Holiday shopping could be difficult this year. Why experts say to get it done early
Do your holiday shopping early. Supplies of the items you want most may be tight.
“The highest demand items will likely sell out early in the holiday season,” said Scott Rankin, advisory industry leader for consumer and retail at KPMG, a tax, audit and advisory firm.
There’s no one culprit. Finished products are often stuck in ships that are waiting to be unloaded. Then there’s a problem getting them from port to store to home. Items that need semiconductors and certain raw materials are still reeling from cutbacks during the COVID pandemic.
“There could be shocks on supply and demand,” said Mary Lovely, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.
Added Rankin, “In a world where (suppliers) couldn’t forecast demand many shut off their supply chains. They didn’t want to lay out the cash, get hung up with inventory. The world sort of went on pause.”
The economy has recovered, he said, but “you can’t simply flick a switch and get the supply chain back to normal.”
As a result, if someone wants a unique product, the experts said, find and buy it now. People already are.
“While inventory levels should be more than adequate to match demand, there are bound to be shortages in some categories,” said Danielle Inman, senior director of media relations at the National Retail Federation.
“There is a lot of spending momentum heading into the holiday shopping season and consumers are doing their part by jump starting their gift browsing and purchasing earlier than ever,” she said.
Here’s the outlook for some popular items:
Electronics
“If it’s got an on/off switch,” it will probably be difficult to find just what you want, Lovely said.
“Computers, gaming systems, smart appliances, cameras, and toys that feature light, sound, motion, or any kind of tech all use microchips, meaning many manufacturers are already struggling to keep up with the demand for their products,” said the Better Business Bureau.
Two factors have created delays: The slowdown in chip supplies and a demand for more in-home products.
“People spent more time at home. They want to upgrade,” said Christopher Tang, faculty director of the UCLA Center for Global Management. They want a new computer or television set.
Toys
Asked what toys parents should look for right away, Adrienne Appell, spokeswoman for the Toy Foundation, said, “Anything really your kid has their heart set on … there’s not one particular category that is being affected.”
Supply will vary store by store.
Bulkier toys needing a lot of packaging, like doll sets or stuffed animals, could be less available because it’s more costly to ship them, said Troy Carlson, who owns a Sacramento toy store.
Food
Grocery stores have reported spot shortages, but the advice is the same: If you want something special, go early.
“Americans are eating more at home compared to pre-pandemic levels, and therefore demand for food has skyrocketed,” said Peter Conti, senior vice president of intelligence analytics at NielsenIQ, a global consumer and retail analytics measurement firm.
He saw these trends:
▪ Everyday prices are up and retailers are promoting less frequently and with less discounting because they are seeing strong demand and don’t need to cut prices to drive traffic into their stores.
▪ Manufacturers are unable to procure all necessary product ingredients and are producing less as a result. Same issues with packaging, labeling, etc.
▪ Shoppers may not find some of their favorite products, but there will still be plenty of options to choose from.
▪ Lack of workers is causing severe supply chain disruptions. Attractive unemployment benefits, stimulus checks, and apprehensions surrounding the pandemic have reduced the desire for in-person employment.
Clothing and shoes
The good news is that “most people are not set on one brand” of clothing, Lovely said.
But if they want something specific, that could be a problem, depending on where the item is made.
“If you can’t get the Air Jordan ones you want, you’ll find lots of other substitute products. It’s not as if there’ll be no product across the category,” Rankin said.
But that’s the same issue confronting holiday shoppers with so many products.
Asked if she was going to start shopping early, Lovely answered quickly: “I am.”
This story was originally published November 2, 2021 at 7:00 AM with the headline "Holiday shopping could be difficult this year. Why experts say to get it done early."
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