Why bettors aren’t quite buying the Saints’ chances against the 49ers on Sunday
For weeks, it’s been seen as a potential NFC Championship preview. Now, Sunday’s much-anticipated showdown between the San Francisco 49ers and New Orleans Saints (FOX, noon) might foreshadow an earlier meeting.
Despite a stellar 10-2 record, San Francisco currently sits in a wildcard spot because of a head-to-head loss to Seattle (also 10-2). If that holds, a potential Niners/Saints rematch would happen earlier in January. Same thing if the Saints lose Sunday, and stagger out of a bye opportunity.
Though, however you slice it…Sunday’s blockbuster features a pair of very serious Super Bowl threats. Here’s a look at composite global odds to win the Lombardi Trophy entering Week 14…
Baltimore 5/2, New England 4/1, New Orleans 5/1, San Francisco 15/2, Seattle 8/1, Kansas City 11/1, Green Bay 16/1.
In Sunday’s showcase, an opening line of New Orleans -3 was bet down to -2.5 by midweek. That’s a surprising indictment of the Saints’ recent form, considering…
▪ Home field advantage is usually worth three points by itself.
▪ San Francisco has an awkward early kickoff as a West Coast team for the second straight Sunday.
▪ San Francisco is playing its third big game in as many weeks, having just battled Green Bay and Baltimore.
▪ New Orleans has extra rest and preparation coming off a Thanksgiving night win in Atlanta.
All that, yet the line dropped and settled (at least temporarily) below the key number of three.
Why are sharps suddenly skeptical of the Saints?
▪ New Orleans only gained 279 yards in Atlanta, while converting just two of 10 on third down attempts. The offense was expected to dominate a bad Falcons team indoors on a fast track. It will have to play better to beat San Francisco.
▪ New Orleans was lucky to get past Carolina 34-31 the prior week. Carolina has since fired its head coach after losing its next game to woeful Washington.
▪ Since returning from a thumb injury, quarterback Drew Brees is relying mostly on short pass attempts rather than aggressively challenging defenses. Sharps noticed!
New Orleans may currently be on top of the NFC futures board. It’s sitting precariously.
Other big NFL games this weekend:
▪ Current championship favorite Baltimore will likely close as a five or 5.5-point favorite at Buffalo. The Bills’ defense will provide a great test for the explosive Ravens’ offense.
▪ New England will likely close as a 3-point favorite at home vs. Kansas City in a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship game (CBS, 3:25 p.m.). The Patriots have turned mortal in recent weeks, losing outright as favorites in Baltimore and Houston…and winning unimpressive grinders vs. Dallas and Philadelphia.
▪ Seattle visits the Los Angeles Rams Sunday night (NBC, 7:20 p.m.). That was bet down to pick-em after the surging Seahawks opened as a road favorite (they were a slight home dog in their first meeting!). Saints fans will be rooting for the Rams here.
Other Notes
▪ VSiN recently discussed how head coaches are often fired for failing to meet expectations. That’s not really the case in market terms for Carolina’s Ron Rivera. The Panthers enter the new week 6-6 against the pointspread (a weekly proxy for expectations). Despite a 5-7 straight up record, they could still reach their market-projected victory total from this past summer of eight wins. Owner David Tepper has expectations bigger than what the market is currently seeing for New Orleans’ NFC South rival. Though, Carolina failing to cover three of its last four may have caused Tepper to pull this early trigger.
▪ Circa Sports in Las Vegas is the only sports book globally to publicly post its in-house Power Ratings used to set opening lines. Entering “Championship Weekend,” five teams from the SEC were in Circa’s top 11…
Ohio State 113, Clemson 112.75, LSU 109, Georgia 104, Alabama 102.75, Oklahoma 102, Utah 99.75, Wisconsin 97.5, Michigan 96.75, Florida 96, Auburn 94.75.
Those represent neutral field differentials. So, both Ohio State and Clemson would likely open as favorites over LSU in any Final Four meeting (subject to updated team perceptions after this weekend). Even with two losses, Alabama is seen as superior to both Oklahoma and Utah (though the Tide won’t be considered for the playoffs because of last week’s defeat at Auburn). The SEC and Big 10 combine for eight of the top 11 spots.
▪ In college basketball, Ole Miss is back on the floor Saturday afternoon vs. Cal-Bakersfield (SEC Network, 1 p.m.) after suffering two bad recent losses. This past Tuesday, the Rebels (-1) lost at home to Butler 67-58 (a 10-point miss). In its prior outing, Ole Miss (-1) was crushed by Oklahoma State 78-37 (a 40-point miss) in the championship game of the NIT Tip-Off Classic in Brooklyn, NY.
Those failures dropped Ole Miss to No. 70 in Ken Pomeroy’s midweek college basketball computer ratings, slightly worse than “Dance caliber.”
Southern Miss hosts Southern Illinois Saturday at 2 p.m. Mississippi State is off until next Saturday, when it faces Kansas State in the “Never Forget Tribute Classic” in Newark, NJ.
Jeff Fogle writes the daily VSiN newsletter. Sign up at VSiN.com/newsletter.