As temperatures finally start to chill for spooky season, there could be another tropical scare on the horizon.
A disorganized area of storms and low pressure could strengthen and head toward the Gulf Coast by this weekend, the National Weather Service advises.
The system is expected to move over the Bay of Campeche by late Wednesday, gradually turn northeast, and possibly strengthen over the western Gulf of Mexico. As of Wednesday morning, the National Hurricane Center estimated a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression over the next five days.
The weather service office in Slidell said, so far, it is splitting the difference between the two main forecasting models and predicting a 50-60 percent chance of rain Friday and Saturday for its coverage area, which includes Baton Rouge, New Orleans and the Mississippi Coast.
One model shows the system staying a relatively weak area of low pressure that moves more toward Alabama and Florida, while the other model is wetter and windier with impacts in Louisiana and possibly the Mississippi Coast.
Another storm front expected Monday means 2 to 4 inches of rain are possible in South Mississippi over the next week, the weather service predicts, which is good news after a record-breaking dry fall that brought a statewide burn ban earlier this month.
This story will update with the latest Wednesday forecasts.
Wednesday: Showers and thunderstorms, mainly before noon. High near 79. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Wednesday night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. North wind around 5 mph.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 72. Northeast wind around 5 mph.
Thursday night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54. Northeast wind around 5 mph.
Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1 p.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 74. East wind around 5 mph.
Friday night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. East wind around 5 mph.
Saturday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1 p.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 81. East wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Saturday night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. East wind around 5 mph becoming west after midnight.
— National Weather Service