25 Mississippi counties reach COVID-19 ‘tipping point,’ data show. What does it mean?
As coronavirus cases continue to climb across Mississippi, more than two dozen counties have reached the highest risk of spread, according to new analysis from Harvard University.
A map tool released by the university Wednesday tracks the threat of COVID-19 by state and county as the U.S. sees a resurgence of the virus.
Mississippi recorded 870 new cases on July 1, pushing the state’s total over 28,700 and with more than 1,000 coronavirus-related deaths, data from the state Department of Health show. This upward trend is reflected in Harvard’s color-coded, risk level map, developed by the Harvard Public Health Institute and other health agencies to help the public and policyholders make informed decisions on “how to target and suppress COVID-19 more effectively across the nation,” according to researchers.
“We need to consistently apply data-driven testing of hotspots, combined with contact tracing based testing, especially in states where case numbers are rising rapidly,” Ashish K. Jha, the director of Harvard’s Global Health Institute, said in a news release.
“It’s what we need to get the virus level so low that we don’t have large numbers of people getting sick and dying and that we can open up our economy,” she added.
So how does it work?
The map uses four colors to show the risk level in each county: green, yellow, orange and red. In Mississippi, a total of 25 counties, including Pike, Marion and Walthall counties, are in the red — meaning they’ve reached a “tipping point” for the coronavirus.
To determine the risk categories, the map uses the number of daily new cases per 100,000 people over a seven-day period.
Here’s how it breaks down:
- Green: Less than one case per 100,000 people and containment is on track. Use contact tracing and testing to monitor.
- Yellow: One to nine cases per 100,000 people, indicating community spread and the need for rigorous testing and tracing.
- Orange: Ten to 24 cases per 100,000 people, showing “accelerated spread” and stay-at-home orders are advised.
Red: 25 or more cases per 100,000 people, meaning the county is at a “tipping point” and stay-at-home orders are necessary to contain the virus.
Much of the Magnolia state is either yellow, orange or red with no spot of green on the map, data show. In the Gulf Coast, Pearl River, Hancock and Jackson counties are in the yellow while Harrison County is orange.
As a whole, Mississippi is orange and falls in the risk category for “accelerated spread,” averaging about 21 new cases per 100,000 people in the last week, according to the data.
So which counties are at the highest risk? Grenada, Claiborne and Issaquena top the list, with Grenada County seeing more than 110 new coronavirus cases per 100,000 people over the past week — an average that places it among the highest risk counties in the country. Counties with the lowest risk include Pearl River, Newton, Perry and Lauderdale, all with less than 5 new daily cases per 100,000 people, the data map shows.
A look across the U.S.
Nationally, Arizona (39.1), Florida (30.7) and South Carolina (24.7) ranked highest in new cases daily per 100,000, the first two falling in the red ”tipping point” category.
Much of the southeastern U.S. was in the orange category, including Georgia, North Carolina, Texas and Tennessee, according to Harvard’s data.
As of Thursday, Hawaii was the only state in the low-risk green category with only 0.7 new cases per 100,000 people.