Here’s how Las Vegas sees the New Orleans Saints faring in 2018

Just seconds away from reaching the NFC Championship game last season, the New Orleans Saints find themselves in a crowded field of contenders entering the 2018 campaign.

Betting markets currently see the Saints as “playoff caliber,” but not necessarily “conference championship caliber.” Futures prices at the Westgate in Las Vegas are representative of market perceptions.

Odds to win NFC (Westgate)

Philadelphia — 5/1

Minnesota — 5/1

LA Rams — 5/1

Green Bay — 7/1

Atlanta — 8/1

New Orleans — 9/1

San Francisco — 10/1

Dallas — 15/1

That’s a lot of names in the NFC hat. High quality names too. Philadelphia is the defending Super Bowl champion. Defensive-minded Minnesota was NFC runner-up, and upgraded at quarterback by acquiring Kirk Cousins. The hard-charging Rams are flush with talent and playing for an up-and-coming head coach. Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan don’t crack the top three! Drew Brees and his Saints are right on the cusp of postseason consideration, as six teams will reach the NFC brackets.

Are there any smart bets at those odds? While somebody has to win the NFC, professional wagerers generally avoid futures bets because they don’t pay off at true odds. That becomes more clear when you convert odds into percentage equivalents. (To do these yourself, take the number on the right, and divide it by the sum of the two numbers…so one divided by 10 for the Saints is exactly 10%.)

NFC Percentage Win Equivalents

Philadelphia — 17%

Minnesota — 17%

LA Rams — 17%

Green Bay — 13%

Atlanta — 11%

New Orleans — 10%

San Francisco — 9%

Dallas — 7%

We’re already past 100% in total, and eight teams is only half the NFC! Sports books create a universe larger than 100% to represent the house edge. It’s certainly plausible that longer shots like Carolina, Detroit, or the NY Giants (all 5% using 20/1 odds from the Westgate) could outperform expectations and sneak through too. You can see why “sharps” in Vegas don’t like futures. Payoffs don’t justify the real risk.

Bettors looking to back the Saints may find it best to go week-to-week. New Orleans went 9-7 against the spread during the regular season in 2017. That’s a 56% success rate, enough to show a profit against the standard 11/10 vigorish (losing bets pay $11, winning bets earn $10 at most sports books).

New Orleans was most profitable as affordable home favorites. The Saints were 5-0 ATS as home favorites or -7.5 points or less during the regular season.

Saints’ Sweet Spot: -7.5 or Less at Home

New Orleans (-6) beat Detroit 52-38

New Orleans (-7.5) beat Chicago 20-12

New Orleans (-7) beat Tampa Bay 30-10

New Orleans (-5.5) beat Carolina 31-21

New Orleans (-5.5) beat Atlanta 23-13

Of course, that means New Orleans was 4-7 ATS otherwise. Two non-covers as big home favorites vs. Washington and the New York Jets, a loss to New England as a home dog, and then a 4-4 ATS split in eight road games.

Preseason begins Thursday August 9 at Jacksonville. New Orleans opens the regular season Sunday September 9 vs. Tampa Bay. Note that Bucs quarterback Jameis Winston is suspended for that game. Backup Ryan Fitzpatrick is likely to be the starting signal caller.

How often will New Orleans get a chance to inflict a loss on other NFC contenders? Let’s take a look at games scheduled against the other teams from that Westgate list.

September 23: at Atlanta

October 28: at Minnesota

November 4: vs. the LA Rams

November 18: vs. Philadelphia

November 22: vs. Atlanta (Thanksgiving night)

November 29: at Dallas

Conference championship potential could well be determined by that brutal stretch from October 28 through November 29. That’s FIVE games vs. projected threats in just over a month, including home games vs. both Philadelphia and Atlanta within a quick 5-day stretch.

Excel then, and Drew Brees maybe headed back to another Super Bowl. Struggle…and bettors will be happy they tried to pick spots in the best cover scenarios rather than taking the Saints at 9/1 to win the NFC.

NFL opening week odds

Team — Line

Sept. 6

7:30 p.m.

Atlanta Falcons — 47

Philadephia Eagles — -.3.5

Sept. 9

12 p.m.

Pittsburgh Steelers — -6

Cleveland Browns — 46.5

12 p.m.

San Francisco 49ers — 46

Minnesota Vikings — -4.5

12 p.m.

Cincinnati Bengals — 46.5

Indianapolis Colts — -3

12 p.m.

Buffalo Bills — 41.5

Baltimore Ravens — -4.5

12 p.m.

Jacksonville Jaguars — -3.5

New York Giants — 44

12 p.m.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — 49.5

New Orleans Saints — -8.5

12 p.m.

Houston Texans — 51

New England Patriots — -6.5

12 p.m.

Tennessee Titans — -2.5

Miami Dolphins — 46

3:05 p.m.

Kansas City Chiefs — 47.5

Los Angeles Chargers — -3

3:05 p.m.

Seattle Seahawks — 42

Denver Broncos — -2

3:25 p.m.

Dallas Cowboys — 44.5

Carolina Panthers — -2.5

3:25 p.m.

Washington Redskins — 44

Arizona Cardinals — -1

7:20 p.m.

Chicago Bears — 48

Green Bay Packers — -8.5

Sept. 10

6:10 p.m.

New York Jets — 44

Detroit Lions — -6.5

9:20 p.m.

Los Angeles Rams — -3

Oakland Raiders — 49.5

Super Bowl odds

New England Patriots — 6/1

Pittsburgh Steelers — 10/1

Philadelphia Eagles — 10/1

Minnesota Vikings — 10/1

Green Bay Packers — 14/1

New Orleans Saints — 14/1

Atlanta Falcons — 16/1

Dallas Cowboys — 30/1

Los Angeles Rams — 10/1

Seattle Seahawks — 50/1

San Francisco 49ers — 30/1

Jacksonville Jaguars — 16/1

Houston Texans — 16/1

Carolina Panthers — 40/1

Los Angeles Chargers — 16/1

Kansas City Chiefs — 20/1

Oakland Raiders — 18/1

Detroit Lions — 50/1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — 100/1

Baltimore Ravens — 50/1

Tennessee Titans — 25/1

Indianapolis Colts — 60/1

Arizona Cardinals — 100/1

Denver Broncos — 40/1

New York Giants — 25/1

Washington Redskins — 100/1

Miami Dolphins — 80/1

Chicago Bears — 100/1

New York Jets — 80/1

Buffalo Bills — 80/1

Cleveland Browns — 80/1

Cincinnati Bengals — 80/1