Here’s where the Saints stand in the Super Bowl chase according to Vegas
Thanks to a dominant 34-7 win over the Indianapolis Colts this past Monday night, the New Orleans Saints moved back atop the NFC futures board.
A global composite of odds to win the NFC shows: Saints 2/1, 49ers 3/1, Seahawks 3/1, Packers 6/1, Vikings 12/1, Cowboys 14/1, Eagles 20/1, Rams 100/1.
Seedings are very much in flux because the top four teams listed above all currently have 11-3 records. New Orleans enjoys the inside track for at least a bye because it will be favored to win its last two games, and has a head-to-head tiebreaker edge over Seattle. The Seahawks will host San Francisco in the regular season finale, guaranteeing at least one of those teams will lose again.
On the heels of that colossal rout of the Colts (keyed by a 424-205 edge in total yardage, a 6.7 to 3.9 advantage in yards-per-play, and a historically sharp passing line of 29-30-0-307 for Drew Brees), New Orleans will likely close as field-goal favorites Sunday at Tennessee (FOX, noon).
Early money is showing interest on Tennessee at +3. The Titans have been playing much more impressively since Ryan Tannehill took over at quarterback. They also have a one-day advantage in rest and preparation because the Saints played Monday. Some sports books are charging -120 vigorish to bet the Titans (+3), meaning the Saints are even money at -3.
Monitor markets this weekend to see if books are forced to drop below the key number before kickoff.
In other games involving NFC contenders this weekend:
▪ San Francisco will likely close as favorites of -6.5 Saturday (yes, Saturday!) against the Los Angeles Rams (NFL Network, 7:15 p.m.). A loss (or a Minnesota victory) would eliminate the Rams from playoff contention. We can deduce that sharps don’t like the Niners in this price range or the line would have already moved to the key number of seven.
▪ Resurgent Dallas will likely close laying -2.5 points Sunday at Philadelphia. Those two are tied for first place in the NFC East with 7-7 records. The Cowboys did bounce back strong from recent losses last week with a 44-21 rout of the Rams. Philadelphia hasn’t done anything that impressive since winning big at Buffalo two months ago. Markets can’t figure out what to do with the recently erratic Cowboys.
▪ Minnesota will likely close as favorites of at least -5 or -5.5 over Green Bay Monday night (ESPN, 7:15 p.m.). The line could rise before kickoff amid pundit chatter that the Packers only have to win their season finale over Detroit to claim the NFC North.
If you’re wondering about odds to win the Super Bowl, the Saints are now second in the NFL behind the Baltimore Ravens. VSiN’s global composite shows: Ravens 9/4, Saints 11/2, Patriots 6/1, 49ers 7/1, Seahawks 7/1, Chiefs 7/1, Packers 14/1, Vikings 25/1, Cowboys 28/1, Bills 33/1. (Note that the Patriots host the Bills Saturday on the NFL Network at 3:30 p.m., where Tom Brady and company will likely close as 6.5-point favorites.)
College Football Bowl Notes
Though Southern Miss won’t play until January 4 in the Armed Forces Bowl against Tulane (probably as a 7-point underdog unless there are player suspensions or injuries in practice for either team), several of the Golden Eagles’ Conference USA rivals will be in action between Saturday and Christmas…
▪ Florida Atlantic will likely close as a three-point underdog on its home field to SMU in the Boca Raton Bowl (Saturday, ABC, 2:30 p.m.). Head coach Lane Kiffin left at the end of the season to run the Ole Miss program.
▪ Florida International garnered informed interest at +3 vs Arkansas State in the Camellia Bowl in Montgomery (Saturday, ESPN, 4:30 p.m.), and will likely close at +2.5 or less.
▪ UAB is a huge dog to Appalachian State in the New Orleans Bowl (Saturday, ESPN, 8 p.m.), though an opening line of +17.5 has been bet down to +16.5 or +16 depending on the store.
▪ Marshall is also a monster dog in its bowl, still getting +17.5 from Central Florida in the Gasparilla Bowl in Tampa (Monday, ESPN, 1:30 p.m.)
A quick item of interest for SEC fans, LSU’s line vs. Oklahoma in their national semifinal rose to -14 this week when the Sooners announced they had suspended three players.
College Basketball Notes
▪ Southern Miss played its best game of the season earlier this week, taking Texas Tech to the wire in Lubbock as 22-point underdogs. The Golden Eagles faded late in a 71-65 loss that easily covered the spread. Southern goes off the market radar Saturday afternoon in a home game against Tougaloo.
▪ Mississippi State will be a home favorite Saturday afternoon against New Mexico State (SEC Network, 2 p.m.). Conference play for the Bulldogs will begin January 4 at home against current #12 Auburn.
▪ Ole Miss will be a home favorite Saturday against Southeastern Louisiana (SEC Network, 1 p.m.). SEC play doesn’t begin for the Rebels until Jan. 7 at Texas A&M.