It’s finally time for early — but not too early — SEC predictions

There’s so many questions and so little time. This week unofficially marked the end of summer in the Southeast and the beginning of football season as coaches, players and fans converged on Hoover, Ala., for the annual media circus known as the SEC Media Days.

I’ve held off throwing out any projections or rankings but now seems about as good of a time as any... From worst to first, lets go!

14. Vanderbilt (2015 record: 4-8 overall, 2-6 SEC): Derek Mason seems like a really nice guy who has built a reputation as a strong defensive coordinator. Unfortunately for the ‘Dores, Mason has struggled in his time leading Vanderbilt, with three- and four-win seasons in the books. The Commodores’ defense should once again keep them in most games this season, but can the offense find the end zone with any regularity?

13. Missouri (5-7, 1-7): Is this the Missouri team we expected when the Tigers joined the SEC? After stunning most by winning the SEC East in 2013 and ‘14, the Tigers took a big step back last season and now find themselves with new coach Barry Odom. Mizzou has hit Mississippi hard onrecruiting and redshirt freshman Richaud Floyd (Gulfport) — who caught a 4-yard touchdown in the spring game — should at least see some spot duty at receiver this fall.

12. South Carolina (3-9, 1-7): UK or USC? UK or USC? OK, USC. Really, any of the bottom four teams can be flipped around. The Gamecocks were so bad last year when they bottomed out that Steve Spurrier finally said uncle. In steps Will Muschamp, who had early success at Florida, but The Swamp really soured on the defensive guru. The biggest question facing the Gamecocks is how the heck do they score? USC beats Western Carolina and UMass, but you certainly can’t use a Sharpie to write W’s next to East Carolina and Vanderbilt, much less the rest of the league schedule. A two-win campaign isn’t out of the realm of possibilities.

11. Kentucky (5-7, 2-6): Stanley “Boom” Williams was second in the SEC last season with 7.07 yards per carry, racking up 855 yards and six touchdowns on 121 carries. That’s a good starting point as UK brings along redshirt sophomore Drew Barker at QB, who completed 35 of 70 passes for 364 yards with one TD and two interceptions in five games last season. The catch is the Wildcats’ defense in ‘15 was atrocious and they lost the bulk of their top tacklers. Maybe it’s addition by subtraction. We’ll see.

10. Mississippi State (9-4, 4-4): I really liked Mississippi State last year. I thought the Bulldogs had a chance to break through and, if they could capitalize on Dak’s success, find some lasting power as a potential contender. That didn’t happen and now MSU must figure out which of three suitors will replace the best QB in program history. While Fred Ross (88 receptions, 1,007 yards, five touchdowns) was one of the SEC’s best receivers last season, the collection of returning running backs is uninspiring. MSU also had plenty of coaching changes, so it may take time to gel. ESPN projects MSU as 6.8-5.2 — which is based off of 10,000 simulations using FPI — with a 11.4 Football Power Index that ranks 31st nationally and 10th in the league. The good news is with South Alabama, UMass, BYU and Samford as non-conference opponents, MSU will have at least a 3-1 built in record when it goes up against the rest of the SEC. For Coast folks, MSU easily has the most South Mississippi representation in the league with DB Lashard Durr (Harrison Central), LB Richie Brown (Long Beach), Nick James (Long Beach) and OL Martinas Rankin (Mississippi Gulf Coast Community College via Mendenhall).

9. Auburn (7-6, 2-6): Auburn made a lot of folks — myself included — look foolish last season as the Tigers plummeted out of national title contention almost from the opening kickoff in ‘15. Fool me once, Tigers. Jeremy Johnson seemed like an easy Heisman contender a year ago. Now he’ll have to duke it out with Sean White (again) and JUCO transfer John Franklin III to be QB1 on The Plains. Auburn still has a strong MGCCC connection with WR Jason Smith, DL Maurice Swain and K Kevin Phillips all slated to start.

8. Florida (10-4, 7-1): How confident are the Gators that quarterback transfer Luke Del Rio can step in and replace Will Grier ? Second-year coach Jim McElwain seems confident Del Rio’s spring line — 176 yards and two TDs on 10 of 11 passing — was no fluke. Del Rio has been around, after enrolling at Alabama in 2013 and then transferring to Oregon State in 2014. Now Jack Del Rio’s son is back in the SEC and after sitting out in 2015 it looks like it’s his team to lead in 2016. The front half of Florida’s schedule sets up nicely with UMass, Kentucky and North Texas at home before visiting Tennessee and Vanderbilt.

7. Georgia (10-3, 5-3): One of the constants at Georgia is the Bulldogs will always have at least one elite running back. Always. Luckily for Kirby Smart, he gets 1,100-yard rusher Sony Michel back to complement all-league RB Nick Chubb. Both are coming off of injuries and could miss the opener, however. UGA could have one of the more interesting QB battles. Uber recruit Jacob Eason is the “QB of the Future” in Athens. But is he the top Dawg now, or does Greyson Lambert (or Brice Ramsey) keep the seat warm until Eason is ready?

6. Texas A&M (8-5, 4-4): This offseason was one to remember at Texas A&M as there was a mass exodus at the QB position (see-ya, Kyler Murray and Kyle Allen), only to see the Aggies bring in Oklahoma’s Trevor Knight. Luckily for Knight, he’ll have an enviable group of receivers to throw to like Christian Kirk, Josh Reynolds, Ricky Seals-Jones and Speedy Noil. TAMU will score plenty and should have an improved defense (featuring former MGCCC Bulldog Justin Evans at safety and stud defensive end Myles Garrett) in Year 2 with John Chavis.

5. Arkansas (8-5, 5-3): I’m a believer in Bret Bielema if for no other reason than he’s arguably the most entertaining coach in the league. His Hogs also took an enormous step forward last season and could improve again in ‘16. Arkansas loves to pound the football and has a deep stable of running backs (Kody Walker, Devwah Whaley and Rawleigh Williams) behind a bruising line. If quarterback Austin Allen (who is the younger brother of Brandon Allen and has 19 career pass attempts) can be serviceable at the very least the Hogs should be in play atop the SEC West.

4. Tennessee (9-4, 5-3): Butch Jones’ Vols seem to perennially be overrated in the preseason, but this may actually be the year Tennessee cashes in on all those recruiting stars. Seriously. UT’s backfield with quarterback Joshua Dobbs and running backs Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara is as scary as any in the league and its defense should be legit with Jalen Reeves-Maybin and Derek Barnes. The Vols may be back to being Rocky Top if they can answer some glaring questions at receiver.

3. LSU (9-3, 5-3): LSU’s Brandon Harris bio says he “passes with pinpoint accuracy.” Not exactly how I would put it, but he’s not as bad as a lot of folks make him out to be. As long as his handoff skills are in mid-season form and he’s not giving the ball to the opposition with regularity, he should be fine. Most seem high on LSU’s new defensive coordinator Dave Aranda, whose Wisconsin defenses ranked in the top 10 the last three seasons. And then there’s that Leonard Fournette guy. All he has done is rush for 2,987 yards and 32 touchdowns in two seasons. Could he eclipse 2,000 this season alone? You bet.

2. Ole Miss (10-3, 6-2): The Rebels lost a lot from their Sugar Bowl team, namely Laremy Tunsil, Laquon Treadwell and Robert Nkemdiche. The Rebels have brought in top-ranked classes annually under Hugh Freeze and appear positioned to reload instead of rebuild. If Chad Kelly can stay healthy; if the Rebels beat Florida State to open the season; and if the constant NCAA questions don’t become too unbearable, the Rebels could be back in the contention conversation. A name to watch is redshirt freshman Eric Swinney. The coaching staff loved the 5-foot-9, 210-pound running back out of high school, but a stress fracture cut his freshman season short before it ever got started. Don’t be surprised if he is a breakout candidate at the end of fall camp.

1. Alabama (14-1, 7-1): Could it really be anyone else? It doesn’t matter the Tide lost Jake Coker, Derrick Henry, Kenyan Drake, Jarran Reed, A’Shawn Robinson, Ryan Kelly, etc. All Nick Saban does is dust off the under-used five-stars from the year before and elevates them to starting status. This year, Eddie Jackson, Blake Barnett, Bo Scarbrough will likely be among the latest super recruits to step up to starring roles.

This story was originally published July 12, 2016 at 1:06 PM with the headline "It’s finally time for early — but not too early — SEC predictions."