Brian Allee-Walsh

Look for the playoff-minded Saints to go above and beyond projected over/under

New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees is one reason why the Saints are being talked about in terms of a Super Bowl run.
New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees is one reason why the Saints are being talked about in terms of a Super Bowl run. Associated Press

9.5

Not 9, not 10.

9.5

That seems to be a common landing place for national oddsmakers when determining over/under in total wins for the New Orleans Saints this season.

And, believe me, that .5 is huge when it comes to making a sports wager, the difference in winning and losing.

I am not going to waver from my original prediction made months ago in the Sun-Herald. The Black and Gold will finish with double-digit wins, defend their divisional title and reach the NFC Final Four, just as they did last season before suffering an improbable walkoff road loss at Minnesota in the divisional round.

Suffice to say no one saw that epic ending coming (the 61-yard catch-and-run collaboration between Vikings quarterback Case Keenum and wide receiver Stefon Diggs as time expired), not even the best bookies and oddsmakers in our land.

That said, the Saints appear to be every bit as good as last season, if not better; a year older, wiser and probably playing with a sizable chip on its collective shoulder.

Hence, the pre-training camp motivational slogan from coach Sean Payton: “Prove them right!”

According to Bovada sports book, four NFC teams have a higher over/under than the Saints: defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia at 10.5 and Green Bay, the LA Rams and Minnesota each at 10. In other words, Bovada is projecting the Eagles (East), Rams (West) and Saints (south) to win their divisions and the North will be a tossup between the Packers and Vikings.

We shall see.I like the Saints to make a bold bid to win Super Bowl LIII because of the Triplets — quarterback Drew Brees, versatile running back Alvin Kamara and wide receiver Michael Thomas — a top 5 offensive line, a vastly improved young, energetic defense led by Pro Bowl end Cam Jordan and second-year shutdown cornerback Marshon Lattimore and proven punter Thomas Morstead and kicker Will Lutz.

I like them to win no less than six of eight home games inside the Mercedes-Benz Superdome — Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Washington, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, Carolina. The sledding will be tougher against the Rams and Eagles.

Going 5-3 on the road is realistic with wins coming against the NY Giants, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Dallas and Tampa Bay. Atlanta, Minnesota and Carolina on the road are potential speed bumps on the road.

So that gets me to 11 wins, eclipsing the 9.5 over/under.

I rest my case.

Brian Allie-Walsh, a longtime Saints reporter based in New Orleans, can be reached at sports@sunherald.com.

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