Don’t limit yourself to betting favorites in football. Underdogs are a better bet.
You’ve probably heard the myth that the job of an oddsmaker is to “split the action” evenly so that the house can’t lose on the game. Half the bets supposedly to on one side of the number … half go to the other side … and the sport book just pockets the vigorish.
If you’re new to sports betting, vigorish is the term for the extra “surcharge” bettors pay on losses. You risk 11 to win 10 on a standard bet (or anything in that ratio…55 to win 50…110 to win 100…330 to win 300…and so on). In an ideal world for sport books, bets would be divided evenly between both sides. No risk! Take money from losers to pay off the winners and throw profit into the vault.
In real world sports betting, this almost never happens! It’s impossible to “split the action” because of the following.
▪ The public bets almost exclusively favorites.
▪ Sharp betting volume on underdogs is dwarfed by public betting volume.
A typical recreational bettor looks at the schedule and thinks “which favorites am I going to bet today?” He feels much more comfortable investing in the superior team. And, it’s more fun to root for a quality team to win a blowout than it is to sweat out hopes that the “lesser” team can hang close or spring an upset.
Industry legends like Jimmy Vaccaro, Chris Andrews, and Vinny Magliulo of the South Point and Gaughan Gaming; Nick Bogdanovich of William Hill; and Jay Rood of MGM have described this phenomenon often on VSiN programming. Sports books receive one-sided action on favorites, and must root for underdogs to cash enough tickets to justify taking bets.
This is important to YOU because reality causes sports books to defend themselves against the public by inflating lines. If a line “should” be -4, maybe they put it at -4.5 or -5. If a line “should” be -8, it gets pushed to -9 … maybe even -10 if the favorite is a popular TV team.
If you are limiting yourself to betting on mostly favorites, you’re taking the worst of the number AND paying 11/10 vigorish. Tough to overcome that combination through a full season.
Bookmaking is a tricky balancing act for oddsmakers. They must defend themselves against the public’s extreme tendency to bet favorites. But, if they lift the line too high, then the public leaves the game alone and all the sharps grab those free points with the underdog. Oddsmakers like their chances if one-sided against the public at inflated prices. Oddsmakers DON’T like their chances when one-sided against professional wagerers at bad prices.
Let’s run through an example. Say the “right” number on a game is -13. The public is probably going to bet that favorite pretty hard because victory margins of 14 are common in football. Makes their bet feel safer. Any win of 14 or more is a victory for bettors. Oddsmakers know this, so they’re not going to open the game at -13. Sharps would completely pass the opener because -13 is the “right” number. No value. Opening at -13 would create extreme one-sided risk for sports books against the public.
But, if oddsmakers decide to open at -14.5 … that could lead to imbalance in the other direction. The public skips the game, preferring to find others at more appealing prices. Pro bettors come in hard because plus 14.5 is a steal when the “right” number is 13.
In this case, oddsmakers would likely open at -14 … then react based on action. Maybe two-thirds of the money comes in on the favorite from the public, and one third from sharps betting for value. That’s acceptable risk to a sports book because it’s getting the best of the number plus vigorish. If the split is more like 90/10 on the favorite, sports books would then lift the game to -14.5 to encourage sharp action that helps reduce exposure.
Keep this in mind as you place football bets this coming season. If you prefer laying points with favorites, your local sports book sees you coming! It’s not going to give you any breaks. Have the courage to pick more underdogs so those free points in the marketplace are helping you rather than hurting.