Know what statistic categories to examine before betting on college games
College Football has arrived!
Though the bulk of college teams open their 2018 seasons on the first Saturday of September, there are a handful of games ready to kick off already.
From the main betting board Saturday:
- Hawaii at Colorado State (-14/57): 6:30 p.m. CT on CBS Sports Network
- Wyoming (-4/45.5) at New Mexico State: 9 p.m. CT on ESPN2
And, a couple of “extra” games in betting terminology involving hosts from board conferences:
- Duquesne as UMASS: 4:30 p.m. CT
- Prairie View at Rice: 6 p.m. CT
Check the policies of your favorite sports book to see if it posts point spreads on game day in those “extra” matchups. Some do, but at much lower limits than on the regular board.
College football handicappers prepare for a new campaign by reviewing what happened the prior season, then making adjustments to help predict what might be ahead. Points of focus…
- Last season’s skill sets
- Offseason personnel changes
- Offseason coaching changes
- Potential growth for returning starters
The four TV teams this week share some similarities. All four kept their head coaches … so, no reason to make any allowances for new decision-makers. But, all four have new starting quarterbacks.
So, that prevents handicappers from being too certain about offensive expectations. Though, it also opens windows of opportunity because oddsmakers can only guess about early season performance as well. Can you out-evaluate the guys making the lines?
To get a sense of last season’s skill sets, here are the 2017 national ranking on offense and defense for Saturday’s relevant quartet. This is a framework you can use in your personal handicapping process next week when the schedule is much more crowded. Informed bettors are more likely to be successful bettors!
2017 Total Yardage Rankings
- Wyoming: #126 on offense, #23 on defense
- New Mexico State: #28 on offense, #74 on defense
- Hawaii: #63 on offense, #115 on defense
- Colorado State: #11 on offense, #98 on defense
Amazing that Wyoming could rank so poorly on offense with current Buffalo Bill Josh Allen at quarterback. Cowboys run a conservative approach, and he’s an erratic thrower. Not an ideal match.
2018 Projected Returning Starters
- Wyoming: 9 on offense, 8 on defense
- New Mexico State: 6 on offense, 9 on defense
- Hawaii: 4 on offense, 5 on defense
- Colorado State: 4 on offense, 5 on defense
Those are from VSiN’s College Football Betting Guide. Different publications may vary their numbers from team to team. But those give you a sense of overall experience returning. Wyoming is VERY experienced. Hawaii’s almost starting from scratch, which is why it’s such a big underdog in Fort Collins. How is an inexperienced 2018 defense going to stop anyone when its 2017 defense couldn’t?
Oddsmakers and professional wagerers are clearly showing respect for Wyoming’s returning talent. That’s why the Cowboys are laying more than a field goal in Las Cruces. Their 2018 defense is loaded, explaining why such a low college Over/Under in the mid-40’s is on the board.
On these pages in coming weeks, VSiN will be evaluating Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Southern Miss, and assorted major college powers from an analytics and market perspective. Today gives you a taste of what to expect. If you’d like to dig even deeper in advance of next weekend’s action, we suggest the following stat categories for evaluating team skill sets…
- Yards-per-Play on offense and defense
- Third Down Conversion Rates on offense and defense
- Turnover Avoidance on offense
- Turnovers Forced on defense
Value bettors are looking to bet on teams who graded out well in those categories AND return a lot of key starters (particularly at the quarterback position). They’re also looking to bet AGAINST teams who graded out poorly and aren’t likely to have improved much in the offseason.
This is your first season betting legally in your home neighborhoods. Make the most of it.