Point spreads offer insight into how teams are ranked by sports books
One of the side benefits of having so many competitive games on the weekend college football schedule is that bettors get an immediate sense of how teams are “really” rated in the national picture.
Washington may be ranked higher than Auburn in the AP poll. But, Auburn is the neutral field favorite in the huge showdown everyone will be watching at 2:30 p.m. on ABC. That tells us that Auburn is seen as superior in the eyes of the most respected betting influences in the market. Or, at the very least, the teams are dead even if you choose to give Auburn slight “home field” credit for playing in SEC country in Atlanta.
Notre Dame may be ranked higher than Michigan. But, that prime time showcase on NBC (6:30 p.m.) is a virtual pick-em in South Bend! Home field advantage is usually worth about three points. The market sees Michigan as 2-3 points better entering the season.
Florida State may be ranked just one spot better than Virginia Tech. But, the Seminoles are currently laying anywhere from -7 to -7.5 points in Monday night’s special attraction on ESPN at 7 p.m. Oddsmakers and professional wagerers obviously don’t have those two ACC schools that close together.
It’s too early to even try to build a “perfect” scale that matches the market. Too many virtual scrimmages with lines that are strongly influenced by head coaching tendencies in blowouts and projected bench play. But, you can at least start thinking about a market scale … and how to solidify your own perceptions of how the teams stack up against each other.
At VSiN, we use a scale where “85” represents national championship caliber. This year, we may end up having Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, and possibly others as high as 90 because of skill position talent and overall depth. Usually, teams in the Power Five conferences scale out like this:
- 85 and up: national championship caliber
- 80-84: major bowl caliber
- 75-79: second tier bowl caliber
- 70-74: borderline for a bowl, depending on record
- 69 or less: not their year
Let’s look at point spreads in “competitive” games involving SEC and ACC teams this week. What’s the market telling us about how these schools stack up overall? We’ll post the lines in official rotation order (the order used by sports books around the globe).
▪ Vanderbilt is -3 at home vs. Middle Tennessee: a really bad sign for Vandy that the market sees them as dead even with MTSU on a neutral field! Commodores will be in the high 60’s at best.
▪ Auburn is -2 vs. Washington in Atlanta. Given poll respect, let’s assume these teams will rate in the 82-84 range on our scale.
▪ Ole Miss is +2.5 vs. Texas Tech in Houston. Rebels are seen as worse than a mid-level Big 12 team on a neutral field. Ole Miss will likely be in the high 60’s or low 70’s.
▪ Tennessee is +9.5 vs. West Virginia in Charlotte. Looks like a big step back for the Volunteer program. Low 70’s at best on our scale.
▪ North Carolina is +7 at California. Not bowl caliber in the current view of the market.
▪ Miami is -3.5 at LSU in Arlington on Sunday night on ABC. The AP poll has Miami #8 in the nation, LSU #25. That could mean Miami is as high as 83-84, on the fringes of the national championship discussion, leaving LSU as good enough for a major bowl. But, it’s also possible that the market is skeptical about both, meaning Miami’s around 80 and LSU in the high 70’s. We’ll need to see more samples.
▪ Florida State is -7.5 at home vs. Virginia Tech Monday night on ESPN. That’s about four points better on a neutral field. Florida State is probably low 80’s, Virginia Tech mid-to-high 70’s.
We might as well throw in Michigan and Notre Dame. Both teams probably within arm’s reach of 80, though it’s possible both are better.
Spend some time this weekend thinking about how YOU would rate the teams you’ll be watching on TV all season. This will give you a shot to out-think and out-perform the betting market.
This story was originally published August 31, 2018 at 10:39 AM.