Is it a good idea to bet on the Saints Sunday? Here’s some advice.

Should you lay points with the Saints in Sunday’s season opener?

New Orleans has been a solid favorite of -9.5 points over the Tampa Bay Bucs across the globe ever since it was announced weeks ago that Ryan Fitzpatrick would start at QB in lieu of suspended Jameis Winston.

If you focus on last year’s performance as home favorites, the answer at first glance seems to be a resounding YES.

New Orleans went 5-2 in against the spread in 2017 as home chalk (Vegas slang for favorites, because point spreads were written in chalk on blackboards in the old days.). Last season’s home opener was against defending Super Bowl champion (at the time) New England. New Orleans was an underdog in that one. Saints were favorites in their other seven home games.

Here’s a quick look at the point spreads and final scores in those seven spots. We’ve listed them in the order they were played. The non-covers came against Washington in an overtime win, and in a late-season jaunt past the huge underdog New York Jets.

New Orleans as Home Favorites in 2017

▪ New Orleans (-6) beat Detroit 52-38

▪ New Orleans (-7.5) beat Chicago 20-12

▪ New Orleans (-7) beat Tampa Bay 30-10

▪ New Orleans (-9.5) beat Washington 34-31 in OT

▪ New Orleans (-5.5) beat Carolina 31-21

▪ New Orleans (-16.5) beat the NY Jets 31-19

▪ New Orleans (-5.5) beat Atlanta 23-13

A clean sheet in terms of straight up victories. And, 5-2 ATS will make you a lot of money against 11/10 vigorish.

Though, danger starts to become apparent when to stack those by point spread size. The higher the spread, the less impressive the Saints played.

▪ New Orleans (-16.5) didn’t cover vs. NYJ

▪ New Orleans (-9.5) almost lost to Washington

▪ New Orleans (-7.5) barely covered vs. Chicago

▪ New Orleans (-7) covered by 13 vs. Tampa Bay

▪ New Orleans (-6) covered by 8 vs. Detroit

▪ New Orleans (-5.5) covered by 4.5 vs. Carolina

▪ New Orleans (-5.5) covered by 4.5 vs. Atlanta

When a respected opponent came to visit, New Orleans played near its peak potential. Against opponents that didn’t get the juices flowing as much, relative sluggishness. Saints bettors spent a lot of time yelling at their TVs vs. New York, Washington, and even Chicago.

Market readers say that you can deduce “sharp sentiment,” (how the most important market influences see a game) by studying what happens around “key numbers” like 3, 7, or 10. Those

reflect common final scoreboard margins because they correspond to a field goal, a touchdown, or a combination of one each.

▪ Lines of -2.5, -6.5, and -9.5 generally get bet UP

▪ Lines of -3.5, -7.5, and -10.5 often get bet DOWN

When that DOESN’T happen, it tells you that professional wagerers weren’t swayed by the key number. In this case, sharps WEREN’T interested in the Saints -9.5 even though 10 would seem like a common final margin for this game. Sharps must have made the line Saints -9, -8.5, or -8 themselves, and are hoping to back the underdog Bucs for value if +10 comes into play.

If your local sports books get flooded with fans wanting to bet the Saints, you could see lines as high as -10, -10.5 or more. Pro bettors will certainly be looking to bet the Bucs at those prices.

So, that’s the conundrum to consider as you handicap Saints/Bucs. While New Orleans is fully capable of winning by double digits as home favorites … and got the money 71% of the time last season in that role…the most experienced and successful market influences AREN’T interested in a host which lost its killer instinct last year at high prices.

VSiN wishes you the best of luck in your first full weekend of LEGAL betting on the NFL. We hope you’ll check out our live stream subscription programming direct from Las Vegas featuring game day market reports. Don’t forget that are weekday email newsletter “VSiN City” is free of charge. Details on all VSiN offerings available at vsin.com.

This story was originally published September 7, 2018 at 11:41 AM.