Here’s where the Saints stand in the Super Bowl chase according to Vegas
Though the New Orleans Saints were hoping to enjoy a bye through Wildcard Weekend in the NFL playoffs, they’re still being treated like a serious Super Bowl threat in global betting markets as a No. 3 seed in the NFC.
Here’s a look at odds for all remaining playoff teams according to a composite of global sports books…
Ravens 9/4, 49ers 4/1, Chiefs 9/2, Saints 6/1, Packers 8/1, Patriots 12/1, Seahawks 25/1, Eagles 33/1, Texans 33/1, Bills 50/1, Titans 50/1.
New Orleans ranks second of NFC teams, behind only San Francisco. That’s despite the fact that the Saints have to host Minnesota this Sunday (FOX, 12:15 p.m.), and then play on the road at rested Green Bay. This tells us that New Orleans would likely be a road favorite next week at Lambeau Field if it does beat Minnesota. For now, the futures market is assuming New Orleans will visit San Francisco for the conference crown later this month.
The Saints will likely close as at least 7.5 or 8 point favorites over the Vikings. It’s unlikely to the line would drop to the key number of seven. Recreational bettors love taking home favorites with explosive offenses in the playoffs. Sports books don’t want to give them a friendly line. Sharps have already taken the Vikings +8 when its available.
There are no sure things in the NFL playoffs, as Saints’ fans are painfully aware. But, key indicator stats do smile on the team in this particular matchup.
▪ Better on Offense: The Saints ranked No. 9 this season in total offense (yards gained per game) despite Drew Brees missing significant time with an injury. Minnesota only ranked No. 16, and stumbled badly in a huge recent tester vs. Green Bay.
▪ Better on Defense: The Saints ranked No. 11 in yards allowed per game, better than the Vikings at No. 14. This Saints’ stop unit deserves more credit than it’s been getting from the national media.
▪ Tougher Schedule: According to Jeff Sagarin’s market-respected rankings at USA Today, the Saints played the No. 13 ranked schedule. Minnesota was down at No. 24. That magnifies the importance of the stat rankings, because the Saints earned their edges against a more demanding slate. It also means they’re more battle-tested.
▪ Turnover Differential: The Saints were second in the NFL at +15, trailing only the super-safe approach of the New England Patriots. Minnesota had a great year too, ranking fifth at +11.
You can see why the line is larger than a touchdown. New Orleans enjoys the edges that matter most. Do those advantages suggest a blowout? That’s what Saints backers will have to decide. It’s harder to win big without a significant turnover edge. Minnesota is more likely to punt and defend than give away cheap points with turnovers.
A look at the rest of Wildcard Weekend from a market perspective…
▪ Buffalo at Houston (Saturday, ESPN and ABC, 3:30 p.m.): Sharps have been betting Buffalo whenever +3 has been available this week. An opener of Houston -3 is down to 2.5. Market observers are wondering if the public will lay the short number between now and kickoff. Sharps respect defensive dogs in big games. Buffalo ranked #3 in total defense in the NFL this season, Houston a disappointing #28 (though the return of J.J. Watts should help).
▪ Tennessee at New England (Saturday, CBS, 7:15 p.m.): Here an opener of New England -5.5 was initially bet down to five. It’s telling that sharps didn’t wait to see if the public would drive the line up to six. New England’s been in very shaky form of late. The Titans have been rejuvenated under new starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill. We may see a further line drop by kickoff if the public has given up on Tom Brady’s offense.
▪ Seattle at Philadelphia (Sunday, NBC, 3:40 p.m.): The visiting Seahawks received the bulk of early betting interest. An opener of Seattle -1 rose to -1.5 with one-sided exposure for sports books. Nobody was nibbling on Philadelphia yet. It might take the key number of three to bring in dog lovers.
You longtime readers will have noticed that three of the four pointspreads have a chance to close inside the “basic strategy” teaser window. Teaser are bets where you get to move the line six points in your favor on multiple games…but then you have to win all your choices to cash the ticket.
Sharps put percentages in their favor by focusing on games that cross both key numbers of three and the seven in one fell swoop. That means favorites of -7.5 to -8.5 coming down to -1.5 to -2.5 or underdogs of +1.5 to +2.5 rising up to +7.5 to +8.5. Over Wildcard Weekend, sharp teaser players will be focusing on combinations of Buffalo +8.5, New Orleans -1.5, and Philadelphia +7.5.