Shop around for the best point spread when getting ready to place your bets
Again this week, the New Orleans Saints are playing an exhibition game that sees the favorite laying close to a field goal. Just like almost every other matchup on the week two schedule!
Last Thursday, sharps bet the Saints in advance of kickoff in Jacksonville. New Orleans closed at 2-point underdog in what was ultimately a 24-20 road victory over the Jaguars. In this Friday’s game, the Saints have been hopping between -3 and -3.5 as a home favorite over the Arizona Cardinals.
Though a half point may not seem like much at first glance, it can be huge right around the key number of 3. A week ago, we discussed how to read market preferences close to that key number. Today, some of the math that guides those preferences.
Many new bettors will like a football favorite at -3. If the line moves to -3.5, that doesn’t change their mind because they were thinking their choice was going to win the game by 4 points or more anyway. They say “what’s a half point when my team is going to win easily?”
Professional bettors don’t fall into that trap.
Before it’s played, any game is a range of possibilities. A blowout is possible. An upset is possible. A game decided by a last-second field goal is possible. It’s like a number line scale with potential final margins landing all across the spectrum. Even if a bettor’s hunch about a team’s dominance is correct, it might lose because of a key injury, a bad officiating call, or some fluky special teams return. And, no bettor has perfect reads.
In this dynamic world of probabilities, it’s actually possible for a half-point to completely flip “the right side” in a game.
Imagine an upcoming contest between two competitive teams. Informed models see the game landing on “favorite by 3” exactly 12% of the time. Those models have the favorite winning by 4 points or more 47% of the time, and the game landing on the underdog’s side of the 3 (upset win or loss of 1-2 points) 41% of the time.
▪ At -3, the FAVORITE is the right side with an edge of 47% to 41%. The 12% of games that land exactly on the 3 create a “push,” which is a tie bet that everyone is refunded. Favorites win the non-pushes 53.4% of the time.
▪ At -3.5, the UNDERDOG is the right side because owning the extra 12% that comes with that key number pushes its advantage to 53% (41% plus 12%) to 47%.
The break-even for a sports bet is 52.4% because you normally have to risk $11 for every $10 you want to win (that 11/10 ratio is referred to as “vigorish”). BOTH of those clear the hurdle. Favorite -3 and Underdog +3.5 both cash at least 53% of the time.
In the real world, any individual contest has its own “scatter-gram” of possibilities. But that example expresses the essence of line value.
Trusting any projection in a preseason game is dicey because heavy playing time from backups creates so many variables. You should at least respect the power of percentages. If you’re thinking of betting the Saints this week…try to find a sports book offering them at -3. If you think New Orleans will bring less intensity off a win in advance of its “dress rehearsal” next week, try to get at least +3.5 with your Cardinals bet.
Over a full season of football bets…or a lifetime of football bets…respecting the percentages and shopping for the best available point spread will be what separates many winners from losers. Keep that in mind as you handicap all of this week’s games. Don’t lose sight of it during the regular season when you’ll be tempted to place even bigger bets in high profile contests.
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This story was originally published August 16, 2018 at 12:00 AM.