Where things stands for the Saints and the rest of the NFC as they chase top seed
The NFC’s road to the Super Bowl may not go through the Superdome.
Not long ago, the New Orleans Saints were clear favorites to win the NFC. They were positioned atop the conference standings while possessing a relatively friendly schedule. A healthy Drew Brees and company were likely to earn a No. 1 seed, which meant the opportunity to host two playoff games as favorites.
Now, San Francisco holds the top spot in the NFC with an 11-2 record after upsetting the Saints last Sunday. The Niners (+2) won a 48-46 thrill ride, taking total yardage 516-465, yards-per-play 8.2 to 6.8, rushing yards 162-116, and third down conversions 50% to 45%. In other words, a clean win. San Francisco was the better team that day, even in the Superdome.
Green Bay is now positioned to snare the No. 2 seed. Both the Packers and the Saints are 10-3 straight up. They won’t face each other for an obvious tie-breaker. Green Bay currently has fewer losses in NFC play at 7-2. New Orleans is 8-3, but can’t inflict a loss on the Packers.
If New Orleans finishes as a No. 3 seed, it won’t get a bye….and will have to host a dangerous wildcard right off the bat (probably Minnesota, but possibly Seattle or the Los Angeles Rams). And, that could just be for the honor of visiting Green Bay and San Francisco after that.
There’s time for the outlook to get better. The Saints must take care of business and get some help.
The first part of “taking care of business” comes Monday night vs. Indianapolis (ESPN, 7:15 p.m.) New Orleans will probably close as at least a nine-point favorite. Even if Indy money is one-sided, sports books would be hesitant to drop the line to -8.5 or -8 because it would invite teaser plays on the Saints. Teasers allow you to move a line at least six points in your favor. A line of 8.5 or 8 would mean dropping through very key numbers of seven and three on the way down to 2.5 or two. (Sportsbooks would rather give you Indy +9 straight than New Orleans -2.5 in teasers!)
The Colts have been competitive underdogs this season, failing to cover only twice in seven opportunities (3-2-2 against the spread). In its only game getting more than six points, Indy (+10.5) shocked Kansas City 19-13.
New Orleans is just 1-2 ATS when favored by more than a touchdown. The Saints (-12.5) blew out Arizona 31-9, but struggled to get past Carolina 34-31 laying 10, and lost outright to Atlanta 26-9 laying 14.
Sharps preferring the Colts are waiting to see how many points they can get. Market observers know the wise guys aren’t looking at New Orleans here, or smart money already would have bet the Saints to the key number of -10. Public money could still do that on game day.
In games involving NFC contenders this Sunday:
▪ Green Bay will likely close as favorites of -4.5 or -5 vs. Chicago. The Packers haven’t been sharp lately, and the Bears have extra rest coming off a Thursday night win over Dallas. Maybe New Orleans will have already received some critical help before it takes the field Monday night!
▪ Seattle should close as at least 5.5 to 6-point favorites at Carolina. The Panthers have been in a free-fall lately, but it is a “bad body clock” starting time for the Seahawks.
▪ San Francisco will probably close at -10.5 or -11 vs. Atlanta. Though the Falcons have been playing well in recent weeks…and the Niners are in an obvious letdown spot after playing in Baltimore and New Orleans the past two weeks. Could get interesting.
▪ The Los Angeles Rams were bet from underdogs to favorites in Dallas, and will probably close around -1 or pick-em. Dallas is another team in free-fall, which gives the Rams a chance to crash the wildcard party with a road win.
▪ Minnesota will likely close at -2.5 or -3 on the road against the sloppy Los Angeles Chargers. Bolts quarterback Phillip Rivers is overdue to win a close game after so many heartbreaking losses.
Who knows? Things could get very interesting in the NFL between now and VSiN’s next visit with you on Thursday.
College Basketball Notes
▪ Mississippi State tips off the weekend Saturday vs. Kansas State in a special feature scheduled in Newark, N.J. (ESPNU, 10:30 a.m.). The Bulldogs are 6-2 straight up, 4-3-1 ATS this season. They are currently ranked about 30 spots higher than K-State in Ken Pomeroy’s respected computer ratings (kenpom.com).
▪ Ole Miss hosts Middle Tennessee Saturday (SEC Network, 2 p.m.). The Rebels are 6-3 straight up, 5-4 ATS entering the weekend. The visiting Blue Raiders aren’t expected to provide much of a threat.
▪ Southern Miss hosts North Florida Saturday (2 p.m.). The Golden Eagles are just 3-7 straight up so far, but a money maker for bettors at 6-4 ATS.