Here’s a look at how oddsmakers see the SEC squads headed into bowl games
By now, your head is probably spinning from studying all the possible playoff scenarios heading into Week 17 of the NFL regular season.
You know that the New Orleans Saints need to win as 13-point favorites at Carolina Sunday (FOX, noon) to have a shot at a No. 1 or No. 2 seed. But, they also need help from Detroit (getting almost as many points at home vs. Green Bay), and Seattle (getting three points at home vs. San Francisco) if they want to avoid getting a No. 3 seed that forces them to host wildcard Minnesota next week.
New Orleans would have controlled its own destiny if it had survived San Francisco in the Superdome back in Week 14, or not been caught napping vs. Atlanta after a bye week back in Week 10.
But, you can’t ask a team to play perfectly every time. A 12-3 record is nothing to be ashamed of, particularly when it’s coupled with a 10-5 record against the spread. A lot was expected of the Saints. They’ve managed to outperform high expectations.
Unfortunately, so have other top NFC threats! Green Bay is also 12-3 straight up, 10-5 ATS. San Francisco is 12-3 straight up, 8-6-1 vs. market expectations. Seattle has a chance to finish 12-4 with an upset of the 49ers. That would yield an 8-7-1 ATS record for the season.
Picking the eventual Super Bowl entry from the NFC has become a “name out of the hat” challenge. That survivor would likely be a short underdog to the Baltimore Ravens at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, but a virtual pick-em or slight favorite over the New England Patriots or Kansas City Chiefs.
The respected Westgate in Las Vegas took overall team skill sets and this week’s percentages into consideration when posting their odds to win the Super Bowl. Current numbers show: Baltimore 9/4, San Francisco 9/2, New Orleans 5/1, New England 8/1, Kansas City 8/1, Green Bay 10/1, Seattle 14/1.
VSiN looks forward to covering the Saints playoff gauntlet from a market perspective on these pages. For, now, let’s get caught up on the latest lines involving SEC teams in upcoming bowls.
▪ Earlier this week, we discussed LSU’s national semifinal against Oklahoma in Saturday’s Chick-Fil-A Bowl (ESPN, 3 p.m.). Still looks like that fireworks show will close around LSU -13.5 pending any more personnel developments. The winner of LSU/OU will play the winner of the Fiesta Bowl matching Clemson and Ohio State (ESPN, 7 p.m.). Clemson has been holding steady at -2 through Christmas.
▪ Mississippi State will likely close at -4 over Louisville Monday in the Music City Bowl (ESPN, 3 p.m.). Smart money is hitting the Cards at +4.5 whenever that becomes available. The Bulldogs’ offense hopes to put up big numbers on a soft underdog that ranked No. 107 in total defense (yards allowed per game) entering the bowls.
▪ Florida flip-flopped between -14 and -14.5 through Christmas week in its Monday night matchup with Virginia in the Orange Bowl (ESPN, 7 p.m.). Sharps do like the dog whenever the hook is added. Recreational bettors like to lay points with favorites in big TV games. Could be a “tug-of-war” until kickoff.
▪ Kentucky has been getting support at +3 vs. Virginia Tech in Tuesday’s Belk Bowl (ESPN, 11 a.m.). But, stores dropping to 2.5 see money come in on the favorite. Probably another “tug-of-war” at that key number, though with a much lower handle in a low-publicity game.
▪ Auburn hasn’t sustained betting support at any line above -7 in Wednesday’s Outback Bowl (New Year’s Day) vs. Minnesota (ESPN, noon). The Golden Gophers get the money at +7.5 or more.
▪ Alabama has been getting the bulk of betting interest at -7 over Michigan in the simultaneous Citrus Bowl (ABC, noon). Oddsmakers are hesitant to go to 7.5 because that would invite “defensive dog” money on the Wolverines against ‘Bama’s turnover-prone quarterback Mac Jones. Sports books will have to decide how they want to manage exposure in what will be a very popular betting attraction.
▪ Georgia has been jumping between -6 and -6.5 vs. Baylor in the Sugar Bowl New Year’s night (ESPN, 7:45 p.m.). This line probably won’t get to seven because sharps are hitting Baylor at +6.5. Though, if the SEC shines in earlier action, the public may re-invest with afternoon profits. That would lift the “tug-of-war” from six and 6.5 to 6.5 and seven.
Next week, we’ll talk more about Tennessee’s Gator Bowl battle with Indiana on January 2, and the Southern Miss/Tulane tussle in the Armed Forces Bowl January 4 in Fort Worth.
Let’s wrap up our final report of 2019 with college basketball…
▪ Ole Miss will be home favorites its last game of the year Sunday vs. Tennessee Tech (SEC Network, 3 p.m.). The Rebels are currently 8-3 straight up, 6-5 against the spread.
▪ Mississippi State closes out 2019 on Monday vs. Kent State (SEC Network, 7 p.m.). The Bulldogs have been off since Dec. 22 when they were upset by New Mexico State 58-52 as 4.5-point favorites at Mississippi Coliseum in Jackson. They’re also 8-3 straight up, but 5-5-1 ATS.
▪ Southern Miss begins a quick home-and-home with Louisiana Tech in Conference USA play Monday night. The two square off in Hattiesburg before playing again Saturday in Ruston. Southern Miss is a disappointing 4-9 straight up, 5-5 ATS (victories over Tougaloo, William Carey, and Delta State weren’t lined at major sports books).
VSiN wishes you an early Happy New Year! We’ll see you again on the second day of 2020.