As Hurricane Matthew approaches, Caribbean nations prepare

With Hurricane Matthew forecast to strike Jamaica and the southern coast of Haiti by Monday morning, residents and government officials in the Caribbean nations prepared for the powerful storm to bring heavy rains, high winds and the risk of life-threatening floods and mud slides.

A hurricane watch was upgraded to a warning Sunday afternoon for much of Haiti and Jamaica, where government officials performed last-minute preparations. Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness toured parts of the country as fishermen and other small boat operators were ordered to remain inland for the storm.

A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for eastern Cuba from Camaguey southeastward to Guantánamo.

Sustained winds, which had decreased earlier in the day, surged to150 mph on Sunday as the storm churned slowly north toward Jamaica. Matthew remained a powerful Category 4, and tropical winds and rain are expected to impact Jamaica and Haiti by late Sunday, the National Hurricane Center announced in its most recent advisory.

One Jamaican lawmaker urged residents of a seaside village of Kingston to evacuate even as residents of the capital stocked up on storm supplies early — and emptied shelves at supermarkets by mid-afternoon.

“I’m just being prepared,” said Paul McKenzie, expressing the sentiments of many as he loaded up on supplies. “Hopefully, Matthew will not come but getting food just in case of anything.”

In Haiti, government officials placed the country on heightened alert, and advised Haitians living in low-lying areas near the southern and northwest coastlines to start preparing for Matthew.

“Unlike previous storms, this one will cause the seas to be very rough,” said Marie-Alta Jean-Baptiste, head of the Civil Protection disaster response office.

Jean-Baptiste said some fishing villages had already been evacuated and the country could expect “a big mobilization” throughout the regions expected to be impacted by the storm. Disaster response teams would be blanketing the streets warning Haitians to begin making preparations and evacuate if they live in communities prone to flooding and mudslides.

Forecasts call for Matthew to deliver its harshest impact to the southern peninsula and Grand Anse region, but the storm also could affect the West Department, which includes Port-au-Prince.

Matthew not only threatens to unleash flash floods and mudslides on a rain-soaked Haiti. It also could derail the country’s Oct. 9 rerun presidential elections, as election officials scrambled to prepare for the storm. The vote is being redone a year after the first round triggered allegations of fraud and plunged Haiti deeper into a political crisis.

The flood-prone southern city of Lea Cayes, which is in Matthew's path, is Haiti's third most populous city. There are less than 600 shelters for the entire region, with only a capacity to shelter only 88,000 residents, far less than what would be needed if the storm wiped out homes.

The hurricane warning, anticipating sustained winds of 74 mph or higher in the next 48 hours, covers all of Jamaica, and the Haitian coast from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to the city of Môle-Saint-Nicolas in the island’s northwestern region.

In their 5 p.m. report, NHC forecasters said Matthew was located about 360 miles south of the Haitian capital, Port-au-Prince, and moving south at 3 mph. Hurricane-force winds extend 25 miles from Matthew’s center.

The storm is expected to turn toward the west-northwest later Saturday, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Sunday and north on Monday.

Beyond Tuesday, however, forecasters are less confident about Matthew’s movement, said Dennis Feltgen, NHC public affairs officer and meteorologist.

“The reason for that is there’s still considerable spread in the models,” he said, explaining that the American forecast models show Matthew moving closer to Florida while the European models predict the storm tracking further east.

“It could be anywhere from Florida to east of the Bahamas,” Feltgen said. “As a result, right now it’s way too early to tell if the state of Florida will see any hurricane impacts from Matthew. We just can’t make the call.”

In anticipation of the storm, the commander of the U.S. Navy base at Guantánamo Bay ordered the evacuation of families and other so-called “non-essential personnel” from the remote outpost in southeast Cuba. It was not immediately known how many people would be flown off the base, or where they would go.

José Rubiera, of the Forecasting Center at Cuba’s Institute of Meteorology, said Matthew is a “serious threat” to the eastern part of the island, which was hit by Hurricane Sandy in 2012.

Most of the models take Matthew through the provinces of Camaguey and Granma, but Rubiera said several provinces could be affected late Monday or early Tuesday.

In Santiago de Cuba, where Sandy caused extensive damage four years ago, authorities said they would go house to house in vulnerable neighborhoods warning of the danger.

“We are going to eliminate all the risks possible and be especially vigilant along rivers, at dams and areas where the sea can penetrate,” Lázaro Expósito Canto, a member of the Party’s Central Committee in Santiago, told Granma, the Communist Party newspaper.

In Granma province, rationed food allotted for October went on sale a day early at stores where supplies were available and all bakeries were ordered to stay open through the weekend in Holguín so people could stock up on crackers and bread.

Across the eastern provinces, trees were being trimmed and sewers cleared in preparation for a swipe by Matthew, and students attending school in the countryside programs were evacuated. To prevent agricultural losses in Guantánamo province, more than 9,000 head of cattle were evacuated to safer areas and mature coffee beans were being harvested.

For Florida, the good news is that residents still have time to keep an eye on Matthew and prepare if necessary, NHC’s meteorologist Feltgen said.

Storms with paths projected to parallel the mainland coast, like Matthew, are a major challenge for forecasters. Charley in 2004 surprised the southwest coast of Florida when it veered inland sooner than expected on a projected path along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Though the hurricane is no longer intensifying, Matthew is expected to remain a powerful storm through the weekend, until it runs into the land masses of Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba in two to three days.

After that, conditions appear favorable for Matthew to regain strength as it moves into the Bahamas late in the five-day forecast period. Forecasters noted that the storm’s intensity is likely to fluctuate

In Haiti, from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to Port-au-Prince, tropical storm conditions with sustained winds of up to 73 mph are possible by late Sunday.

The storm also is expected deliver significant rainfall, with 10 to 15 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches expected across Jamaica and southern and southwestern Haiti.

As Matthew moves over Jamaica and Cuba during the next 72 hours, the storm is expected to weaken. But because forecasters are uncertain how much shear Matthew will encounter once it moves north of Cuba, new predictions show little strengthening after the storm reaches the Atlantic.

Average NHC forecaster errors are around 175 miles at Day 4 of the storm, and 230 miles at Day 5.

“Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts from Matthew in Florida,” the NHC’s 5 a.m. advisory read.

This story was originally published September 30, 2016 at 11:01 PM with the headline "As Hurricane Matthew approaches, Caribbean nations prepare."