5 college and 5 pro games to watch this weekend
NOTRE DAME-WAKE FOREST
Brian Kelly did a masterful coaching job and humbled Jim Harbaugh in the season opener. The Irish were better prepared than Michigan and brought the fight on Sept. 1. In its past two games, Notre Dame was far less impressive, and quarterback Brandon Wimbush regressed. Kelly is searching for an offensive identity while the defense leads the way.
The Irish were emotionally flat against Ball State and then flat-out lucky to escape Vanderbilt’s upset bid in a 22-17 scare last week. Kyle Shurmur passed for 326 yards and was driving the Commodores for the potential winning score. Wimbush, intercepted three times by the Cardinals, threw for only 122 and rushed for 84 yards against Vandy. He has completed 55 percent of his passes with one touchdown in three games.
When the Irish hit the road for the first time, Wimbush must be much better. Freshman Sam Hartman is a similar dual-threat quarterback for Wake, which got its offense going in a 41-34 loss to Boston College. Look for Wimbush and the ND offense to wake up against a mediocre defense this week.
However, the Demon Deacons, 10-3-1 against the spread in their past 14 in the underdog role, are live getting 8 points in Winston-Salem.
GEORGIA-MISSOURI
There are only a few serious tests on Georgia’s schedule. This is one, and the Bulldogs still are 14-point road favorites.
Kirby Smart is making a two-quarterback system work, although Jake Fromm is getting most of the playing time. Fromm is 37 of 46 (80.4 percent) with six touchdown passes, while highly-touted freshman Justin Fields is 14 of 17 with two TDs through the air. The running attack is in great hands with Elijah Holyfield, son of the former boxing champ, and D’Andre Swift. Smart’s reloaded defense quieted preseason concerns in a dominant 41-17 win at South Carolina two weeks ago.
But the Georgia defense will get a stress test from Tigers quarterback Drew Lock, who has completed 69 percent of his passes with 11 touchdowns and one interception. Lock threw for 375 yards in a 40-37 win at Purdue, yet he was upstaged statistically by the opposing quarterback as the Boilermakers’ David Blough passed for 572 yards and three TDs. It’s obvious the Missouri defense has more holes than a screen door, and the Bulldogs are built to knock the door down.
Two touchdowns might be too much to lay on the road, but who has the guts to bet against Georgia?
TEXAS A&M-ALABAMA
It’s not a misprint. Alabama is a 27-point favorite against a Southeastern Conference team that is 3-0 ATS and took Clemson to the wire two weeks ago. The scores from the Tide’s first three games — 51-14, 57-7 and 62-7 — are more impressive than they appear. Alabama has faced quality opponents and could have run up bigger margins in all three games if Nick Saban were not such a nice guy. Saban knew all along that Tua Tagovailoa would be his starting quarterback, but Saban strung out the announcement to keep Jalen Hurts from transferring.
Tagovailoa has toyed with three decent defenses while completing 72 percent of his passes for 646 yards and eight touchdowns with no interceptions. Tua is the Heisman Trophy favorite (+175 at the Westgate sports book) and might actually become the odds-on favorite if he remains healthy into November.
Jimbo Fisher is off to a solid start at A&M and quarterback Kellen Mond is operating the offense better than expected, but the Aggies played two weaklings aside from the Clemson game in College Station. There is temptation to say this line is inflated and the ‘dog is worth a shot, but there are easier ways to make a living — driving a garbage truck or digging ditches, for example — than betting against this Alabama monster.
STANFORD-OREGON
It made perfect sense for Cardinal coach David Shaw to rest star running back Bryce Love against UC Davis a week ago. Shaw seemingly had no choice.
The official word was that Love sat out to rest minor ailments, though sources say Love suffered a concussion the previous week against USC. Whatever the truth, Love is ready to run against the Ducks.
Stanford has owned Oregon lately, winning the past two meetings 49-7 and 52-27. Love is off to a slow start (40 carries, 165 yards, one touchdown) and fading from the Heisman race. But with Oregon, Notre Dame and Utah next up on the schedule, he’s set for a few showcase games.
The Cardinal have the capability to win the Pac-12 because of their offensive options. K.J. Costello is maturing as a quarterback and JJ Arcega-Whiteside is one of the nation’s top wideouts. It’s no longer Shaw’s typically conservative, one-dimensional attack, and Costello can go deep into the playbook. Ducks quarterback Justin Herbert is a known commodity, and he has 12 TD passes in three wins, but Oregon as a whole remains somewhat of a mystery after games against Bowling Green, Portland State and San Jose State — three of the worst teams on the planet. This is a big step up in competition for the Ducks.
Considering the Cardinal’s recent dominance in the rivalry, Stanford looks like the right side as a 1½-point favorite.
WISCONSIN-IOWA
The Big Ten took some punches last week and the Badgers emerged with an ugly black eye. Wisconsin was a 23-point favorite in its 24-21 loss to Brigham Young, which was more physical and controlled most of the game.
How will the Badgers respond to their first nonconference home loss in 15 years? A trip to Iowa City is not a soft landing spot. The Hawkeyes hammered Ohio State 55-24 on the same field a year ago. Wisconsin’s workhorse is Jonathan Taylor, who has 77 carries for 515 yards and five TDs.
But Alex Hornibrook has not been the same quarterback who torched the Miami defense in the Orange Bowl. Iowa has the more reliable passer in Nate Stanley, and its defense held Iowa State to only a field goal two weeks ago. This is a classic Kirk Ferentz-coached team that will try to win ugly. Taylor should be the best player on the field, but will Hornibrook do enough to help the Badgers bounce back?
Ferentz has covered four of his past five as a home ‘dog and looks appealing getting 3½ to 4 points. Most likely, Wisconsin wins a low-scoring wrestling match because of Taylor.
JETS-BROWNS
This is probably the week the Browns stop their winless streak. Are you bold enough to bet on it?
Two games into his third year as coach, Hue Jackson’s record is 1-32-1. And for only the second time in Jackson’s 35 games on the sideline, Cleveland is the favorite. The sharp money is on the Browns laying 3 points on Thursday night. It’s a game unfit for prime time, but it’s also a car wreck that you probably can’t resist watching.
If the Browns fail again, it might spell the end for Jackson as coach and Tyrod Taylor as the starting quarterback. Taylor, by the way, is 7-1 straight up and 7-0-1 ATS when his team is coming off consecutive losses. With the No. 1 pick in this year’s draft, Baker Mayfield, waiting for his shot to start, the quarterback picked No. 3 will start his third game for the Jets. Sam Darnold, who won his debut at Detroit, passed for 334 yards and a touchdown but also threw two interceptions Sunday in a 20-12 loss to Miami. On Thursday, Darnold will be the ‘dog to the team that epitomizes underdog status in the NFL.
Cleveland’s only previous attempt in the favorite’s role under Jackson was in Week 3 last year, when the Browns were 1-point favorites in a 31-28 loss at Indianapolis. The Browns were 8-24 against the spread under Jackson before covering the past two weeks, and Cleveland has not won as a favorite since December 2015. It’s probably time. But this bettor will pass.
COLTS-EAGLES
The return of quarterback Carson Wentz, who was on course to be MVP before a knee injury in December, should be a big boost for Philadelphia. The Eagles have several other issues, however, after allowing 436 yards in a 27-21 loss at Tampa Bay.
Ryan Fitz-magic was able to accomplish what Tom Brady could not in taking down the Super Bowl champs. It should not be a surprise if Wentz is a little rusty after a long layoff, and he’s facing an Indianapolis defense that ranks surprisingly high at No. 10 after two games. The return of Andrew Luck after more than a year away is going better than expected. Luck has completed 71.4 percent of his passes (60-for-84) for 498 yards and four touchdowns. The Colts could get an injured starter back on the offensive line this week, and running back Marlon Mack’s return helped some in an impressive 21-9 win at Washington in Week 2.
Luck has a strong track record in the road ‘dog role, as he cashed again last week, but the Eagles are 14-4-1 ATS at home under coach Doug Pederson and will be hungry to bounce back after getting humbled by the Buccaneers.
It’s a tough decision to make with the line sitting at 6½. At 7, the Colts could be worth taking.
PACKERS-REDSKINS
No injury drama surrounds Aaron Rodgers this week, though he’s still got a sore knee and is not full speed.
Rodgers at half strength is probably enough to beat the Redskins. Still, it’s not that simple. This is a tricky situation on the road. After two incredibly dramatic games at Lambeau Field, the Packers could hit an emotional flat spot. Green Bay should be 2-0 but a bogus roughing-the-passer penalty on Clay Matthews negated a Kirk Cousins interception and kept Minnesota alive in last week’s tie.
Washington’s opening win at Arizona is not as impressive as it seemed at the time. The Redskins regressed against the Colts. Alex Smith repeatedly checked down to short throws and Adrian Peterson resembled an aging running back. Peterson was limited to 20 yards on 11 carries following his 96-yard performance against the pathetic Cardinals. These are two of the league’s most efficient quarterbacks. Rodgers has not thrown an interception in 72 pass attempts, and Smith has a 71.1 completion percentage with no picks in 76 pass attempts. Green Bay figures to be a popular public play. Everybody loves Rodgers, and the public will turn on Washington after its weak effort last week.
It’s not as easy as it appears to lay the 3 points with the Packers.
CHARGERS-RAMS
Here we go again with the Chargers. More bad luck with injuries and another slow start in September. The betting trend that holds true with the Chargers year after year is Philip Rivers cashing more often than not in the road ‘dog role.
The battle for Los Angeles is not exactly a real road trip, but it is on the Rams’ home field at the Coliseum. Rivers is 16-10-1 ATS as a road underdog the past four years, and his record is 26-12-1 going back to 2012. The Chargers’ pass rush was supposed to be their strength, but a foot injury will sideline Joey Bosa into October and he has been missed. In the Chargers’ season-opening loss to Kansas City, Patrick Mahomes was rarely under pressure and shredded the secondary with deep throws.
The Chargers bounced back with a win at Buffalo, but does that really count? The Bills are the NFL’s worst team. Arizona ranks 31st, and the Rams just crushed the Cardinals 34-0. So both L.A. teams are off of light workouts heading into this neighborhood street fight. The Rams’ advantages will be with their defensive front and running attack. Todd Gurley has 150 yards on 39 carries for a pedestrian average of 3.8 per carry, but the Chargers ranked 31st in run defense in 2017 by allowing 131.1 yards per game. The absence of Bosa is a big deal.
Expect the Rams to run to a win, but take Rivers and 7 points.
COWBOYS-SEAHAWKS
The demise of the Seahawks is now obvious to everyone, even to Pete Carroll. Only one defensive starter from Seattle’s last Super Bowl team was on the field Monday night in Chicago, and that was safety Earl Thomas, who desperately wants to play for Dallas.
The Seahawks were without injured linebackers Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright, and Russell Wilson was operating a shorthanded offense in a 24-17 loss to the Bears. Wilson has been sacked a league-high 12 times in two losses. The home-field dominance in Seattle is history, with Carroll 2-7 ATS in his past nine at home. A Dallas defense which pummeled Giants quarterback Eli Manning will pressure Wilson, although he’s far more mobile. The Cowboys want to win with defense, the running of Ezekiel Elliott and efficient passing from Dak Prescott. That formula could cash in a low-scoring game in Seattle.
Early money is showing on the 1-point road ‘dog.