Here’s how Vegas is reassessing the Saints ahead of the Cowboys game

Last Sunday, the New Orleans Saints shocked betting markets and many NFL pundits with a 33-27 upset victory in Seattle as a 5-point underdog. Unfortunately, a closer look at the game suggests the offense could still have trouble in the absence of injured star quarterback Drew Brees.

▪ While the Saints scored 33 points, the offense by itself only tallied 20. New Orleans returned a punt 53 yards for a TD, and a fumble 33 yards. No team can score special teams or defensive points “on command,” no matter how much they emphasize those elements.

▪ One of the Saints’ offensive TDs came on a short 28-yard drive after Seattle gambled and lost on a fourth and one play down 27-14 in the fourth quarter. Give Teddy Bridgewater and company credit for turning that defensive stand into seven points. Those were still relatively cheap points.

▪ In pure skill sets of moving the chains and racking up yardage, New Orleans was just 3 of 11 for 27% on the way to only 265 total yards.

If you only knew that Seattle (not New Orleans) won total yardage 515-265 on 6.8 to 5.3 yards-per-play, you’d be shocked at the final score.

Sharps know there’s a lot of air in last Sunday’s numbers for both teams. The New Orleans offense wasn’t as good as “33 points” suggest. Seattle’s offense wasn’t as good as “515 yards” suggest because so much came in garbage time after falling way behind. The Seahawks scored a TD on the final play of regulation to trim a 33-21 deficit. Winning bettors make a good faith effort to understand real-world skill sets, then map out expectations based on those.

Can New Orleans derail the undefeated Dallas Cowboys Sunday night (NBC, 7:20 p.m.) without getting cheap points? Markets are currently giving the straight up nod to the visiting ‘Pokes, who are laying -2.5 points in the Superdome. But, whenever the pointspread nudges to the key number of three, sharp money comes in hard on the home underdog. This means Wise Guys do believe New Orleans can keep this game competitive, and possibly score their second straight upset.

Note that Seattle has been bet up from -3.5 to -5 in its game on the road at Arizona…respect for last week’s yardage stats at the expense of cheap points.

Power Ratings are starting to settle three weeks into the new season. VSiN’s Jonathan Von Tobel (“The Edge”) and I put our heads together to estimate how “the market” is currently rating teams based on this week’s pointspreads. On the scale below, 85 and up represents “championship caliber,” 80 and up represents playoff caliber.

▪ NFC: LA Rams 85, Dallas 85, Green Bay 83, Minnesota 83, Philadelphia 82, Chicago 82, Seattle 82, Atlanta 82, New Orleans (Bridgewater at QB) 80, San Francisco 80, Carolina 80 (Allen), Detroit 79, Tampa Bay 78, Washington 75, NY Giants (Jones) 75, Arizona 74.

We put new quarterbacks in parenthesis. The Saints would be around 85 with future Hall-of-Famer Brees. Carolina might scoot up a couple of points when Cam Newton returns (though Luke Allen impressed last week).

This is a very deep conference in terms of featuring “pretty good” teams. Bridgewater’s upset of Seattle will help the Saints stay within striking distance.

Betting markets still see New England and Kansas City from the AFC as the top threats to win the Lombardi trophy.

▪ AFC: New England 90, Kansas City 88, Baltimore 84, Houston 82, LA Chargers 82, Indianapolis 82, Tennessee 81, Buffalo 80, Cleveland 80, Oakland 78, Pittsburgh 78 (Rudolph), Denver 77, Cincinnati 77, Jacksonville 77 (Minshew), NY Jets 70 (Falk), Miami (Rosen) 63.

Teams are much more spread out here. Miami is clearly the worst NFL team in YEARS given early results and recent point spreads. If not for the Dolphins, everyone would be talking about how bad the Jets are.

VSiN will update these for you periodically through the season…particularly after Brees returns.

Other notes

▪ Carolina has become an interesting story with the emergence of Kyle Allen. It’s hard to judge a young quarterback on just one game. And, that game came against lowly Arizona. But a passing line of 19-26-0-241 with four TD passes is nothing to sneeze at. The Panthers are one of three NFC South teams tied at 1-2 in the standings, trailing the 2-1 Saints by a game.

This week in the division, Carolina will likely close around +4 of +4.5 at Houston, Atlanta will probably be sitting at -4 at home vs. Tennessee, with Tampa Bay closing around +9.5 or +10 at the Los Angeles Rams.

All the Saints have to do to reach the playoffs is win the division. The upset of Seattle put an expected loss into the win column.

▪ The Major League Baseball playoffs will get underway before the next time we’re together. Betting fun begins Tuesday with the National League Wildcard game, followed Wednesday by the American League wildcard. Survivors will face the league’s respective top seeds in best-of-five divisional-round action later in the week. We’ll talk about handicapping strategies and update futures prices in our Thursday report.

This story was originally published September 26, 2019 at 4:19 PM.