Why the Saints are rolling and the Panthers are suddenly reeling
After a quick bump in the road, the New Orleans Saints got back on track last week with a 34-17 rout of the Tampa Bay Bucs as 5-point road favorites.
This week, Drew Brees and company could close as 10-point favorites or higher at home against the suddenly reeling Carolina Panthers (CBS, noon). Carolina has dropped three of its last four games, including blowouts by scores of 51-13 at San Francisco, and 29-3 last week vs. Atlanta.
Though the Saints have edges over most teams in a lot of areas, perhaps the most important is their efficient offense. Last week’s win/cover didn’t feature impressive yardage stats. In fact, Tampa Bay won total yardage 334-328 and yards-per-play 5.5 to 5.1. Why the rout?
▪ New Orleans played very clean against a mistake-prone opponent. No turnovers for the Saints, four for the Bucs. Passing was a breeze with Brees. The Saints’ passing line was a sharp 28-35-0-219 (only 7 incompletions) compared to 30-51-4-298 for the Bucs (21 incompletions).
▪ Even if you throw out turnovers, New Orleans drove the field much more effectively, converting 54% of third down tries (7 of 13) compared to just 38% (5 of 13) for Tampa Bay.
▪ New Orleans knows how to finish drives. The Saints turned three of four red zone opportunities into touchdowns. The Bucs were just one of two in close.
Teams that can move the ball without miscues, then finish drives with touchdowns, will go a long way in the NFL. Sharps have taken advantage of that for years. Many offenses are having problems in 2019 because they struggle in one or more of those important areas.
Carolina’s recent collapse has involved all three…
▪ At San Francisco, Carolina had 3 turnovers, went 2 of 13 on third downs, and didn’t even reach the red zone.
▪ At Green Bay, Carolina had 2 turnovers, went 4 of 10 on third downs, and 2 of 4 in the red zone.
▪ Against Atlanta, Carolina had 4 turnovers, went 2 of 14 on third downs, and 0 of 2 in the red zone.
That’s nine giveaways, 8 of 37 on third downs, and 33% hitting pay dirt in the red zone.
As long as New Orleans learned a lesson from its lapse vs. Atlanta, the Saints should be able to control their fate Sunday in the Superdome.
Other Notes
▪ New Orleans (8-2) is currently slotted as the #3 seed in the NFC playoff picture, behind San Francisco (9-1) and Green Bay (8-2). The Packers temporarily own the tie-breaker over the Saints with only one conference loss. But, New Orleans can gain ground this week because SF and GB play each other Sunday night (NBC, 7:20 p.m.). One will lose, or they’ll tie!
The pointspread has been hopping between San Francisco -3 and -3.5 all week. Green Bay draws support as an appealing road dog at +3.5. The Niners become an affordable home favorite on the key number of -3. Sharps know the percentages are razor thin in that tight window. Monitor the markets on game day to see who the public prefers.
▪ Two other NFC playoff contenders are in danger of losing this week because they’ve drawn the top two AFC powers. Dallas will likely close just under a touchdown underdog at New England Sunday (FOX, 3:25 p.m.). The Los Angeles Rams should close as a 3-point home underdog against visiting Baltimore Monday night (ESPN, 7:15 p.m.).
▪ This week’s odds to win the Super Bowl at the Westgate in Las Vegas: New England 14/5, New Orleans 4/1, Baltimore 9/2, San Francisco 8/1, Kansas City 9/1, Green Bay 12/1, Minnesota 14/1, Seattle 16/1, Dallas 20/1.
Given those prices, betting markets are confident the Saints will ultimately earn a top two seed and a bye in the NFC brackets.
▪ A quick college football item to ponder before Saturday’s kickoffs. Circa Sports in Las Vegas posted the top 25 teams in the Power Ratings they use to make pointspreads. The SEC has six teams in Circa’s top 14: No. 3 LSU 106.25 (just behind Clemson and Ohio State), No. 4 Georgia 104.25, No. 6 Alabama 101.50, No. 10 Auburn 96.0, No. 11 Florida 95.5, and No. 14 Texas A&M 93.0.
Power Ratings reflect neutral field point differentials. Sports books usually adjust about three points for home field advantage.
Alabama fell 4.75 points after star quarterback Tua Tagovailoa suffered his season-ending injury last week. How much is a great quarterback worth in the line? There’s your answer, at least when comparing “Alabama with Tua” to “Alabama with Mac Jones.”