Patrick Magee

Can the Raptors recover from shock of Game 6? Here’s a betting breakdown.

Kevin Durant leaves arena on crutches after Game 5 injury

Golden State Warriors forward Kevin Durant left the Scotiabank Arena on crutches after he sustained a possible right Achilles injury during the Warriors’ 106-105 defeat of the Toronto Raptors. Durant collapsed and had to be helped off the floor.
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Golden State Warriors forward Kevin Durant left the Scotiabank Arena on crutches after he sustained a possible right Achilles injury during the Warriors’ 106-105 defeat of the Toronto Raptors. Durant collapsed and had to be helped off the floor.

It was the shout heard ‘round the world.

From bettors who had taken the Toronto Raptors to cover the point spread in this past Monday night’s Game Six….from bettors who had backed the pre-series underdog to win the 2019 NBA World Championship at a big payoff…from avid “We the North” fans…and even from neutral observers who had watched basketball their whole lives. They all yelled incredulously, “Why are you calling a timeout?!!!”

With 3:05 left, Toronto in possession of the ball enjoying a 103-97 lead (on the heels of a 12-2 run that seemingly had the Golden State Warriors ready to wave the white flag), the Raptors made the signal.

You know what happened after the timeout. Klay Thompson trey. Steph Curry trey. Thompson again. Ball game.

Toronto head coach Nick Nurse explained later that he didn’t want to “lose” a timeout after the game went below the three-minute mark. And, he wanted to give his stars a chance to re-charge their batteries. Instead, the Warriors regained their fight. The Raptors couldn’t breathe or execute.

Action resumes Thursday night in Oakland (ABC, 8 p.m.). With Kevin Durant definitely out, oddsmakers first put Golden State on the board at -3.5. Sharps bet Toronto with the hook…and many kept betting the Raptors when global sportsbooks dropped to -3. We may see a closer below three depending on game-day action.

Why so much sharp interest in the potentially demoralized underdog?

While Toronto may still be suffering shell shock, it has established superiority when Durant is in street clothes. And, Golden State’s extended series life was the result of a massive 20-8 edge in made three-pointers Monday (on 47.6% to 25%). That will be very tough to replicate. Toronto had made six more treys in the series through the first five games.

If you accept the premise that scoring “inside the arc” is the most reliable and consistent offensive skill set, Toronto grades out as more likely to control its destiny. Here are “final scores” from this series if you through out three-pointers…

Series Scoring on 1’s and 2’s

G1: Toronto 79, Golden State 73

G2: Toronto 71, Golden State 70

G3: Golden State 73, Toronto 72

G4: Toronto 75, Golden State 68

G5: Toronto 84, Golden State 46

Sharps will take at least three points with that backdrop, as they assume trey production will regress back to series norms.

Toronto is still a hefty -300 to win the title (risk $300 to win $100, or anything in that ratio). The market isn’t yet anticipating any sort of “choke job of the century.” The Raptors have two chances to win one game. They will likely be at least three point home favorites in a seventh game if needed. Golden State is +240 to rally all the way back (risk $100 to win $240, etc…).

Let’s see if Game Six gives bettors and fans something to shout about.

Other Notes

It’s the most buzzed-about golf tournament in recent memory, which makes it a great test for the future of betting in this sport.

As you read this, the 2019 US Open is likely under way at the fabled Pebble Beach golf links. There are many prominent storylines in play involving legitimate championship threats. West Coast action allows broadcast coverage to run through prime time in the Eastern and Central time zones all weekend (FS1 and FOX).

Sports books in legal jurisdictions are expecting significant betting interest. If Tiger Woods is within striking distance heading into the weekend, it could be the biggest golf betting event ever.

Here are midweek odds to capture the US Open trophy from the Westgate in Las Vegas (respected globally for its golf pricing)…Dustin Johnson 7/1, Brooks Koepka 8/1, Tiger Woods 10/1, Rory McIlroy 10/1, Jordan Spieth 16/1, Patrick Cantlay 16/1, Rickie Fowler 20/1.

Among props available at the Westgate: Winning score 276.5 (bet -110 on either Over or Under), lowest round 65.5 (-200 to bet Under, +170 to bet Over), and the collection of Johnson, Koepka, Woods, and McIlroy getting +150 to win the title over the rest of the field (which is -180 to cash).

As expected, the US Women crushed Thailand in their 2019 Women’s World Cup debut. USA (-5 goals) scored a 13-0 victory Tuesday afternoon, reflective of the extreme talent differential. Betting markets greatly underestimated the aggressive game plan of the stars and stripes in what wouldn’t even qualify as a glorified scrimmage.

The US takes the field again Sunday against overmatched Chile, a 2-0 loser to Sweden as a two-goal underdog. Maybe the defense will get a chance to practice!

Jeff Fogle writes the daily VSiN newsletter. Sign up at VSiN.com/newsletter
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