How oddsmakers are seeing the US-Netherlands World Cup finale

In what’s shaping up as a dream finale for the July Fourth weekend, the Stars and Stripes will try to win the 2019 World Cup Sunday morning against the Netherlands (FOX, 10 a.m., don’t forget the early kickoff!)

The United States women’s national team will likely close near a one-goal favorite over the Dutch. That’s a larger goal spread than in the last two rounds vs. France and England, just a shade below market expectations in prior games against Spain and Sweden.

Though the talented and technically sound Orange Lionesses aren’t power-rated as highly as France or England, they’re definitely capable of taking this game to the wire.

Anticipating weekend market activity will be tricky. Sportsbooks in the U.S. will be flooded with patriotic bets. How big of an adjustment will they make to global lines to limit exposure?

It’s expected that global “three-way” lines will close in the vicinity of USA -240 (risk $240 to win $100 that the U.S. will win the game in regulation), a draw +320 (risk $100 to win $320 that regulation ends in a tie, forcing extra time), and the Netherlands +600 (risk $100 to win $600 that the Dutch win in regulation).

Equivalent win percentages in regulation at those prices are the U.S. 71%, a draw 24%, and the Netherlands 9%. Sportsbooks build universes larger than 100% to create a house edge. Your favorite spot will likely adjust its prices on the interests of its clientele.

For totals bettors, the Over/Under in regulation will likely settle at 2.5 goals. The Under would be a slight favorite at that price. Sportsbooks offering a solid two would make the Over a steep favorite.

The U.S. is a prohibitive favorite to ultimately lift the cup (either in regulation, or in extra time/penalty kicks of needed). Odds immediately after the matchup locked in showed the U.S. at -500 (83% to claim the championship), the Netherlands +350 (22%). Will casual bettors be willing to risk $50 (or possibly more) to win $10?

Enjoy the game…and remember that early start time!

Other Notes

▪ It’s the final weekend of Major League Baseball before the All-Star Break. TV attractions for bettors include Texas at Minnesota (Saturday, MLB Network, 1 p.m.), the Chicago Cubs at the Chicago White Sox (Saturday, FOX, 6 p.m.), Colorado at Arizona (Saturday, FS1, 9:10 p.m.), and the New York Yankees at Tampa Bay (Sunday, TBS, 12:10 p.m.). There is no ESPN Sunday night game this week.

▪ Time for a brief refresher course on how to make your own odds. Unfortunately, the recent blizzard of coverage blanketing pro basketball’s free agency free-for-all has been full of bad numbers. That includes journalists new to sports betting who wanted to provide their assessment of odds that a player will sign with a particular team….and Vegas sports books releasing “no action” assessments for public relations purposes.

Here’s a quick example of bad numbers. Earlier this week, a sports betting media source suggested the following odds for Kawhi Leonard landing at four various teams: Los Angeles Lakers 2/3 (-150), Toronto 1/1 (even money), LA Clippers 3/1 (+300), and New York 8/1 (+800).

Nothing wrong with the order. The issue is…the Lakers were seen as winning the Kawhi sweepstakes 60% of the time. Toronto had a good chance too, at 50%. And, there’s the problem right there!

We’re already at 110% in possibilities when there was only a 100% certainty that Leonard would sign somewhere. Then, the Clippers were at 25%, the Knicks 11%. The chances of the four teams add up to 146%.

This elementary school math matters. How are you going to make smart bets at bad futures price if your math is even worse?

The easiest base for making your own odds is to start with percentages. You instinctively know that the elements should add up to 100%. Nobody would say “I think there’s a 60% chance Kawhi signs with the Lakers, and a 50% chance he signs with the Raptors.” (Well, we hope not, anyway).

When you’re satisfied with your percentage assessments…and they add up to exactly 100%...turn those into fractions. Something with a 50/50 chance of happening would be even money (1/1), something with only a 25% chance would be 3/1 (one chance out of four). A longer shot at only 10% would be 9/1 (one out of 10).

We talked earlier about how sports books build universes larger than 100% to create a house edge. You’re not a sports book. You’re on the other side of the counter. You need to work with 100% universes to defend your bets against that house edge.

This story was originally published July 5, 2019 at 1:49 PM.