Brian Allee-Walsh

The injuries have piled up at an inopportune time for the Saints

New Orleans running back Alvin Kamara hurdles 49ers free safety Jimmie Ward.
New Orleans running back Alvin Kamara hurdles 49ers free safety Jimmie Ward. AP

The bright lights of Monday Night Football on ESPN can’t come soon enough for the three-time defending NFC South-champion New Orleans Saints, who seem extremely comfortable playing on a national stage.

One assumes they have moved on from last Sunday’s stunning 48-46 last-second loss to the San Francisco 49ers inside the Mercedes-Benz Superdome.

Let me put it a different way. The Black and Gold (10-3) better have learned from their mistakes and buried the past or they could find themselves on the wrong end of the final score Monday night against the Indianapolis Colts (6-7) at the Superdome (7:15 p.m.).

Time will tell.

The Saints will be without two stellar defensive players — tackle Sheldon Rankins (ankle) and end Marcus Davenport (foot). Each was placed on season-ending injured reserve, prompting the mid-week signings of defensive linemen Noah Spence and T.Y. McGill.

The defense also might be without four-time Pro Bowl end Cameron Jordan (abdomen), linebackers Kiko Alonso (quad) and A.J. Klein (knee), safety Vonn Bell (knee) and cornerback Patrick Robinson (calf). On offense, left guard Andrus Peat (forearm) is out. Left tackle Terron Armstead (ankle), tight end Jared Cook (concussion), center/guard Will Clapp (elbow) and fullback Zach Line (knee) are questionable.

Injuries are mounting at an inopportune time.

The Colts, meanwhile, are a prohibitive road underdog (+9) in most sports betting houses, much like the Atlanta Falcons were in Week 10 when they entered as 14-point road ‘dogs and inexplicably won by 17 points.

Stuff happens.

When the NFL schedule makers put this matchup together in the spring, I’m reasonably certain they envisioned a shootout deep into the night between Saints quarterback Drew Brees and Colts quarterback Andrew Luck.

Luck’s unexpected retirement in late August changed the narrative and thrust talented but unproven backup Jacoby Brissett under center.

So, here we are in Week 15.

It is a game both teams must have ... for different reasons. The Saints are guaranteed no less than a home wildcard game with a puncher’s chance to win homefield advantage in the NFC throughout the playoffs.

The Colts trail both the Houston Texans (8-5) and Tennessee Titans (8-5) in the AFC South and probably need to run the table to remain in playoff contention.

Despite the injuries on defense, I suspect the Saints will answer the bell Monday night, though the betting analytics suggest bettors should proceed with caution. Consider:

In their last 20 prime-time games played at home, the Saints are 16-4 straight up and 17-3 against the spread (ATS).

But they have struggled ATS at home recently, dropping their last three games at the Superdome. In two of those three games they were giving more than a touchdown to their opponent, and they’ve only covered one game all season with a spread greater than 7 ½ points.

The Saints are 1-4 against the spread in their past five December games, including the 49ers game in which they were favored by 2 1/2 points.

Oddly enough, the Saints have covered the spread in 17 consecutive October games dating to Week 5 of the 2016 season. In their past 22 games played in October, they are 21-1 both straight up and against the spread.

As for the Colts, they’ve acquitted themselves well against NFC teams, going 12-4 against the spread In their past 16 games. The Colts are also 3-0 against the spread in their past three prime-time games (2-1 straight-up).

Go figure.

The bottom line is the Saints have won nine consecutive games against AFC teams, including victories earlier this season against the Texans (30-28) in Week 1 and at Jacksonville (13-6) in Week 6.

I expect that streak will reach 10 Monday night.

Brian Allee-Walsh, a longtime Saints reporter based in New Orleans, can be reached at sports@sunherald.com.
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