Why the Pelicans still have a shot at reaching the NBA playoffs
There aren’t many litmus tests left for handicappers trying to evaluate playoff readiness for the New Orleans Pelicans. At the moment, Zion Williamson and company look to be a “tweener” that’s clearly playoff caliber when compared to non-contenders…but doesn’t seem likely to win a playoff series given results vs. other obvious playoff teams.
Last week’s home-and-home challenge vs. the Los Angeles Lakers drove that point home. New Orleans (+7.5) lost at Staples Center 118-109, then New Orleans (-1.5) lost at home to the Lakers 122-114 even though Anthony Davis had to sit out with a mild injury. L.A. won crunch time in both.
Yes, it’s a great sign for the future that the young Pelicans are already competing for the bulk of 48-minute battles with the current top Western Conference seed. The next step is going all the way to the wire, followed by winning.
Before those two quick meetings, New Orleans had also lost (and failed to cover market expectations) vs. Oklahoma City, Milwaukee, Houston, and Denver. The only win against a team entering this week with a winning record came vs. Boston. Try winning a best-of-seven playoff series with that success rate.
Even with multiple disappointing results vs. elites, the Pelicans still have a real chance to reach the Western Conference brackets. After their next road trip ends vs. playoff locks March 13 at Utah and March 14 at the LA Clippers, New Orleans will play 12 straight games against opponents that entered this week with a losing record.
The streak of a dozen ends with a home game vs. Philadelphia. But, then the final two games of the season Washington and San Antonio restart the trend. Fourteen of the Pellies last 15 games could come against sub .500 teams.
To give you sense of market expectations for the postseason, the respected Westgate in Las Vegas has New Orleans at 60/1 to win the NBA championship. Yes, that’s a longshot. But, current No. 8 seed Memphis is 500/1!
If you’re wondering about the big picture: Milwaukee 9/4, Los Angeles Lakers 11/4, L.A. Clippers 11/4, Houston 14/1, Boston 18/1, Denver 20/1, Toronto 30/1, Philadelphia 40/1, Miami 40/1, Utah 40/1, Dallas 40/1, New Orleans 60/1, Oklahoma City 100/1, Indiana 100/1, Memphis 500/1, Brooklyn 1000/1, Orlando 5000/1.
Using percentage equivalents (for each team, divide the number on the right by the sum of the two numbers), you can see that the Bucks, Lakers, and Clippers gobble up almost all of the win probability. Milwaukee’s at 31%, the Lakers and Clippers at 27% apiece. That’s 85% right there. Remember that sports books build a universe larger than 100% to create a house edge.
VSiN looks forward to covering the Pelicans’ playoff chase for you in the coming weeks from a market perspective.
XFL notes
▪ More good news to report for former Ole Miss quarterback Jordan Ta’amu and his St. Louis Battlehawks. Though, that’s only regarding the straight up 23-16 win over Seattle. Markets are showing Ta’amu so much respect that the Battlehawks may have trouble consistently covering spreads. They were a pricey -11.5 at close in this past Saturday’s victory.
Backers might have to root for Ta’amu on the money line, or against individual player props. He was 20-27-0-264 passing last week, and added 63 rushing yards on 16 scampers.
St. Louis leads the XFL East with a 3-1 record, one game ahead of the D.C. Defenders and New York Guardians. The BattleHawks already own a win over New York. They could grab control of the division this Sunday with a road victory at D.C. (FS1, 2 p.m.)
Ta’amu and teammates are still the second-favorite to win the XFL championship according to futures prices posted at Caesar’s Casino and Sportsbook: Houston 5/4, St. Louis 5/2, Los Angeles 6/1, D.C. 7/1, Dallas 7/1, Tampa Bay 12/1, New York 15/1, Seattle 18/1.
College basketball notes
Though major college basketball conferences don’t begin their postseason tournaments until next week, many mid-majors will determine their automatic bids to the Big Dance in the next few days.
If you’re planning to bet March Madness from beginning to end, remember these tips for handicapping mid-major tournaments…
▪ If you don’t follow a conference during the regular season, don’t pretend you’re an expert in its tournament! Casual followers should wait until next week for teams they’re more familiar with. Or, start watching first round action and reading box scores with an eye toward making smart bets in later rounds.
▪ Remember that elite teams in lesser leagues are much less likely to get caught napping in their tournaments. Many of these conferences are one-bid leagues where only the champion Dances. Save your dramatic upset calls against top seeds for next week.
▪ Study minute loads and bench contributions for teams that must play on consecutive days. Short rotations are at a disadvantage in such tournament formats. In later rounds, bet on teams that won’t tire. Bet against fast-paced teams that are likely to wear down from fatigue.
▪ Be sure to note that the three-point line is deeper than in the past. Easy to forget if you’re a late-starter because you waited for football to end. Offensive efficiency is down across the sport for many reasons triggered by the change in distance. Backing offenses that can score inside consistently should be a sound approach. Make sure you know who those are.