How to approach betting on a Super Bowl that features such a tight spread
By now, you’ve probably figured out who you’re going to bet to win and cover Sunday’s Super Bowl LIV matching the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers. You may have already bet them, with little reason to wait for pointspread moves to create “line value.”
Based on action indicators through much of the football fortnight, Sunday’s showdown is likely to close between pick-em and Kansas City -1.5. Though the Chiefs were the “public” side in early betting at pick-em or -1, San Francisco supporters have jumped on +1.5 when available, and are still representing at +1.
This is going to be a heavily bet game with action split relatively evenly…near a victory-margin range that’s proven sparse in Super Bowl history.
▪ If the game closes pick-em…well, it’s impossible for a Super Bowl to end in a tie! If needed, they’ll play overtime for as long as it takes to determine a winner.
▪ Through 53 Super Bowls, there’s never been an instance of the favorite winning by exactly one point. The only scoreboard result that close came way back in 1991, when the NY Giants (+6.5) upset the Buffalo Bills 20-19.
▪ No Super Bowls have ever landed on two, either for a dog or a favorite. Should Kansas City rise to -2 between now and kickoff, that’s still unlikely percentage-wise to influence the cover.
The range from -2.5 to +2.5 is a virtual black hole in Super Bowl betting. As close as the Chiefs/Niners matchup is perceived, the final victory margin is still likely to be three or more for whoever wins. San Francisco +2.5 may not be any more valuable than San Francisco +1 or +1.5. If Chiefs backers were to get +1.5 points in a surprise development, that’s not much of a difference from -1 when a tie is impossible.
With the Over/Under, timing was more important because of very strong early support for the Over. Sharps and recreational bettors alike pounded totals from 52 through 54 after last Sunday’s conference championship games landed on 57 (Green Bay/SF) and 59 (Tennessee/KC) respectively. You probably watched the December 8 fireworks show featuring San Francisco and New Orleans in the Superdome that ended 48-46. Point lovers had to move quickly! Contrarians are still waiting to see if they can go Under 55.5 or 56.
But, even with the total…we’re in a very quiet range of Super Bowl scoring history. Only five games out of 53 have landed between 52 and 55. They’re much more likely to blow up like the 41-33 thriller matching Philadelphia and New England two years ago, or “blow down” like last year’s 13-3 grinder with the Pats and the Los Angeles Rams.
As you consider extra “prop” bets on individual players or team performance between now and kickoff, remember that volatile potential could create extreme results in either direction. The ONLY sure thing in Super Bowl betting is that there won’t be a tie.
Other betting notes
▪ Zion Williamson and the New Orleans Pelicans have been getting a lot of respect in the line since his return from injury. Though scoreboard results could continue to be erratic as the young phenom builds up his per-game minutes, it’s clear that odddsmakers and sharps now consider the Pellies a “playoff caliber” team.
They may not reach the playoffs after digging a big early hole. But, they were recently home favorites over both playoff-bound Denver and Boston at pointspreads consistent with quality. Their road-favorite price at Cleveland Tuesday would have comfortably equated to a double-digit line in the Big Easy.
Be sure you continue to monitor markets for Friday’s home game vs. Memphis, and Sunday’s national TV showcase at Houston. Only bet the Pellies if you believe the oddsmakers aren’t giving them enough credit for Zion’s likely impact when healthy.They may not reach the playoffs after digging a big early hole. But, they were recently home favorites over both playoff-bound Denver and Boston at pointspreads consistent with quality. Their road-favorite price at Cleveland Tuesday would have comfortably equated to a double-digit line in the Big Easy.
▪ We didn’t want the SEC/Big 12 challenge to get too far in the rearview mirror before discussing its potential betting impact. The SEC went 5-5 straight up and ATS, while continuing to express a theme that “underdog spoilers” are more likely to make March headlines than inconsistent favorites.
The bad news: Auburn (-8.5) had to sweat Iowa State in an 80-76 win, Alabama (-9) had to sweat Kansas State in a 77-74 win, and Florida (-2) was humbled badly by Baylor in a 72-61 home loss.
The good news: Kentucky (+3.5) covered “twice” at Texas Tech, once in regulation and again in overtime in a 76-74 upset, Tennessee (+13) hung very tough in a 74-68 loss at powerful Kansas, and both LSU and Mississippi State covered as short underdogs in tight nail biters at Texas and Oklahoma respectively.
SEC postseason entries will be able to play with anybody, but may not be counted on to produce on command when expected to.
Oh, entering the new week in Ken Pomeroy’s market-respected computer rankings, the SEC had ZERO teams in the top 24, but eight teams ranked between No. 25 and No. 50. A lot of spoilers, but no superpowers.