Here’s a look at the SEC’s chances of placing two teams in the CFP
Just one weekend of college football action left, and nobody knows yet whether there will be one SEC team in the Final Four, or two.
The winner of Saturday’s SEC Championship game matching LSU and Georgia (CBS, 3 p.m.) will definitely qualify. Both teams are currently in the top four of the playoff standings. LSU’s resume is so strong that it could still earn a spot if upset. Georgia would be unlikely to survive a second loss (having also fallen to South Carolina this season). But, it’s possible other contenders could lose as well, bringing the Bulldogs through the back door.
LSU will likely close as 7-point favorites Saturday over Georgia. First numbers up offshore and in Las Vegas were in the 5.5 to six range. Professional bettors drove those higher, making it clear they like the explosive Tigers at anything below the key number of seven. Should the pointspread rise to 7.5, dog lovers would probably come in hard on the Bulldogs. Cover percentages swing near key numbers.
LSU and Georgia currently sit third and fourth on the national championship futures board at the respected Westgate in Las Vegas. Here were odds entering the week (with win percentage equivalents in parenthesis): Ohio State 7/5 (42%), Clemson 2/1 (33%), LSU 3/1 (25%), Georgia 14/1 (7%), Oklahoma 25/1 (4%), Utah 30/1 (3%), and Baylor 80/1 (1.2%).
Those add up to more than 115% because sports books build a universe larger than 100% to create a house edge.
If you’re thinking of backing either LSU or Georgia to win it all, you’ll very likely earn a larger return by betting them on the money line to win straight up Saturday, then roll over your return on money line bets through the Final Four. Georgia would be an even bigger underdog to Ohio State and Clemson than to LSU. The Tigers are currently projected to be small underdogs to either. Late-season futures prices rarely pay true odds.
Preseason favorite Alabama lost its chance to sneak into the brackets with a 48-45 loss at Auburn this past Saturday. The Crimson Tide won total yardage 515-354 and yards-per-play 6.7 to 5.4, but had two interceptions returned for touchdowns. Both Alabama and Auburn now await bowl assignments.
Other Notes
▪ Mississippi State also awaits a bowl assignment after surviving rival Ole Miss last week. You surely watched the wild ending. When handicapping Mississippi State in its bowl game, be sure to note that they were outgained 384-318 on 7.3 to 5.8 yards-per-play on their home field by an opponent that finished the season 4-8!
Many football followers were surprised Mississippi State head coach Joe Moorhead was retained after a fortunate finale to a disappointing regular season. It was Ole Miss coach Matt Luke losing his job instead.
VSiN has talked often in recent weeks about how performances vs. market expectations (preseason “Regular Season Win” totals or game-by-game pointspreads) often foreshadow coaching changes. College coaches who have been fired in recent days after failing to meet win projections: Barry Odom of Missouri after a 6-6 record against eight projected wins, Charlie Strong of South Florida after a 4-8 record against six projected wins, Matt Luke of Ole Miss after a 4-8 record against five projected wins, Steve Addazio after a 6-6 record against 6.5 projected wins.
Also, Washington head coach Chris Petersen stepped down to an advisory role after a 7-5 season missed a market target of 9.5 wins. Texas fired defensive coordinator Todd Orlando and demoted offensive coordinator Tim Beck after going 7-5 against nine projected wins.
▪ Southern Miss just missed its preseason expectation of 7.5 wins, closing with a 34-17 loss at Florida Atlantic to finish the regular season 7-5. The Golden Eagles self-destructed with five turnovers as 9-point road underdogs. They were also dominated at the point of attack, losing yards-per-play 5.9 to 3.4. They’re hoping for a chance to atone in a bowl.
▪ In college basketball, Mississippi State carries a 6-1 record (4-2-1 ATS) into Thursday night’s home game against Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs entered the week just outside the top 40 of Ken Pomeroy’s gambler-respected computer rankings (kenpom.com). Ole Miss ranks in the mid-60’s, disappointing Southern Miss near No. 250.
▪ Roasted pelican wasn’t supposed to be on the Thanksgiving week menu. But, New Orleans was torched twice last weekend by the Oklahoma City Thunder to finish its first 20 games playing just .300 basketball. The Pellies will try to set a winning tone for the next 20 at home Thursday night vs. Phoenix. That’s followed Saturday by a trip to emerging power Dallas.
Don’t consider betting on the Pelicans until their defense improves. They entered the week ranked No. 25 in the NBA in points allowed per possession. Playing the fifth-fasted pace in the league may be wearing down defensive energy.
This story was originally published December 3, 2019 at 6:08 PM.