The Fertilizer "Long Tail" Threatens Global Food Security
Hunger and food insecurity don't move in sync with oil prices-and right now, fertilizer supply and affordability remain a major global pressure point.
Elizabeth Kennedy Trudeau from the George W. Bush Presidential Center explains the "long tail" of fertilizer disruptions and why the impact on farmers can extend well beyond the initial shock. We discuss where risk is highest, including countries already close to food insecurity such as Ethiopia and parts of South Asia, and how high fertilizer costs force difficult decisions during planting seasons-decisions that can affect yields, staple food prices, and overall food security.
Jeffrey Snyder, Broadcast Retirement Network
Welcome back to the program. Elizabeth Kennedy Trudeau, excuse me.
She is the Bradford M. Freeman Managing Director for Global Policy at the George W. Bush Presidential Center.
Elizabeth, it's always a pleasure, great to see you and happy post-Fourth of July.
Elizabeth Kennedy Trudeau, George W. Bush Presidential Center
It's great seeing you and I hope you, your family and your viewers have a wonderful Fourth. At the Bush Center, we had just a lot of festivities. The museum was open for participants, but we also did a really wonderful program that your viewers might be interested in, you know, to celebrate the 250 years of America.
We asked 10 foreign leaders to submit essays in 250 words about what America meant to them. So we have a Nobel Prize winner, we have a former Secretary General of NATO, we have the Foreign Minister of Latvia, the highest defector from North Korea, a journalist from Mexico, and a social media influencer from South Africa. So it's an amazing group and they're really heartfelt.
But people can see them at bushcenter.org slash world A250 and they made me cry. They were beautiful.
Jeffrey Snyder, Broadcast Retirement Network
Yeah, well, I, you know, I mean, how can you not love, you know, it's interesting. It's always interesting to hear other people's perspectives. And we saw this in kind of the World Cup, saw some media interviews with people that came to this country for the World Cup, and they just are so appreciative.
I think we, I can't speak for all Americans, but I think sometimes we, I may take America for granted. So I'm really appreciative that I'm here and not elsewhere. It's always good to hear people's opinions.
So Elizabeth, the last time we had you on, we talked about hunger and the impact of the war with Iran, some of the geopolitical events, the Strait of Hormuz being blockaded, all the challenges and what the impact on hunger is. I want to forego the oil conversation because I feel like everyone's talked about that and it's great. Oil has come down to close to $70 a barrel.
So that's great. That's good. But let's talk about where things stand geographically around the world with hunger.
Give us an update.
Elizabeth Kennedy Trudeau, George W. Bush Presidential Center
Well, that's great. And the last time we spoke, we actually focused on fertilizer. I think you'll remember that when we spoke, I had talked about that one third of the world's fertilizer goes to the Strait of Hormuz.
And it's not just finished products, but it's things like sulfur and urea. And while it's wonderful that oil is moving and that price of oil has come down, with fertilizer particularly, you're going to see a long tail on that. And that's impacting countries around the world, especially countries that are really import dependent.
So what you're seeing now are farmers making choices on what they need to do with their fertilizer. It's planting season. You're seeing in Africa and Southeast Asia.
And farmers are going to have to make that calculus as the price of fertilizer stays high. And I think for us, as we think about it, you know, here in the United States, fortunately, you know, the government has taken steps to protect our farmers. Elsewhere in the world, you know, especially agriculture dependent countries, they don't have those guarantees.
So one of the concerns I think that governments and analysts, people are thinking about is what that tail is going to look like. Are we going to see lower yields on farms, particularly for small holders? Are we going to see higher prices on groceries around the world, especially in markets where people are buying directly from farmers?
And that's a concern because, you know, famine is a reality in a lot of parts of the world. And fertilizer has made such an important game for many of these small holders. So it's something, you know, we're very concentrated on because, you know, as we say, how other people matter, live matters to us as Americans.
July 4th is a great way to remember that as well.
Jeffrey Snyder, Broadcast Retirement Network
So let's talk, you know, I know food security, I'm going to call it food insecurity or food security is really important. Are there, you mentioned Africa, you mentioned the country, you know, you talked about that there are countries that are net importers of their food, maybe they're not. Are there particular countries or areas, regions that stand out to you that we should be looking out for as a nation, as a world populace?
Elizabeth Kennedy Trudeau, George W. Bush Presidential Center
Yeah, no, it's a great question because some of the areas I think that the world should focus on most particularly are countries that are already close to food insecurity. So countries like Ethiopia, countries on the horn of Africa. I'm also taking a look at, as I mentioned, South Asia, Pakistan, India, some of the countries there that are really dependent on agriculture to feed their own people.
It's when your margin is so slim, that's when it's very easy to tip over into even graver food insecurity. So as we watch the situation in the Middle East evolve, you know, one of the things I think we all have to keep in mind, it's not just oil that transits the strain of hormones and some of the things like fertilizer, like urea, like sulfur, they've got a long tail.
Jeffrey Snyder, Broadcast Retirement Network
So when you say a long tail, just can you put it in perspective for me? What does that mean? Because, you know, the President and others have talked and the Secretary of Energy have talked about, you know, that I guess there's a diversion between where oil is versus the price of gasoline.
We've seen gasoline come down, but it's not directly related. It's not correlated, I guess, to use an economic term. So when the price of fertilizer is up, how long will it take once it comes down and there's more volume for us to see that in, or not us, but others around the globe to see that in terms of their food prices?
Elizabeth Kennedy Trudeau, George W. Bush Presidential Center
So I've never been a guessing person, Jeffrey, and I won't start now. There's professionals who preview markets. But what I will say is that farmers, particularly now, aren't just looking at this planting season, they're looking at multiple planting seasons.
And food insecurity, as we talked about, particularly in those countries that are right on the precipice, are just feeding their own people right now. You know, a decline in yield, or a farmer who chooses not to plant, or a farmer who chooses to move to crops that are less fertilizer intensive, that's got an impact on a population.
Jeffrey Snyder, Broadcast Retirement Network
You know, in terms of the types of crops, so could we get into a little bit more detail there? I mean, when I think of crops, I think of, you know, I don't know what they plant around the globe. I think of corn, I think of growing rice, I think of things like that.
What staples are we talking about here?
Elizabeth Kennedy Trudeau, George W. Bush Presidential Center
You know, with the widespread use of fertilizer, particularly over the last couple of decades, you're looking at a whole range of crops, rice, beans, things that are really staples, grains of people's daily lives. You know, when we talk about food security, we're talking about the mass crops, you know, not the boutique heirloom tomatoes that I love to buy here in the U.S. One of the things I think that as we forecast out, it's going to be hard to make a solid prediction, but with global food insecurity, really something that America, our leadership, our principles, we've really sought to address as a nation, not only through government, but through the generosity of the American people, faith-based communities, international non-profit organizations. I think it's something we all have to keep in mind.
Jeffrey Snyder, Broadcast Retirement Network
You know, I'm old enough, not only am I old enough to remember the bicentennial, I don't remember the centennial, but I remember the bicentennial, so I'm that old. But I also remember in the 80s, USA for Africa, feed the world, get the work done, right? And this was a big deal because there was famine, there was a lot of suffering, and the world and a lot of non-profits rose to the occasion.
And that's great. So are we close to that event occurring again, like a relapse in history, a recurring sense of history, where we get to that point? Or are we just at the beginning where we can actually do something, like the USA and other nations can step up to help?
Elizabeth Kennedy Trudeau, George W. Bush Presidential Center
You know, the United States has always been an incredibly generous country. You know, you talk about some of the huge concerts that we've done in decades past, you know, the U.S. still gives foreign assistance, though some of our priorities have shifted in recent years. But it's really private Americans who lead a lot of this.
So I think what you're seeing is there's some countries in the world that are always under threat of famine. Sudan is a really good example right now. Some of it's conflict-related, some of it's governmental choices in individual countries.
But countries around the world, richer nations around the world and private individuals can also help. But that's also, you know, putting a Band-Aid on a problem. But when we talk about things like fertilizer flow or, you know, helping farmers learn how to plant more, you know, climate-adjusted crops or adapt to changing needs, you know, that's really where America's strength has always been.
So that's something I think that, you know, the American people can watch, keep an eye on and encourage our own people to live up to our principles.
Jeffrey Snyder, Broadcast Retirement Network
Yeah, really well said. Well, you know, I think we're all anxiously watching, you know, I can speak for myself. I know we're anxiously watching the quote-unquote negotiations that are going on.
Hopefully things can work out. But look, the world, we have to keep moving. We have to keep trying to find ways to help each other.
And, you know, we can do that. So I guess we'll have to check back in with you at another date. We'll check in with you maybe in a month from now, things will be in a better place.
Elizabeth Kennedy Trudeau, it's great to see you. Thanks for joining us. And we look forward to having you back on the program again very soon.
Elizabeth Kennedy Trudeau, George W. Bush Presidential Center
Thanks so much, Jeffrey. And I'm glad you and your family had a happy July 4th.
Jeffrey Snyder, Broadcast Retirement Network
Thank you.
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This story was originally published July 6, 2026 at 6:30 AM.