AP Top 25 against the spread: Ohio State-Penn State, Stanford-Irish lead a loaded slate

This Saturday’s slate of games has to rate as one of the best of the season with five games featuring a pair of Top 25 squads.

Aside from those contests, Florida-Mississippi State, South Carolina-Kentucky, Texas-Kansas State and Syracuse-Clemson also stand out as quality match-ups.

On a weekend full of gut checks, No. 1 Alabama (4-0) and No. 2 Georgia (4-0) should have it easy. The Crimson Tide host Louisiana-Lafayette and a struggling Tennessee squad travels to Athens.

The team best positioned for a letdown this week is No. 17 Kentucky, which stunned Mississippi State 28-7 on Saturday in Lexington. The Wildcats (4-0) play host to South Carolina (2-1) at 6:30 p.m.

I’m betting the Gamecocks kill Kentucky’s buzz for at least one Saturday.

Here’s how I see the this week’s games playing out:

7 p.m., Thursday — North Carolina at No. 16 Miami (-18.0) — A week full of great games starts out with what will probably be a dud. My pick: Miami covers — Miami 41, North Carolina 20.

11 a.m., Saturday — Louisiana-Lafayette at No. 1 Alabama (-49.5) — The Cajuns (1-2) are having a tough time of it under first-year coach Billy Napier. My pick: Bama covers — Alabama 56, ULL 3.

11 a.m., Saturday — Syracuse at No. 3 Clemson (-23.0) — The Orange are 4-0 against a relatively weak schedule. My pick: Clemson covers — Clemson 42, Syracuse 17.

11 a.m., Saturday — No. 12 West Virginia at No. 25 Texas Tech (+4.0) — It’s been a weird season for the Red Raiders, giving up 47 to Ole Miss in a loss and 49 to Houston in a win. On Saturday, they beat Oklahoma State 41-17. I don’t see the Tech defense keeping it up. My pick: WVU covers — West Virginia 49, Texas Tech 27.

11 a.m., Saturday — Central Michigan at No. 21 Michigan State (-28.5) — Neither team has been that impressive to start the season. My pick: Central Michigan covers — Michigan State 42, Central Michigan 14.

2:30 p.m., Saturday — Tennessee at No. 2 Georgia (-32.0) — The Volunteers (2-2) are headed in the wrong direction in a hurry after last week’s 47-21 drubbing by Florida. My pick: Bulldogs cover — Georgia 48, Tennessee 13.

2:30 p.m., Saturday — Baylor at No. 6 Oklahoma (-24.0) — The Sooners (4-0) looked like world beaters the first two weeks, but have suddenly come back down to earth in tight/competitive contests against Iowa State and Army. My pick: Sooners cover — Oklahoma 42, Baylor 17.

2:30 p.m., Saturday — Pittsburgh at No. 13 UCF (-15.0) — My pick: UCF covers — UCF 45, Pittsburgh 28.

2:30 p.m., Saturday — No. 18 Texas at Kansas State (-9.0) — Kansas State (2-2) is apparently a mediocre football team at best. My pick: Longhorns cover — Texas 31, Kansas State 17.

3 p.m., Saturday — Southern Miss at No. 10 Auburn (-28.0) — The Auburn offense hasn’t been quite as potent as expected, but it’s hard to see Southern Miss (2-1) giving the Tigers a serious challenge on the road. The ULM defensive line won the battle up front in a 21-20 win at USM on Sept. 8 and the Tigers are much better in their front seven. My pick: USM covers — Auburn 45, Southern Miss 21.

3:30 p.m., Saturday — No. 14 Michigan at Northwestern (-13.5) — Shea Patterson has settled in nicely as the Michigan QB, completing 70.1 percent of his passes. My pick: Michigan covers — Michigan 42, Northwestern 20.

5 p.m., Saturday — Florida at No. 23 Mississippi State (-7.0) — It’s hard to get a good feel on this game after Florida took a step forward last week while Mississippi State took a significant step back at Kentucky. My pick: Bulldogs cover — Mississippi State 31, Florida 24.

6 p.m., Saturday — Virginia Tech at No. 22 Duke (-5.5) — I picked Virginia Tech to beat Old Dominion 56-10 last week. The Hokies lost 49-35. My pick: Blue Devils cover — Duke 35, Virginia Tech 28.

6:30 p.m., Saturday — No. 4 Ohio State at No. 9 Penn State (+3.5) — The season has been relatively drama free for the Buckeyes (4-0) so far. My pick: Ohio State covers — Ohio State 42, Penn State 31.

6:30 p.m., Saturday — No. 7 Stanford at No. 8 Notre Dame (-4.5) — Stanford (4-0) keeps finding a way, but Notre Dame (4-0) seemed to find their stride on offense last week against Wake Forest. My pick: Irish cover — Notre Dame 31, Stanford 24.

6:30 p.m., Saturday — No. 20 BYU at No. 11 Washington (-17.5) — BYU (3-1) is off to an impressive start, but this will be a tough trip for the Cougars. My pick: Huskies cover — Washington 41, BYU 20.

6:30 p.m., Saturday — South Carolina at No. 17 Kentucky (-1.0) — Kentucky (4-0) has failed to cover their last eight games as a home favorite. My pick: Gamecocks cover — South Carolina 28, Kentucky 20.

8 p.m., Saturday — Ole Miss at No. 5 LSU (-12.5) — Ole Miss (3-1) has hit a lull after playing well in the season opener against Texas Tech. My pick: LSU covers — LSU 42, Ole Miss 17.

9:30 p.m., Saturday — No. 19 Oregon at No. 24 California (+3.0) — Oregon (3-1) choked big time against Stanford last week. The Ducks led 24-7 at the half before falling 38-31. My pick: Ducks cover — Oregon 35, California 30.

Other games:

2:30 p.m., Saturday — South Alabama at Appalachian State (-26) — South Alabama hung with Memphis for a while last week, but Appalachian State should keep rolling. My pick: Mountaineers cover — Appalachian State 49, South Alabama 20.

6:30 p.m., Saturday — Louisiana Tech at North Texas (-7.5) — This game will likely decide the Conference USA West. La. Tech put up a nice fight at LSU last week, but the Mean Green (4-0) may very well be the favorite in each of its remaining regular season games. My pick: North Texas covers — North Texas 35, Louisiana Tech 24.

This story was originally published September 25, 2018 at 12:10 PM.