Don’t look for the Saints to battle four quarters for a preseason win

Dress rehearsals have finally arrived for the 2018 NFL Preseason. This week’s action should feel like “real” pro football for at least a half in every game. Betting successfully will involve a combination of understanding coaching priorities, and evaluating talent matchups.

That could prove tricky if you’re trying to pick the point spread winner in the New Orleans Saints’ game in Los Angeles against the Chargers (Saturday at 7 p.m. CT, nationally televised by CBS). The Saints obviously have great talent. They’re on the short list of NFC Championship hopefuls after coming within one play of the conference championship game a year ago.

Will head coach Sean Payton play to win? Several years ago, that would have been an automatic YES. No coach in the NFL was better in dress rehearsal performances at the time.

Saints’ Dress Rehearsals 2009-13

2009: NO (-2.5) won at Oakland 45-7

• 2010: NO (-3) beat San Diego 36-21
  
  
• 2011: NO (-4.5) won at Oakland 40-20
  
  
• 2012: NO (-2.5) beat Houston 34-27
  
  
• 2013: NO (+3) won at Houston 31-23
  
  

That’s 5-0 straight up…5-0 against the point spread…and 5-0 to the Over because Over/Unders in those games ranged from 38-44 points. Payton’s teams covered by double digits in four of five games. All five went Over their totals by double digits.

If you’re more into pure football rather than the sports betting marketplace, still awesome! Saints scored from 31-45 points every time out. Three wins were on the road. Three were by double digits.

Unfortunately, if you love betting the Saints…that’s old news. Priorities seemed to shift in 2014, at least in terms of running up the score.

Saints’ Dress Rehearsals 2014-17

• 2014: NO (+1) won at Indianapolis 23-17
  
  
• 2015: NO (-3.5) lost to Arizona 27-13
  
  
• 2016: NO (-3) lost to Pittsburgh 27-14
  
  
• 2017: NO (-1.5) beat Houston 13-0
  
  

A 2-2 record straight up and against the spread. All four games went Under their market totals (Over/Unders ranging from 43.5 to 47.5). A betting record of 2-2 isn’t a disaster. You just lose the vigorish (the extra fee sports books charge you to place losing bets). But, you can see that the sense of urgency just wasn’t there.

Saints’ Scoring

• 2009-13: 45, 36, 40, 34, 31
  
  
• 2004-17: 23, 13, 14, 13
  
  

Given the veteran mindset of Coach Payton and key players, bettors should assume Saturday night’s exhibition against the Chargers is going to look more like the latter four than the prior five. An emphasis on timing and execution for the starters. Celebrate a win if it happens. Don’t worry if it doesn’t.

Early week indicators from professional wagerers have been in line with that perception. The short opening line of Chargers -2.5 hasn’t budged (yet). The opening total of 44.5 has been bet down a point to 43.5. The “market” makes the final score Chargers 23, Saints 20.5.

As you handicap the rest of the NFL dress rehearsal card, remember that Payton’s “career arc” provides a fairly good rule of thumb for anticipating coaching priorities. Head coaches who are relatively new to a location (or to being a head coach at this level) are more likely to battle through four quarters for a result. Long time veterans (particularly when paired with veteran quarterbacks) are not.