Tips for placing bets on Saints-Vikings and other NFL preseason games
Pro football’s 2019 preseason slate shifts into full gear this week with all 32 NFL teams in action.
The New Orleans Saints open their exhibition schedule Friday at home against the Minnesota Vikings at 7 p.m. Early betting saw the point spread hopping between New Orleans -2.5 and Minnesota +3. You regulars from last football season remember that three is a “key” number in football betting because so many games land on that margin. Though, it’s not quite as common in pro exhibitions because teams try to avoid late-game ties that could set up overtime. (Injury avoidance is a top priority!)
National TV games for bettors to enjoy are limited to the NFL Network this week. Those telecasts will be….N.Y. Jets vs. N.Y. Giants (Thursday, 6 p.m.), the Los Angeles Chargers at Arizona (Thursday, 9 p.m.), Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh (Friday, 6:30 p.m.), and Dallas at San Francisco (Saturday, 8 p.m.)
Is betting on the NFL preseason for sharp investors? Or only so-called gambling “degenerates?”
You’ll hear both as answers in this first full week of exhibition action. Critics will say you’d have to be crazy to bet on games that will be decided by third and fourth teamers. Veteran bettors will say it’s crazy not to bet if you have a real edge.
Why do sharps believe they can find edges in games that don’t even count in the standings. Among the many reasons…
▪ There’s often an early-game mismatch in terms of how long high impact players can be on the field. That by itself can be worth a touchdown against low point spreads.
▪ There’s often a mid-game mismatch where on team’s backup quarterback is an experienced hand who knows how to drive the field for points, while his opponent is a first or second-year player who’s been instructed to play it safe. There are Augusts where this by itself is worth two or three touchdowns for a handful of teams.
▪ There’s occasionally a fourth-quarter mismatch where one team using an up-and-coming playmaker at quarterback is trying to beat an opponent that wants to finish the game and go home. A nice ace to have up your sleeve.
▪ It’s not uncommon to see preseason games where both coaches just want to play it safe and get out of Dodge without suffering injuries. Scoring sums in these matchups will stay well below posted Over/Unders.
▪ Some head coaches emphasize offensive execution in early action. They can drive Overs all by themselves.
VSiN isn’t suggesting August is full of nothing but free money. Randomness does play a large role in determining outcomes, particularly special teams or defensive touchdowns. You saw last Thursday that Denver needed a few late breaks to sneak past Atlanta in the final moments of the Hall of Fame game. You’ll see a lot more of it soon.
Edges can be found by following online team coverage… by listening to head coaches in press conferences…by researching head coaching trends (remembering to account for coaching changes)…by studying exhibition history of veteran quarterbacks…and by looking for schedule quirks that will give one team a preparation advantage over the other.
Bettors don’t have to win all of their plays to make money. They just have to hit better than 52.4% to beat the standard 11/10 vigorish on losses. NFL preseason dynamics make that achievable.
Other Notes
▪ Saints fans have noticed that individual exhibition team trends don’t necessarily hold from year to year. Last August, New Orleans opened on the road with a 24-20 win at Jacksonville as a 2-point underdog. That ignited a 3-1 straight up and against-the-spread campaign. The prior season, New Orleans dropped its opener at Cleveland before going 2-2 straight up and ATS. Three years ago, the Saints were a woeful 0-4 straight up and ATS. Local bettors should listen closely to comments from head coach Sean Payton about his immediate plans before trying to read the 2019 tea leaves.
▪ When monitoring the preseason betting market, remember that early line moves are almost always driven by sharp betting. The general public is less likely to bet these games, and typically waits until the last second when playing for entertainment. Immediate moves off openers, or mid-week moves off of personnel announcements are driven by smart money. Be careful fading any such moves. It’s rarely smart to go against the wise guys in August.