These three key stats explain why the Saints made an early playoff exit
VSiN hadn’t anticipated writing our wrap-up of the New Orleans Saints’ season so soon. But, Drew Brees and company suffered a surprisingly early exit from the NFL playoffs with a 26-20 overtime loss to the Minnesota Vikings.
As we discussed last week, betting markets had priced the Saints as second-best on the NFC futures board behind San Francisco. That meant they were projected to get past the Vikings as seven-point favorites, then visit Green Bay as a slight road favorite in the divisional round. Instead, they’ll be watching that round on TV like the rest of us!
Here are the key indicator stats that best explain Minnesota’s upset.
▪ Third Down Conversions: Minnesota moved the ball easily, cashing 10 of 18 third down tries for a 56% success rate. Kirk Cousins wasn’t supposed to beat Drew Brees at that in a high-pressure game! The Saints could only manage four of 11 for 36%.
▪ Red Zone Touchdowns: Minnesota made four trips into the red zone, scoring three touchdowns (75%). New Orleans only made two forays that far, scoring one TD (50%). Those percentages are much more a strike against the Saints’ defense than their offense.
▪ Turnovers: Minnesota only lost the ball once, New Orleans twice. The final miscue for the Saints was a big one…a fumble from Drew Brees on first and 10 from the Vikings 20-yard line with 4:18 to go in the game. New Orleans seemed assured of at least a field goal, and had a great chance to score the go-ahead touchdown. The Saints did rebound to force overtime. Without the fumble, there probably wouldn’t have been an overtime.
Those are categories we’ve discussed often since this special sports betting feature began. Offenses need to protect and move the ball, then finish their drives with touchdowns. Defenses aim to disrupt. Handicappers should focus on those skill sets when trying to pick winners. But, even high quality teams can surprise you with disappointing performances.
Despite Sunday’s loss, the Saints were a good betting investment for the season. They finished 11-6 against the spread, a 65% success rate.
Minnesota advanced to face San Francisco Saturday, where the Vikings will likely close as underdogs of +6 to +7 depending on late-week betting. We’ll discuss the full divisional round in deeper depth in our Saturday report.
▪ Southern Miss’s football season also came to an end since the last time we were together. The Golden Eagles (+7) jumped to an early 13-0 lead before falling apart in a 30-13 loss to Tulane in the Armed Forces Bowl.
Tulane only won total yardage 379-359, but played the much cleaner game. Southern Miss lost the turnover category 2-0, and had two fourth down failures that were virtual turnovers. The Golden Eagles also committed 10 penalties for 82 yards, compared to six and 50 for the Green Wave. Tulane’s victory margin was inflated by a two-yard TD drive after an interception return.
Southern ended the season 7-6 straight up, 6-7 against the spread, with nine of 13 games staying Under the market-projected scoring total.
▪ Also making football headlines (busy week!), Mississippi State fired Joe Moorhead after the Bulldogs’ disappointing 38-24 loss to Louisville in the Music City Bowl. They were outscored 38-7 from the middle of the second quarter to late in the fourth quarter before tacking on a last-second touchdown.
Mississippi State lost total yardage 510-366 and third down conversions 55% to 36% to an opponent with one of the worst defenses of any bowl qualifier.
We’ve talked in the past about how poor pointspread performance can be a leading indicator for a coaching change. Teams aren’t playing to cover spreads. But, pointspreads are a great reflection of expectations. Coaches who aren’t covering spreads are performing below expectations.
Moorhead’s men finished 3-6 ATS their last nine outings. One of the covers was against small college Abilene Christian. One was against Arkansas, the worst team in SEC standings. The other needed a helpful unsportsmanlike penalty from archrival Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl.
He was hired as an “offensive guru.” But, the Bulldogs finished the season ranked only No. 67 nationally in total yardage, then gained about 100 yards less than Louisville usually allows in their bowl.
▪ Only one college football game left in the season, Monday’s national championship featuring LSU of the Southeastern Conference and Clemson of the Atlantic Coast Conference. We’ll go in further depth Saturday. A check on early betting shows the line settling at LSU -5.5 with an Over/Under of 69.5.
Sharps (professional wagerers) who liked LSU jumped in at lower prices. Circa Sports in Las Vegas had posted LSU -3 over the winner of Clemson/Ohio State before that second semifinal had ended. Dog lovers have taken +6 in the limited time it was available.
We’ll have to see how the public bets over the weekend. There could be a “tug-of-war” between public money on LSU -5.5 and sharps on Clemson +6. Though, if recreational bettors decide defending champ Clemson offers value at such a high price, the number will drop to five (or less).
The public usually bets Overs in big TV games because it’s more fun to root for points than defense. But, this high mark may discourage that approach. Sharps have been taking Under 70 whenever its available, assuming that’s a likely apex.
VSiN returns Saturday to talk more football, and get caught up with college hoops.