Here are some tips for improving your chances of being on the winning side of sports bets

While most media coverage about sports betting has focused on point spreads, Over/Under bets are also very popular propositions. In these, sports books posts a target for the total number of points to be scored in a game. You have the option of betting that the scoring sum will go Over or Under that total.

Note that overtimes count (or extra innings in baseball). Over/Unders are based on the completed final score. Sometimes you might get lucky and win an Over bet that would have lost in regulation. On the down side, you may lose an Under bet that would have been a winner.

What are the best strategies for betting Over/Unders? Generally speaking…

▪ You want to bet OVERS when both teams are likely to score often, and drive each other in a competitive game to score even MORE.

▪ You want to bet UNDERS when both teams are likely to struggle offensively, or if one team is likely to build a lead and sit on it.

A dream scenario for Over bettors is any shootout where teams keep forging in-game ties, because more points HAVE to be scored. Under bettors love defensive struggles, or watching teams with a big scoreboard edge grind clock.

Many NFL bettors instinctively want to bet Overs in New Orleans Saints’ games because Drew Brees leads such a productive offense. Though it’s not exactly a big secret that the Saints can score, Overs have offered value in recent regular seasons.

Saints’ Over/Unders

• 2014: 10-6 to the Over
  
  
• 2015: 9-6-1 to the Over
  
  
• 2016: 9-7 to the Over
  
  
• 2017: 9-7 to the Over
  
  

That’s 37-26-1 for Overs, which is a 59% success rate throwing out the tie. You only have to hit 52.4% to break even against 11/10 betting vigorish (risking $11 to win $10, or anything in that ratio). (Be aware that the Saints can be more cautious in preseason games…all four exhibitions in 2017 stayed Under the market total).

Last season, both Mississippi schools played to expected form for this proposition as well.

▪ Mississippi State ranked #No. 10 in the nation in total defense, and saw totals go 4-9 to the Under counting its bowl game.

▪ Ole Miss ranked No. 116 in the nation in total defense, and saw its totals go 9-3 to the Over (including seven straight Overs in the middle of the season).

It’s not always that easy. But your knowledge of the game and some common sense could put you in position to win more than just team side bets this coming season.

Keys to remember when betting football totals…

▪ Bad weather usually helps Unders. You’ll often hear announcers suggest otherwise, particularly former coaches and players. But studies have made it very clear that precipitation and wind reduce scoring over the long haul. Long time market followers will tell you that you can predict the weather on weekends just by studying which totals are falling because of sharp action. This doesn’t mean that a bad weather game is a “lock” to stay Under. We can all remember some bad weather games that ended up being high scoring. Percentages favor the Under over a large sampling of weather-affected games. Sharps play the percentages.

▪ Poor footing also helps Unders. Grass surfaces at some college football sites can get really chewed up late in a season. You’ll also come across some bowl games where temporary sod won’t even stay in place. Don’t ask for high-scoring games on sloppy or loose surfaces.

▪ The general public prefers betting Overs because it’s more fun to root for points than it is to root for nothing to happen. Sports books are aware of this, and often shade their posted Over/Unders a half-point or more against expected action. If you find that your own tendencies are toward liking a lot more Overs than Unders, be careful trying to clear these higher hurdles.

This story was originally published August 11, 2018 at 8:00 AM.