Marco weakens and Laura gets stronger, but what about landfall? Tracks uncertain, NHC says
The intensities of two storm systems churning toward the Gulf Coast changed Sunday night, with Marco weakening to a tropical storm and Laura growing stronger, while the tracks for both remain uncertain.
Marco, a hurricane at 7 p.m. Sunday, now has winds of 70 mph and is “feeling the effect of strong southwesterly (wind) shear,” the National Hurricane Center said in its 10 p.m. update.
That wind shear will likely prevent Marco from getting stronger. The track shows the storm skirting the Louisiana coast and making landfall sometime Tuesday.
The 10 p.m. track was adjusted slightly northward after recent movement of Marco’s center but the storm Marco will likely continue to more northward to north-northwestward as it is steered by by a strong southwesterly upper level flow.
However, the hurricane center said, “confidence in this forecast” is low because of model spread.
“Marco’s track is tried entirely to its intensity and structure,” NHC said. “Once Marco becomes fully decoupled it will slow and turn westward. It is not out of the question that this could happen before Marco reaches the coast and the system never makes landfall.”
Laura update
Tropical Storm Laura’s wind speeds increased to 65 mph as the system dumped heavy rain over eastern Cuba and Jamaica. The NHC said the storm “continues to gradually become better organized” and is expected to strengthen to a hurricane before a midweek landfall on the Louisiana coast.
“Laura moving fairly quickly to the west-northwest near or over Cuba through Monday and then across the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday,” the NHC said. “The models suggest that a gradual turn to the northwest is likely by early Wednesday as the storm nears the western side of the ridge, followed by a northward motion after that.”
Exactly where Laura will make landfall is still up in the air. The 10 p.m. forecast is little changed from the 7 p.m. update.
“The details of the northwest and north turn are quite important when trying to figure out where the core of Laura is going to make landfall,” NHC said. “However, at this time there is still a notable spread in the models and their ensemble members, meaning that it is still unclear exactly where the worst weather conditions will occur.”
Watches and warnings
Hancock, Harrison and Jackson counties were all under a tropical storm warning at 10 p.m. Sunday.
Hancock and Harrison counties are under a storm surge warning. Jackson County is under a storm surge watch.
The Mississippi Coast could see 2 to 5 inches of rainfall expected with up to 10 inches in isolated areas along the Gulf Coast region.
The Coast could see 3 to 5 feet of storm surge from Marco, according to the hurricane center.
This story was originally published August 23, 2020 at 10:47 PM.
