Here are some tips to follow while betting on games this bowl season

With the college football bowl slate kicking off Friday, recreational bettors are in danger of digging early holes by betting games that are best left alone.

Hey, if you’ve been following some of these teams, and you trust your read against the market, go for it! That’s not forcing action, that’s betting smart.

But, if you don’t know much about Buffalo or Charlotte (Bahamas Bowl, Friday, 1 p.m., ESPN)…or Utah State or Kent State (Frisco Bowl, Friday, 6:30 p.m., ESPN2)…don’t invent reasons to place bets just because you want action, or because you’re dreaming of winning every game on the way to fame and riches.

Your “leans” (or, admit it…blind guesses) will probably split out over time, forcing you to eat the vigorish. For newcomers, that’s the 10% surcharge on lost bets. Wagerers must risk $110 to win $100 (or anything in that ratio).

Worse, you may have a cold run with teams you don’t know much about that limits stronger bets you could have made when major conferences take the field after Christmas. Sports books don’t accept coal from a stocking.

Here are common early-bowl mistakes made by casual bettors…

▪ Assuming all the favorites will be flat in minor matchups. This used to be a great trend when there weren’t too many bowls. Now, many underdogs aren’t really “bowl caliber” to begin with. Why bet on a horrible dog with your fingers crossed?

▪ Assuming late-season form will carry over to the bowl. That does happen sometimes. But, it’s not uncommon to see a team that looked great in its regular season finale (or minor conference championship game) have nothing left in the emotional tank. Or, to see a late slumper rise to the occasion after some time off.

▪ Assuming bad defenses are going to benefit from a few weeks off. Bad defenses usually struggle because of poor skill sets, not fatigue. Don’t ask bad defenses to win bets for you.

▪ Assuming a mediocre (or worse) offense is going to install trick plays that will hit pay dirt. Why would a struggling offense cleanly execute a trick play if it can’t even move the ball with its normal offense?

If you’re reading this, you probably have strong insights into Southeastern Conference football, and maybe Southern Miss’s Conference USA. Focus on bowl games involving those teams, making sure you thoroughly evaluate the skill sets of their opponents.

Other Notes

▪ VSiN had hoped to spend a lot of time discussing the New Orleans Pelicans this season. Unfortunately, a horrible start has kept the Pellies on the back burner. If you were enthusiastic out of the gate, you already stopped betting them!

New Orleans entered the new week as one of the worst NBA teams both straight up and against the spread. The Pelicans will stay a “fade or pass” investment until they show signs of consistency.

▪ If you’re thinking of betting more basketball now that football is winding down, Thursday night’s TNT doubleheader will surely get you in the mood. The Los Angeles Lakers visit the Milwaukee Bucks (7 p.m.) in a potential championship series preview. That’s followed by the Houston Rockets at the Los Angeles Clippers, two Western Conference teams who could easily prevent LeBron James from reaching another Finals.

The Lakers were surprisingly strong against the spread out of the gate, though hurdles have been getting very high recently. Of that TNT foursome, only Houston had a losing ATS record entering the week.

▪ Undefeated No. 12 Auburn represents the SEC in a big TV matchup Thursday vs. North Carolina State (ESPN2, 8 p.m.). If college is more your style than the NBA, we’ll also direct you to Wofford at No. 4 Duke (ESPN2, 6 p.m.), because Wofford just upset North Carolina this past Sunday and Duke fell at Cameron Indoor not too long ago to Stephen F. Austin.

▪ Entering the new week, here were Ken Pomeroy’s market-respected national rankings of SEC teams (as posted at kenpom.com): Kentucky No. 7, Auburn No. 17, Tennessee No. 22, LSU No. 27, Arkansas No. 29, Florida No. 38, Mississippi State No. 51, Missouri No. 56, Ole Miss No. 70, Georgia No. 78, Alabama No. 81, South Carolina No. 104, Vanderbilt No. 129, Texas A&M No. 161.

Oddsmakers and sharps both use Pomeroy’s data when creating pointspreads or making bets. Make sure it’s one of your resources.