Falcons-Saints proves anything is possible on the NFL. Take note if you’re a bettor.
On any given Sunday…
Though, in the era of tanking, it was believed that teams “motivated” to lose for draft position might not be interested in scoring upsets in the second half of the season. Would “anything can happen in the NFL” still apply to 2019?
The previously 1-7 Atlanta Falcons answered that question with a resounding yes last week. Instead of trying to chase down the winless Cincinnati Bengals in the “Joe Burrow Sweepstakes,” they stunned the Saints 26-9 as 14-point underdogs.
The upset by itself was a shocker. But, a 17-point win and a 31-point cover?!
Game stats weren’t as dramatic, but clearly showed the right team won. Atlanta won total yardage 317-310, rushing yards 143-52, third down conversions 40% to 25%, and touchdowns in the red zone 40% (2 of 5) to 0% (0 of 3).
VSiN isn’t saying Atlanta is the better team. The Falcons executed better that day against an overconfident opponent.
As headline-making as this result was, it might not be a game anyone remembers come January. New Orleans still has a two game lead in the NFC South because Carolina also lost (24-16 at Green Bay as a 4-point dog). It didn’t kill the Saints’ chances to earn the No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the NFC brackets because San Francisco also lost (27-24 to Seattle as 6-point favorites). They still have a relatively soft remaining schedule, as VSiN discussed last week.
And, believe it or not, it didn’t have any effect on Super Bowl futures boards. The Westgate in Las Vegas still has New Orleans 9/2, second only to New England at 5/2.
Should you bet that it won’t happen again? New Orleans will likely close as favorites of -5.5 points Sunday at Tampa Bay (FOX, noon). Though, if the public starts betting the bounce back, the closing line could rise to -6 or -6.5.
Most dangerous for recreational bettors is the thought that New Orleans should go in money line parlays where you only bet the straight up winner. Many “squares” lost huge last week with that strategy. New Orleans and Indianapolis both fell as double digit favorites…San Francisco, Kansas City, the Los Angeles Rams, and Dallas were all playoff contenders that lost as favorites of a field goal or more.
Sportsbooks across the US had one of their biggest Sundays ever because so many favorite-loaded parlays crashed.
Recreational bettors should know that it is possible for the Saints to lose two games in a row. Tampa Bay is a revenge-minded divisional rival that isn’t likely to lay down on the job. The enigmatic Bucs took Seattle to overtime two Sundays ago. If you’re absolutely convinced that peak performance from Drew Brees and company is a certainty Sunday, you should still bet responsibly.
How much would you have bet on the Saints +16 at home against Atlanta? A mortgage or two? No sure things in the NFL.
Other Notes
▪ Saints/Bucs is one of two games Sunday matching NFC South rivals head-to-head. Carolina will likely close as a 5.5-point favorite at home against Atlanta. If the Falcons have their act together, that line could still be a little high. Do they?
▪ Sunday’s most actively bet game across the nation will likely be the Super Bowl LII rematch featuring the New England Patriots at the Philadelphia Eagles (CBS, 3:25 p.m.). There’s now legal betting in Pennsylvania and New Jersey! The Pats will likely close as 3.5-point favorites. New England is always popular as a cheap favorite even when it doesn’t have Super Bowl revenge on its mind. Philadelphia will have appeal as a live home dog capable of matching Baltimore’s recent upset of the Patriots.
▪ Let’s update our notes earlier this season about the sudden disappearance of home field advantage. Home teams have been performing better lately (the Saints notwithstanding). Through Week 10, their straight up record was 72-69 if you throw out neutral field games in England (plus last week’s Giants/Jets game at shared MetLife Stadium).
The math still showed a slight “road field advantage” edge in margin at 0.44 points per game. The Baltimore Ravens are the driving force there, with road wins of 49 points at Miami, and 36 at Cincinnati.
Playing at home can’t possibly be a long-lasting negative in a professional sport. Travel takes its toll. Loud home crowds can intimidate opponents. Maybe the traditional value of three points has been reduced to two or 2.5 because travel is easier than it used to be…and because “silent counts” on offense have partly negated hostile noise.
Be sure you’re not giving home field advantage too much credit in your personal bets. According to covers.com, road underdogs are 58-37-3 against the spread this season. Public bettors who feel “safe” with home favorites have been on the wrong end of that!
This story was originally published November 14, 2019 at 5:15 PM.