Placing NFL sports bets on the Coast? Don’t bet on a Saints win in the preseason
With the Saints’ preseason opener Thursday on the road against Jacksonville, the question is: Should you consider betting them in any summer tune-ups?
Recent evidence suggests that’s likely to be a money-losing strategy. Teams with established head coaches and quarterbacks often coast through the preseason, focusing more on timing and rhythm rather than getting results. Sean Payton has been the Saints’ head coach since 2006. Drew Brees has been the starting quarterback since the same season. Neither cares about winning games in August.
Strong evidence for that from the past three exhibition campaigns.
2015 Preseason
New Orleans (+2.5) lost at Baltimore 30-27
New Orleans (-2.5) lost to New England 26-24
New Orleans (-3.5) lost to Houston 27-13
New Orleans (+2) lost at Green Bay 38-10
That’s a record of 0-4 both straight up and against the point spread. Even the traditional “dress rehearsal” spot in the third week was dismal. New Orleans missed the market by 17.5 and 26 points in the final two outings … clearly focused on being ready for the regular season at the expense of preseason performance.
2016 Preseason
New Orleans (+3) lost at New England 34-22
New Orleans (pick-em) lost at Houston 16-9
New Orleans (-3) lost to Pittsburgh 27-14
New Orleans (-4.5) lost to Baltimore 23-14
Once again, 0-4 straight up and ATS. That’s nothing but losses for two straight preseasons. The “dress rehearsal” was a bust again. New Orleans missed the market by 16 and 13.5 points in the final two outings.
2017
New Orleans (+3) lost at Cleveland 20-14
New Orleans (+4) won at the LA Chargers 13-7
New Orleans (-1.5) beat Houston 13-0
New Orleans (-3) lost to Baltimore 14-13
Finally, a pair of wins and point-spread covers. But even those weren’t particularly impressive in terms of offense. The Saints scored just 13 points in each of their two success stories. That said, a much-improved August defense did foreshadow regular season improvement on that side of the ball.
Looks like week three WAS a dress rehearsal for the defense. A command performance in a shutout of Houston.
Bettors blindly backing the Saints went 2-10 against the point spread the past three preseasons. No reason for veteran leadership to suddenly change how it prioritizes August. This is not a team that’s going to fight to win your bets this month. The Saints will definitely be fighting to win your bets once the regular season begins.
It’s worth noting that seven of the last eight preseason games have gone Under the posted total. We know the offense saves its best stuff for the regular season. If the defense is going to continue to be a point of emphasis within a championship mindset, that could suggest more low scoring games on the 2018 slate.
Thursday: New Orleans at Jacksonville
Friday August 17: Arizona at New Orleans
Saturday August 25: New Orleans at the LA Chargers
Thursday August 30: LA Rams at New Orleans
MGM sports books have already posted an early line of Jacksonville -3, with an Over/Under of 35 in the opener. Home field advantage is usually worth only 1.5 to two points in exhibition action, rather than a more standard three in the regular season. That tells you oddsmakers are aware that New Orleans isn’t an August juggernaut. Bettors will have to evaluate Jacksonville’s priorities in the game before making a final call.
Offshore sites are more commonly showing 34.5 for the Over/Under. That could be a hint at line movement direction in the coming days.
Results from the last three exhibition slates are suggesting:
▪ A lack of fire in the opener (0-3 ATS)
▪ A lack of interest in the finale (0-3 ATS)
▪ A more recent tendency toward Unders (7-1 the past two preseasons)
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