Some things to consider before placing your Super Bowl LIV bet on Chiefs-49ers
Though the New Orleans Saints won’t be playing, Sunday’s Super Bowl LIV featuring the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs, will still be a huge betting attraction at Mississippi sports books.
The “sharp window” has been clear so far through the fortnight. And, it’s lined up with passionate support from recreational supporters for both teams.
▪ Sharps and recreational bettors who like Kansas City bet the Chiefs heavily at pick-em, and are still willing to lay -1.
▪ Opposing groups of sharps and recreational bettors like San Francisco at +1.5, with only fans of the team settling for +1.
For now, boundaries of the sharp window are pick-em (where KC gets pounded) and two (where San Francisco would get hit very hard). There’s a reasonable chance the game sits between KC -1 and -1.5. up until kickoff. It’s more likely to move up to two rather than down to pick-em because “neutral” fan bases are more likely to back the explosive offense of the Chiefs. There’s always a lot more public money than sharp money in the market for events like this.
Here’s a quick handicapping capsule for those of you who still haven’t made up your mind.
▪ Offense: Kansas City gets the nod at full strength. But, don’t forget that San Francisco ranked fourth in the league in total offense during their healthier regular season. Two elite offenses that both lit up playoff scoreboards. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs is clearly the most dynamic individual offensive threat on the field, and the player most likely to control his team’s destiny late in a close game.
▪ Defense: San Francisco has the clear edge here. The Chiefs improved in the latter stages of the season, but not enough to be considered in San Francisco’s class. If you’re an old-schooler who believes that “defense wins championships,” then the Niners are your side.
▪ Turnover Potential: Kansas City had the slightly better differential during the regular season at +8, then split out even (1-1 in total) vs. Houston and Tennessee. San Francisco was only +4 during the regular season, but was +3 in the playoffs (5-2, keyed by a 3-0 edge over Green Bay). Running the ball is the “safest” means of transport. If SF continues to run well, it will probably win the turnover battle. If Jimmy Garappolo is forced to throw high-risk passes downfield, that flips the edge to the Chiefs.
In some seasons, strength of schedule is a great hidden indicator. Teams who earned their way to the Super Bowl while playing tough schedules offer value vs. those who had it easy. For Niners/Chiefs, it’s a virtual dead heat. Jeff Sagarin’s evaluations at USA Today have them both playing roughly league average schedules. Both managed to dodge the most dangerous foes in their respective conference brackets (New Orleans, Baltimore).
VSiN wishes everyone good luck with your bets!
Basketball Notes
▪ Mississippi State has been cleaning up for backers in recent action. The Bulldogs have now covered six in a row after upsetting Florida 78-71 Tuesday night as six-point underdogs. They’re only 4-2 straight up in that stretch because of one-point road losses at LSU and Oklahoma. But, those are “good losses” for bettors and for NCAA Tournament consideration.
State is back on the floor Saturday in Starkville vs. Tennessee (ESPNU, 1 p.m.). The inconsistent Vols just played tough at Kansas before getting shocked at home by lowly Texas A&M. The Bulldogs must avoid looking ahead to their highest-profile game of the season Tuesday night at Kentucky (ESPN, 8 p.m.)
Mississippi State’s Current Records: 13-7 straight up, 12-7-1 against the spread, 4-3 straight up in the SEC, 5-2 ATS.
▪ Ole Miss ended a long dry spell with a couple of pointspread covers. But, this past Tuesday’s double overtime loss to Auburn felt more like a gut punch than a Gatorade bath. The Rebels blew a 19-point second-half lead to drop its sixth game straight up in seven SEC tries.
Ole Miss (+5.5) did cash tickets in the 83-82 loss, as they had last weekend in a 70-60 upset of Georgia as 6.5-point underdogs. But Ole Miss was 0-7-1 ATS in the prior eight outings.
Tough challenge Saturday at LSU (ESPN2, 11 a.m.). Ole Miss then hosts South Carolina Wednesday in Oxford (SEC Network, 6 p.m.)
Ole Miss’ Current Records: 10-10 straight up, 8-11-1 against the spread, 1-6 straight up in the SEC, 2-4-1 ATS.
▪ Zion Williamson and the New Orleans Pelicans will provide a great lead-in to the Super Bowl on Sunday. They visit the Houston Rockets at 1 p.m. in a game that will be nationally televised by ABC. Sports books love creating cross-sport propositions between the Super Bowl and big NBA TV games that day. Keep an eye out for possibilities at your favorite store.