MS health officials concerned Thanksgiving gatherings could trigger a 5th COVID wave
Mississippi Health officials said they are concerned about another wave of COVID-19 with gatherings expected over the holidays at a time when the state has started seeing a slight uptick in positive cases.
During a Mississippi State Medical Association COVID chat on Friday, State Health Officer Dr. Thomas Dobbs and State Epidemiologist Paul Byers said indoor festivities during the upcoming winter holidays may trigger a sharp increase in the state’s somewhat steady COVID numbers, just as it did last year during a “Thanksgiving surge.”
“We’re worried about a rebound during the holidays,” Dobbs said. “If Thanksgiving was our worst ever as far as trajectory, and although we’re sort of at a balance right now, social factors could really ignite a fifth wave.”
Immunity across the state is around 75-80%, Dobbs said, due to natural infection (the development of antibodies from previously having COVID) and vaccinations. The rates are not enough to reach a herd immunity rate of about 90%, so about 20% of Mississippi would fare poorly during another surge, officials said.
“We’re just not there. And if you think about 20% of the population, and that’s optimistic, that’s still 600,000 folks,” he said. “We got a little ways to go.”
To prepare for the upcoming holiday gatherings, Mississippians should make sure they’re vaccinated or get their booster shots, which were on Friday expanded to all by the FDA. If infected with the virus, residents should have the location of nearby monoclonal antibody infusion facilities on hand, according to the health officials.
Monoclonal antibodies, or mAbs, are laboratory-made proteins that mimic the immune system’s ability to fight off harmful pathogens such as viruses, according to the Food and Drug Administration.
“We have a whole lot more people immune than we did this time last year and better therapeutics available,” Byers said. “If you’re still sitting on the fence, get off the fence now, now’s the time to get vaccinated.”
Hospitalizations stable
Along the Mississippi Gulf Coast, health systems are reporting stable COVID hospitalizations, while positivity rates have decreased slightly.
▪ Singing River Health System has seen some increase in COVID cases. Eleven COVID patients were in their hospitals on Monday, according to a spokesperson, which is up slightly from a week ago when nine patients were admitted with the virus.
In early November Singing River held about eight COVID patients, up slightly from seven patients near the end of October.
▪ Memorial Hospital on Monday reported six COVID patients with two on ventilators. The numbers have remained steady from the past few weeks, according to a spokesperson.
▪ Merit Health in Biloxi said it has seen decreased COVID hospitalizations.
On Nov. 8, the hospital had one positive COVID inpatient and on Nov. 15 it had none. The hospital on Monday also reported no positive inpatients.
▪ Ochsner Health system did not respond to the Sun Herald’s request for COVID numbers.
South Mississippi last week recorded an average of 47 COVID cases, lower than 52 average cases the previous week and lower still than the average count of 56 during the first week of November.
Mississippi has started seeing some uptick in positive cases across the state. Numbers have been trending upward since its lowest recent case count on Nov. 4, with 455 positive cases. The New York Times’ COVID maps now reports a 14-day change of 2% in the state, while testing is up 23%.
Nationally, The seven-day average of new cases jumped nearly 30% over the past roughly three weeks, according to Centers for Disease Control data. COVID-19 models predict cases will remain elevated into December.
Past holiday seasons
Dobbs’ and Byers’ concern about holiday gatherings is reflected in past data. After last Thanksgiving, the state was consistently reporting its largest single-day increases.
This summer’s Labor Day and July 4 gatherings then ignited the deadly Delta surge across the state.
August recorded the highest positive case counts in Mississippi of the entire pandemic, totaling 83,217. September was the deadliest month of the pandemic, with 1,192 deaths.
U.S. chief medical adviser Dr. Anthony Fauci has said Americans should get fully vaccinated against COVID and get booster shots ahead of a potentially “dangerous” winter spike.
“I think we’re just kind of waiting to see what’s going to happen after these holidays. We’ve seen it happen several times before,” Byers said.
Planning for the holidays
Of the tools to minimize another COVID wave, vaccinations are still the first and best defense, health officials say. Mississippi still is one of the least vaccinated states in the nation, with the Gulf Coast ranked even lower.
Currently, 47% of Mississippians have received both shots, with Harrison County and Jackson County at 41% and Hancock at 30%.
“It’s slow but steady. We need a lot more folks vaccinated,” Dobbs said.
MSDH recently received data that showed 42% of Mississippians had a history of natural infection, according to Dobbs, which makes the majority of the state armed with some sort of immunity.
“So you combine those together because there’s some overlap — people who have had natural infection and vaccines — and maybe 75, 80% of people have some degree of immunity,” he said.
“And that sounds kind of good, but because Delta is so contagious, that’s not really enough. So we know that there’s a lot of vulnerable people out there.”
Immunity is also decreasing for most people in the state, as time is passing from many residents’ fourth wave COVID cases, Dobbs said, which is another reason for residents to continue becoming fully vaccinated or receiving their booster shots.
If infected with COVID, monoclonal antibodies are still highly suggested for Mississippians. MSDH has published this list of treatment providers, which include additional local health systems like Singing River, Ochsner Health and Memorial.
“We’re trying to have everyone make a COVID safety plan (for the holidays). Obviously, part of that plan is being vaccinated, but if you’re going out of town, know where you can get a test. Maybe bring a rapid test with you. You can get them at the store or pharmacy. And wherever you are in town, make sure you can get monoclonals,” Dobbs said.
This article and live event is supported by the Journalism and Public Information Fund, a fund of the Gulf Coast Community Foundation.
