Where oddsmakers see the Saints in the Super Bowl chase after Drew Brees’ return
When Drew Brees announced last week that he would be returning for the 2020 NFL season, sports books across the globe locked in the New Orleans Saints as one of the favorites to win the NFC and the 2021 Super Bowl.
Here are consensus global odds for both categories…
▪ Odds to win the NFC: San Francisco 9/2, New Orleans 6/1, Philadelphia 8/1, Green Bay 17/2, Dallas 17/2, Seattle 10/1, Minnesota 10/1, Los Angeles Rams 11/1.
That’s a deep field of contenders. Not much margin for error if Brees suffers an injury, or if any of the teams behind them take a big leap forward. But, any team can suffer injuries. New Orleans is clearly on the short list of Super Bowl hopefuls. What are their odds to win the big game?
▪ Odds to win the Super Bowl: Kansas City 6/1, Baltimore 8/1, San Francisco 10/1, New Orleans 12/1, New England 14/1 (pending the status of Tom Brady), Philadelphia 17/1, Green Bay 18/1, Dallas 18/1, Seattle 20/1, Minnesota 20/1, Pittsburgh 22/1, Los Angeles Rams 22/1, Tennessee 25/1.
A lot of teams are in the 4% to 10% probability range in a league that’s loaded with skill-position talent. Kansas City and Baltimore are slightly better than that, led by young quarterbacks with growth potential that gives them a leg up on the field. Brees is one of many veteran quarterbacks across the NFL whose window of opportunity is closing.
(Note…if Tom Brady is signed by an unlisted entry, his new team will likely jump to 25/1 or better if they’re not already there.)
▪ Regular Season win totals aren’t available everywhere, but early birds are projecting about 10 victories in the 2020 season for the Saints (playoffs aren’t counted in these props). Few teams will close higher than that. Markets are conservative with these because of injury potential, and the reality that upsets happen in a league featuring parity.
Remember that odds will vary at your local sports books, particularly those that are forced to defend against one-sided Saints interest to avoid undue risk.
VSiN will continue to monitor offseason developments for the Saints from a market perspective, particularly as we get closer to the NFL draft set for Las Vegas April 23-25.
XFL Notes
▪ Another win last week for former Ole Miss quarterback Jordan Ta’amu, who led the St. Louis BattleHawks to a 29-9 rout of the New York Guardians as a 10-point favorite. The high pointspread showed a lot of respect for Ta’amu. Then he helped his team double it!
Bettors should note, though, that St. Louis didn’t play as well as the final score suggested. Scoring margin was padded by a kickoff return touchdown (those look like they’ll be rare in the XFL this season), and a relatively cheap 17-yard touchdown drive.
The BattleHawks were actually outgained 307-273 on 5.6 to 4.8 yards-per-play. But, they were much more efficient on third downs, converting 50% (7 of 14) to New York’s 20% (2/10).
A lot to like about the 2-1 start (3-0 against the spread). But, this isn’t a team likely to win blowouts on command without help from cheap points.
Ta’amu and his teammates take the field again Saturday, hosting Seattle (FOX, 4 p.m.). The Dragons are 1-2 straight up and ATS this season, with their only win coming over the disappointing Tampa Bay Vipers.
▪ Can Ta’amu lead his team to the league championship? St. Louis has risen to second on the futures board thanks to poor results for other projected contenders.
Here are updated odds to win the XFL championship from Caesar’s Casino and Sportsbook: Houston 7/4, St. Louis 5/2, D.C. 7/2, Dallas 4/1, Los Angeles 10/1, Seattle 15/1, New York 18/1, Tampa Bay 50/1.
Based on those outlooks, the “game of the week” will be Houston at Dallas this Sunday afternoon (FS1, 3 p.m.). Also on the schedule…Los Angeles at New York Saturday (ABC 1 p.m.), and D.C. at Tampa Bay Sunday (ESPN2, 6 p.m.)
VSiN returns Friday for college basketball analysis, including the Southeastern Conference’s outlook for the upcoming NCAA Tournament. Even market-respected computers can’t agree…entering the week, Jeff Sagarin of USA Today had league-leading Kentucky ranked No. 6 in the nation, while Ken Pomeroy of kenpom.com had the Wildcats way down at No. 26! We’ll have you ready in case the Big Dance turns into a frantic ballroom blitz!
This story was originally published February 26, 2020 at 10:25 AM with the headline "Where oddsmakers see the Saints in the Super Bowl chase after Drew Brees’ return."
