Betting on Yankees-Red Sox? Here are tips on how to approach the London games.
History will be made Saturday and Sunday when the New York Yankees battle the Boston Red Sox in London, England. Oddsmakers and bettors will have to deal with the very rare challenge of “neutral field” baseball.
Game day money lines will give you a very good sense of how betting markets perceive these rivals at the moment. Though, it’s worth remembering that Boston has been one of the most overrated teams in MLB all season. The defending World Champions are down 15.41 betting units according to the standings page at covers.com. This despite being six games over .500 at 44-38.
New York has earned profits for backers. But high prices are an issue there as well. The Yankees lead the American League East with a 52-28 record (24 games over .500), but are only up 10.26 betting units.
Both games will get prominent national TV coverage in the states. FOX will televise Saturday’s showdown at 12:10 p.m. (prime time in England). ESPN will serve baseball for breakfast Sunday at 9 a.m. (a tea time diversion at London Stadium Sunday afternoon).
MLB power brokers had hoped this would be a fight for divisional supremacy. But, the Yankees have played so well that the Red Sox are already an AL East longshot with half a season to go.
▪ New York has won 11 of its last 12 games to take a commanding lead. The Yanks are on pace to win more than 100 games even though many key starters have missed extended time with injuries. The Bronx Bombers could IMPROVE in the season’s second half!
▪ Boston just dropped three of its last five home games to losing teams Toronto and the Chicago White Sox. And the Red Sox full season record against winning teams is a disappointing 17-22 (the Yanks are 20-11).
Composite odds from sportsbooks around the globe show the Yankees at -500 to win the division (risk $500 just to win $100, or anything in that ratio). Boston is +800 (risk $100 to win $800, etc…). While Boston’s still expected by futures markets to make the playoffs as a wildcard, its yet to shake what’s become an extended championship hangover.
VSiN has always encouraged baseball bettors to focus on “road only” stats when evaluating players and teams. This takes potential home ballpark effect pollution out of the mix. Current data helps explain why the Yankees are such decisive market favorites.
New York is averaging an astonishing six runs per game on the road this season. Boston is more than a half-run back at 5.4. While both teams have posted batting averages of .263 away from home, the Yankees are getting more runners on base (a .345 to .340 edge in on-base percentage), and launching more big blasts (a .459 to .441 edge in slugging percentage).
At the moment, the Yankees are clearly the better team. Does that mean they’ll rule Britannia? That’s for you to decide once you see game-day money lines. Good luck with your bets!
Other Notes
▪ Over in the National League, the Atlanta Braves get a rare showcase appearance this week on Sunday Night Baseball (ESPN, 6 p.m.). A recent winning streak helped Hotlanta pull away from the pack in the National League East. The Braves were sitting at the .500 mark as recently as May 14. They played roughly .700 baseball over the next six weeks!
A global composite of futures odds show Atlanta at -500 to win its division (just like the Yankees). That would have been unthinkable earlier this season. They’re +450 to win the National League, and a respectable 10/1 to win the World Series in a loaded field where the public wants to bet the Yankees, Houston Astros, and Los Angeles Dodgers.
▪ We start and end this week’s report in England. Wimbledon begins Monday at the All England Lawn Tennis Club. Here’s a quick peak at overseas composite futures prices on the favorites…
Men: Novak Djokovic 6/4, Roger Federer 3/1, Rafael Nadal 11/2, Stefanos Tsitsipas 16/1, Alexander Zverev 20/1.
Women: Ashleigh Barty 4/1, Serena Williams 6/1, Angelique Kerber 10/1, Petra Kvitova 11/1, Naomi Osaka 12/1, Karolina Pliskova 14/1.
Sharps generally believe you get better value focusing on head-to-head matchups deeper in the tournament. You’re not receiving “true odds” on futures bets with popular betting choices like Djokovic and Federer, or even rising star Barty. But, those prices do give you a sense of expectations entering this storied event.
This story was originally published June 28, 2019 at 11:58 AM.