the storm’s path.
“Hurricane conditions expected to reach portions of the north-central Gulf Coast late tonight and early Wednesday. Historic life-threatening flooding likely along portions of the Northern Gulf Coast. “
Anticipated landfall early Wednesday morning shifted in three hours from Mobile Bay to Gulf Shores.
A storm-surge warning has been discontinued from Hancock County to the Mississippi-Alabama line. A hurricane warning and storm-surge warning have been extended east of Navarre, Florida, to the Okaloosa/Walton County line.
The hurricane warning also remains in force from east of Bay St. Louis and along the entire Alabama coast.
The storm’s slow speed was expected to dump 10-30 inches of rain from the Florida Panhandle west to the Alabama/Mississippi border.
Maximum sustained winds had picked up to 90 mph, with some indication the hurricane could continue to strengthen before landfall. It would need to reach 96 mph to hit Category 2 status.
Sally was 65 miles south-southeast of Mobile and about 60 miles southwest of Pensacola.
Sally was still crawling north-northeast at 2 mph. The NHC anticipates a north-northeastward to northeastward motion at a slightly faster speed Wednesday and into the night, followed by faster northeastward movement Thursday.
Sally is expected to move inland across southeastern Alabama Wednesday night and Thursday.
7 p.m.
Hurricane Sally is still in no rush to hit land, creeping along at 2 mph in a northerly direction, the latest update from the National Hurricane Center showed Tuesday evening.
Landfall of the Category 1 hurricane with sustained wind speeds of 80 miles per hour is still expected late tonight or early Wednesday along the western coast of Alabama. Sally is expected to gain little, if any, strength before moving ashore and slowly heading in a north-northeastward direction Wednesday.
But the NHC continues to warn that Sally is a life-threatening hurricane due to its slow movement and potential to create flash-flooding from 10 to 20 inches of rain, with up to 30 inches in isolated areas. Heavy rainfall is expected from the Florida Panhandle to southeastern Mississippi.
A hurricane warning is still in force from east of Bay St. Louis to Navarre, Florida. Bay St. Louis west to Grand Isle, Louisiana is under a tropical storm warning, as is the area from Navarre to Indian Pass, Florida.
Sally’s hurricane-force winds extend out 40 miles, with tropical-storm winds continuing to extend 125 miles.
As the threat of landfall in Mississippi receded, Harrison County ended its mandatory evacuation as of 5 p.m.
County shelter shutdowns will begin Wednesday.
All county offices, buildings and courthouses will reopen Wednesday at regular hours. All personnel should report to work at normal times.
“We are asking everyone to stay home tonight if they can,” Harrison County Emergency Management Director Rupert Lacy said. “As we try to resume normal activities on Wednesday, be mindful that high wind gusts, severe rain and extremely high tides are possible. And remember to turn around if you see water crossing the road.”
4 p.m.
Sally has been “inching” toward the Gulf Coast and the track has again shifted east, the National Hurricane Center said in the 4 p.m. update.
“The slow forward speed is likely to result in a historical rainfall event for the north-central Gulf Coast.”
There is still significant risk of flash flooding and river flooding on the Mississippi Coast, particularly in Jackson and George counties.
Rainfall of 4-8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible across portions of southeastern Mississippi, southern and central Alabama.
“Since Sally has a large wind field, and storm surge and rainfall hazards extend far from the eye, users should not focus on the exact forecast track or specific location and timing of landfall as strong winds and bands of heavy rainfall are already affecting the Gulf Coast and will continue to do so for quite some time.”
Wind shear is still preventing the storm from strengthening.
Harrison, Jackson and George counties are under a hurricane warning.
Stone and Hancock counties are under a tropical storm warning.
Harrison, Jackson and Hancock counties are under a storm surge warning. Maximum storm surge forecast is 2-4 feet.
Harrison, Jackson, George and Stone counties are under a flash flood warning.
Rivers across the Mississippi Coast are under flood warnings.
3:30 p.m.
Gov. Tate Reeves said at an afternoon press conference that 40 hours ago forecasters were expecting Hurricane Sally to hit in Louisiana and now the storm is expected to come onshore in Alabama, possibly near Mobile Bay.
Even today, 18 hours from landfall, “There’s still a lot of uncertainty with the particular storm,” he said. Parts of Jackson and George counties could see 10-15 inches of rain.
“It would not surprise me if it kicks back to the west,” Reeves said, or moves farther to the east as it wobbles in the Gulf before it comes ashore Wednesday morning.
The good news, he said, is landfall is expected during daylight at around 8 a.m.
“The not good news is it’s near high tide,” he said.
Greg Michel, director of the Mississippi Emergency Management Agency, is in Jackson County, Reeves said.
“We do have a number of shelters opened throughout our state,” he said, with six people in the medical shelter in Stone County and 120 in shelters throughout the state.
Sandbags, tarps and other equipment is pre-positioned if needed. “We are prepared,” he said.
1:50 p.m.
Although the predicted heavy rains haven’t arrived in South Mississippi, there is plenty of high water flooding streets and marinas across the Coast.
In Jackson County, high tide around 9 a.m. brought flooding along the beach in Pascagoula. About 20 roads in the county were impassable before noon and the heavier rain was expected to arrive.
In Harrison County, officials warned residents to keep vigilant as roads in Biloxi, Pass Christian and other low-lying areas of the counties are flooded and the rivers rise. “You just have to keep people on their toes, because this thing could go anywhere,” said Jeff Clark, Harrison County spokesman.
With Hancock County out of the hurricane watch area as Sally tracks east, Emergency management agency director Brian Adam said Tuesday morning the county was preparing to send boats and other assets to the east if they are needed.
School districts that were closed Tuesday began announcing plans for Wednesday, with some of them switching to distance learning.
While the Coast casinos and other businesses are closed, Waffle House restaurants across the Coast remained open to feed those who are out in the storm.
Gov Tate Reeves will give an update on conditions at a 3:15 p.m. press conference.
1 p.m.
Hurricane Sally is still moving slowly at 2 mph toward the Gulf Coast, and the National Hurricane Center did not make any changes to advisories.
“The center of Sally will pass near the coast of southeastern Louisiana today, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area late tonight or Wednesday,” the NHC said.
Maximum winds are still at 80 mph, but it is not expected to strengthen further and will not likely reach Category 2 status.
“Sally is still forecast to produce 10 to 20 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts of 30 inches along and just inland from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeastern Mississippi. Historic flooding is likely with extreme life-threatening flash flooding likely through Wednesday.
In addition, this rainfall will lead to widespread moderate to major flooding on area rivers.”
Stone and George counties are under a hurricane warning in addition to Harrison and Jackson counties.
10:10 a.m.
The 10 a.m. report from the National Hurricane Center says moderate westerly wind shear is forecast to increase Tuesday night and some slight weakening could occur, but Sally should still be a hurricane as the system comes onshore.
It’s expected to make landfall early Wednesday.
The latest forecast says the track of Sally has again “nudged slightly eastward” closer to Mobile.
The storm is only moving at 2 mph, and a long period of heavy rainfall and historic flooding is still expected along portions of the north-central Gulf Coast.
Flood warnings have been issued for rivers across the Mississippi Coast.
The highest storm surge now is expected to be along the Alabama coast, including Mobile Bay. For the Mississippi Coast, the estimate is now 3-5 feet.
The Hurricane Hunters, based at Keesler Air Force Base in Biloxi, continue to fly through Sally to get the latest information on the speed and path of Sally.
Latest timing for the Mississippi Coast:
Tuesday 2 p.m. - Tropical storm-force winds arrive
Tuesday afternoon/evening - Hurricane conditions begin, with heaviest impacts in Jackson County
Wednesday 7 a.m. - Landfall on the Alabama coast
Wednesday 7 p.m. - Sally’s eye forecast to be just inland over southwest Alabama, still bringing rain to parts of the Gulf Coast
Changes to watches and warnings:
Hurricane warnings canceled for Pearl River and Hancock counties. Hancock is now under a tropical storm warning.
Harrison and Jackson counties are still under a storm surge warning and hurricane warning.
9:45 a.m.
The rain forecasts for Gulfport west to Hancock County have been downgraded but Jackson County and eastern Harrison County still could see the significant rainfall forecasters have been talking about, said Tim Destin, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in New Orleans.
The Weather Channel now forecasts 2-3 inches of rain in Gulfport as Hurricane Sally barely moves toward the coastline.
“There could be less rain, especially in the west side of your area,” Destri said.
There is a strong gradient between very little rainfall from the storm to the west and quite a lot to the east, he said, and a huge impact difference from 2-4 inches in one area to 15 inches in another.
Flooding continues to be an issue, especially in areas near the beach, where storm surge and the approaching high tide are covering roads.
The rain is expected to increase in southeastern Mississippi through the day.
“It’s not talking about feet as we were talking yesterday,” said Rupert Lacy, emergency operations director for Harrison County. “As feeder bands come through the area, some can be heavy-duty rainmakers,” he said. “Any substantial rain could be a problem for us,” he said.
He cautions people across the Coast to continue to watch the weather forecasts. Water is the number one cause of death during a hurricane. “That is our biggest concern. Has been all along,” he said.
7 a.m.
Hurricane Sally has dropped to a Category 1 thanks to wind shear and dry air moving in as the storm meanders off the Gulf Coast at 2 mph.
“Heavy rain leading to flash flooding will remain a threat for coastal Mississippi,” according to the 7 a.m. report from the National Hurricane Center.
Landfall is expected Wednesday near the Mississippi-Alabama line, the report says.
Where it comes ashore will determine how much damage South Mississippi will see. A 6 to 9 foot storm surge is possible near and to the right of where the storm makes landfall, putting South Mississippi on the “good” side of the storm.
“Strong winds could lead to scattered damage, especially near where the storm makes landfall,” the report says.
Water is still the major concern. Light rain is falling and high tide in Biloxi is at 8:42 a.m.
6:30 a.m.
Hurricane Sally is moving ever so slowly toward landfall.
Where it will come onshore is still in question, but the storm track continues to track east from where it was Monday. New Orleans is no longer in the cone. Jackson County, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle are.
That doesn’t mean South Mississippi can relax. After all, famed weatherman Jim Cantore is on the Coast Tuesday.
Sally is moving at just 2 mph, and the 4 a.m. update from the National Hurricane Center says: “Historic flooding is possible with extreme life-threatening flash flooding likely through Wednesday along portions of the Northern Gulf Coast and just inland of the central Gulf Coast, from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeastern Mississippi.”
Expect flash flooding and river flooding, the advisory says.
Another advisory from the NHC will come at 7 a.m.
On Monday, Mississippi Gaming Commission ordered the 12 Coast casinos to close by 4 p.m. The Harrison County Supervisors directed all businesses at the seawall to close. Shelters opened and people in low-lying areas evacuated.
The Sun Herald will provide updates throughout the day.
This story was originally published September 15, 2020 at 7:00 AM.
