SEC football has Vegas believing after a hot start in Week 1

What a week for the SEC. Straight up AND against the spread!

If you follow college football, you likely know that the Southeastern Conference went 13-1 straight up in the first full week of the 2018 regular season. Only Tennessee failed to win. Not surprising because the Vols were 10-point underdogs to West Virginia.

Against market expectations, the SEC went 11-3. Joining Tennessee on the “didn’t get the money” list were Georgia (-48) in a 45-0 win over Austin Peay, and Kentucky (-17) in a 35-20 win over Central Michigan.

A huge week definitely worth getting excited about. And it’s good initial evidence that the SEC has been underrated by betting markets entering the new season. But many of the point spread covers came in virtual scrimmages against out-manned small college opponents. Covering the spread in those games could have been a favorite being a bully rather than being underrated.

Handicappers trying to evaluate whether or not the SEC has truly been underrated by the market need to focus on performance in the most indicative tests. An ideal approach is to focus on point spread results vs. legitimate competition. Frontline talent vs. frontline talent. How “underrated” were teams SEC teams facing challenges?

SEC at -24 or Less Last Week

Alabama (-22.5) beat Louisville 51-14

Kentucky (-17) beat C. Michigan 35-20 (non-cover)

Vanderbilt (-3) beat Middle Tennessee 35-7

Ole Miss (-2) beat Texas Tech 47-27

Auburn (-1.5) beat Washington 21-16

LSU (+3) beat Miami 33-17

Tennessee (+10) lost to W. Virginia 40-14 (non-cover)

Seven games in the sample. A 6-1 record straight up, 5-2 against the spread.

Most impressive to VSiN were the large margins of victory against the line. In descending order, Vanderbilt covered by 25 points, LSU by 19, Ole Miss by 18, Alabama by 14.5, and Auburn by 3.5. Four of the five covers were by more than two touchdowns. The “average” result over the full seven-game sampling (counting against-the-spread losses) was a cover of 8.9 points.

THAT is good evidence that the SEC was underrated out of the gate. We’ll monitor point spread performance in the coming weeks to see how quickly (or slowly) the market adjusts.

Three great results for the Mississippi-based teams we’ll be focusing on in the Sun Herald this season:

▪ You already know Ole Miss (-2) beat Texas Tech 47-27. Huge game for quarterback Jordan Ta’amu against a soft defense in front of a national TV audience. We discussed that potential last week. Ole Miss passed for 336 yards on the way to a 546-486 yardage advantage. Yards-per-play was even more dramatic, with the Rebels winning 9.1 to 5.1. This talented offense is going to obliterate mediocre or worse defenses.

▪ Mississippi State (-35.5) beat Stephen F. Austin 63-6. Domination across the board, with a 618-254 yardage advantage. Bulldogs won the first half 35-3, the second half 28-3.

▪ Southern Miss (-32.5) beat Jackson State 55-7. Hosts coasted after jumping out to a 41-0 halftime lead. A yardage win of 457-199, with scoreboard help from a punt return touchdown and a fumble return touchdown.

This week:

▪ Mississippi State is (-9.5) at Kansas State in a game that will be nationally televised by ESPN at 11 a.m. Kansas State barely survived South Dakota 27-24 as a 24-point favorite in Manhattan last week.

▪ Southern Miss is (-6) vs. Louisiana Monroe. Last week Monroe barely survived SE Louisiana 34-31 as a 21-point favorite.

▪ Ole Miss hosts Southern Illinois. That’s an “extra” game in Las Vegas terms because the Salukis aren’t a major conference team. There should be a (very high) point spread available on game day.

Back with you Saturday to discuss the New Orleans Saints’ season opener at home against the Tampa Bay Bucs.